Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings: Position-by-Position Breakdown

Perhaps no player better sums up the frustrating nature of fantasy football than Ray Rice.

The Baltimore Ravens running back has struggled all season long and has scored double-digit fantasy points just twice. His coach, John Harbaugh, even said that Rice was struggling with a hip injury and that usage at the running back position in Baltimore would be based on performance, opening up the door for Bernard Pierce to earn more playing time.

So, justifiably, many owners sat Rice this week. And he promptly accrued 148 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, good for 20.8 fantasy points in standard-scoring leagues. 

That's fantasy, folks. More often than not, it surprises you. But ultimately, projecting results for individual players is a careful balance of measuring their talent against the matchup they are facing and playing the percentages. You never know how a player will perform from week to week, but you can make educated guesses.

Here, I've provided my list of educated guesses for the top 10 at every position this week in fantasy football. And no, I didn't include Rice—we'll see if he proves me wrong again versus a tough New York Jets run defense. 

Notes: All point totals for standard-scoring leagues. Points against stats via ESPN. The Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Cincinnati Bengals and Seattle Seahawks are on bye. 

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Drew Brees	New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons	30
2	Matt Stafford	Detroit Lions	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	26
3	Tony Romo	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	25
4	Peyton Manning	Denver Broncos	New England Patriots	24
5	Tom Brady	New England Patriots	Denver Broncos	20
6	Andrew Luck	Indianapolis Colts	Arizona Cardinals	17
7	Colin Kaepernick	San Francisco 49ers	Washington	17
8	Cam Newton	Carolina Panthers	Miami Dolphins	15
9	Robert Griffin III	Washington	San Francisco 49ers	15
10	Alex Smith	Kansas City Chiefs	San Diego Chargers	14

Quarterback Notes

Byes will strip owners of Nick Foles, Russell Wilson and Andy Dalton this week, while injuries could keep Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler sidelined. So once again, this is a week to trust your studs.

Drew Brees is going to torch the Atlanta Falcons, a team that has given up 17 or more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in eight of 10 weeks, while Matt Stafford, Tony Romo, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck are trustworthy just about every week.

Despite struggling this year, Colin Kaepernick makes the list against a Washington defense that is giving up 274.9 passing yards per game, 26th in the NFL. Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III each have tough matchups, but the upside they possess due to their scrambling ability makes them tough to sit. 

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Matt Forte	Chicago Bears	St. Louis Rams	25
2	Frank Gore	San Francisco 49ers	Washington	24
3	Adrian Peterson	Minnesota Vikings	Green Bay Packers	21
4	Chris Johnson	Tennessee Titans	Oakland Raiders	20
5	Zac Stacy	St. Louis Rams	Chicago Bears	20
6	Jamaal Charles	Kansas City Chiefs	San Diego Chargers	19
7	Eddie Lacy	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	15
8	Knowshon Moreno	Denver Broncos	New England Patriots	14
9	Rashad Jennings	Oakland Raiders	Tennessee Titans	13
10	Ben Tate	Houston Texans	Jacksonville Jaguars	13

Running Back Notes

The Chicago Bears have given up 20 or more fantasy points to opposing running backs in six of the past seven weeks. In his last four games, Zac Stacy has registered double-digit fantasy points, and he's scored at least seven points in six straight contests. In other words, he is a brilliant start for owners this week.

Washington has given up 18 fantasy points to opposing running backs a whopping nine times this season, so Frank Gore has huge upside. Adrian Peterson was contained by the Seattle Seahawks, but he should have more success against the Green Bay Packers. Ditto for Jamaal Charles against the San Diego Chargers.

The big surprises are Rashad Jennings and Ben Tate making the rankings. Even if Darren McFadden returns from injury this week, Jennings has earned a huge role in Oakland's offense after notching 340 rushing yards and two touchdowns the past three weeks.

Meanwhile, Tate faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has allowed 19 or more fantasy points to opposing running backs six times this season, though they have tightened up in that department in their two games after a Week 9 bye. Expect Tate to end that trend, however, and have a big afternoon. 

Wide Receiver

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27
2	Andre Johnson	Houston Texans	Jacksonville Jaguars	22
3	Josh Gordon	Cleveland Browns	Pittsburgh Steelers	20
4	Dez Bryant	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	19
5	Demaryius Thomas	Denver Broncos	New England Patriots	18
6	Jordy Nelson	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	16
7	Brandon Marshall	Chicago Bears	St. Louis Rams	16
8	Victor Cruz	New York Giants	Dallas Cowboys	14
9	Larry Fitzgerald	Arizona Cardinals	Indianapolis Colts	14
10	Marques Colston	New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons	13

Wide Receiver Notes

Calvin Johnson has 112 fantasy points in his last four games. To put that in perspective, that would have tied him with Justin Blackmon as the 30th-ranked wide receiver in fantasy football for the entirety of the 2012 season.

I don't care if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers clone Darrelle Revis and double-team Megatron with the original Revis Island and his copy—Johnson will get his. He always does. At this point, he's making a strong case as the most valuable player in all of fantasy football. 

A lot of people questioned Josh Gordon's inclusion on this list last week, and it's possible some folks will question his placement this week, too. Folks, Gordon is a locked and loaded WR1 who has seven or more fantasy points in six of eight games and has reached double-digit points in five of those contests. Doubt him at your own peril. 

And would you look at that—some old favorites in fantasy football circles, Larry Fitzgerald and Marques Colston, make this week's list, too. Each have solid matchups, and Colston seems reborn, with 12 receptions for 187 yards and a touchdowns in his past two games. Look for him to torch the Falcons, especially with Jimmy Graham ailing.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Vernon Davis	San Francisco 49ers	Washington	18
2	Rob Gronkowski	New England Patriots	Denver Broncos	17
3	Julius Thomas	Denver Broncos	New England Patriots	15
4	Jimmy Graham	New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons	13
5	Jason Witten	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	12
6	Tony Gonzalez	Atlanta Falcons	New Orleans Saints	12
7	Rob Housler	Arizona Cardinals	Indianapolis Colts	10
8	Delanie Walker	Tennessee Titans	Oakland Raiders	9
9	Jordan Cameron	Cleveland Browns	Pittsburgh Steelers	9
10	Charles Clay	Miami Dolphins	Carolina Panthers	8

Tight End Notes

Speaking of Graham, yes, I'm a bit worried.

Drew Brees is still looking his way—he has 11 receptions for 100 yards the past two weeks—but he's suddenly become touchdown reliant for fantasy production, something he wasn't to start the season. (He posted five 100-yard receiving games in New Orleans' first eight games.)

He's not a player you can afford to sit, but it's time to start tempering expectations.

Beyond that, the only potential surprise here is Arizona's Rob Housler, who has 10 receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown in the past two weeks. He's definitely a guy worth scooping up if he's available in your league, especially with Martellus Bennett trending downward and Antonio Gates facing a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has given up one touchdown to opposing tight ends all season.

Defense/Special Teams

Rank	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Carolina Panthers	Miami Dolphins	18
2	San Francisco 49ers	Washington	17
3	Tennessee Titans	Oakland Raiders	17
4	Kansas City Chiefs	San Diego Chargers	15
5	Baltimore Ravens	New York Jets	14
6	New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons	12
7	St. Louis Rams	Chicago Bears	10
8	Houston Texans	Jacksonville Jaguars	10
9	Chicago Bears	St. Louis Rams	9
10	Miami Dolphins	Carolina Panthers	8

Defense/Special Team Notes

With two of the top fantasy defenses—Seattle and Cincinnati—on bye this week, you might have to get a bit creative. 

Baltimore against Geno Smith and a pretty poor New York Jets offense? A nice play. The Houston Texans against a poor Jacksonville offense? Pick them up. The Chicago Bears against Kellen Clemens? Sounds good. 

If you have Carolina, Kansas City or San Francisco, you shouldn't be afraid to start them this week. After that, don't be afraid to take a chance. 

Kickers

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Matt Prater	Denver Broncos	New England Patriots	15
2	Stephen Gostkowski	New England Patriots	Denver Broncos	14
3	Mason Crosby	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	12
4	Garrett Hartley	New Orleans Saints	Atlanta Falcons	12
5	Dan Bailey	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	11
6	Ryan Succop	Kansas City Chiefs	San Diego Chargers	10
7	Robbie Gould	Chicago Bears	St. Louis Rams	10
8	Adam Vinatieri	Indianapolis Colts	Arizona Cardinals	9
9	Shaun Suisham	Pittsburgh Steelers	Cleveland Browns	8
10	Justin Tucker	Baltimore Ravens	New York Jets	8

Kicker Notes

Let's be honest, trying to project kickers is like trying to guess how many jelly beans are in a jar. You can take into account the volume of the jar and the relative size of the jelly beans, but in the end, you're just tossing up a guess. 

It's no different with kickers. You study their previous production, note whether they've struggled of late or not and take into account the matchup and how many chances they might have for field goals or extra points. 

But ultimately, it's just a guess. Find a guy you trust and stick with him until he regresses. No position is more replaceable in fantasy football than kicker.

Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy lineup questions, tweet random fantasy musings and lament Ray Rice producing the week I finally benched him.