NFL Week 11 Predictions: Can't-Miss Picks and Matchup Guide

Week 11 of 2013 NFL season is just around the corner, making this the perfect opportunity to analyze the updated lines, hit the sportsbook and make a bet.

If you aren’t sure which direction to lean or which team you should back, don’t worry as I have you covered.

Keep reading to find the point spreads for each contest and my picks for every game on the upcoming slate, plus a handful of can’t-miss matchups where you will want to bet big.

Away Team	Home Team	Line	Prediction (ATS)
Indianapolis Colts	Tennessee Titans	IND -3	IND
Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	ATL -1	TB
New York Jets	Buffalo Bills	BUF -1	NYJ
Detroit Lions	Pittsburgh Steelers	DET -2.5	DET
Washington Redskins	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -3	PHI
San Diego Chargers	Miami Dolphins	PK	MIA
Baltimore Ravens	Chicago Bears	CHI -4	CHI
Cleveland Browns	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -5.5	CLE
Oakland Raiders	Houston Texans	HOU -7	HOU
Arizona Cardinals	Jacksonville Jaguars	ARI -6.5	ARI
Kansas City Chiefs	Denver Broncos	DEN -8	KC
Minnesota Vikings	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -13.5	SEA
Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	NYG -3.5	GB
San Francisco 49ers	New Orleans Saints	NO -3	NO
New England Patriots	Carolina Panthers	CAR -2.5	NE

Indianapolis Colts (-3) over Tennessee Titans

This Thursday Night Football showdown involves two AFC South rivals looking to turn things around on a short week after embarrassing losses.

The St. Louis Rams blew out the Colts, as Indianapolis generated a mere eight points in a 30-point loss. Despite the ugly nature of that defeat, the Titans' failure against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars is arguably worse.

The Jags had not won a game until this past Sunday, but they capitalized on Tennessee signal-caller Jake Locker’s injury and four turnovers by the Titans offense to clinch a 29-27 victory.

Locker’s absence is going to be the difference-maker in this one, even though second-string quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t been horrible in his limited appearances.

Unfortunately, Fitzpatrick just doesn’t have the arm strength, accuracy or decision-making skills necessary to lead his team back from a deficit.

Considering the Titans have looked vulnerable to the passing game—when they match up with decent quarterbacks—it’s going to be hard for them to stop Luck from generating points.

Even though Reggie Wayne is out for the season and the Colts' vertical passing attack hasn’t been as effective, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect the team to get it jump-started on Thursday.

Don’t be surprised when Indianapolis jumps out to a big early lead on the road and doesn’t relinquish it for the rest of the evening, easily covering the spread and winning straight up.

  

Kansas City Chiefs (+8) over Denver Broncos

This marquee contest features the last remaining undefeated team going up against an AFC West foe that many have tabbed to win the Super Bowl at the end of this season.

While the Chiefs currently haven’t loss a game and have handled all comers, the oddsmakers have disrespected this squad and anointed it a touchdown-plus underdog ahead of this Mile High showdown.

That is a recipe for an upset, as Kansas City is skilled enough to win this outright and has extra motivation to do exactly that.

The main reason why K.C. has been so successful in 2013 is its ability to protect the rock while forcing takeaways on the other side of the ball. The team leads that category with 23 forced turnovers, compared to just eight giveaways through nine games.

There is no reason to doubt that the Chiefs can continue that style of play against the Broncos. Future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning has proved to be human over the past few weeks, dealing with a multitude of injuries to his aging ankles.

As long as the Chiefs force at least one crucial turnover and don’t cough up the rock, they should be in position to win this one late in the game. That means an easy cover and potential payday for those who back them on the money line.

 

New England Patriots (+2.5) over Carolina Panthers

The Patriots are coming into this one as a rare underdog, as the only other time they have gone into a game as one this season was back in Week 4 against the Atlanta Falcons, according to Covers.com.

New England has proven time and time again that it can handle the difficulties of a road matchup, especially in prime time. Quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick are two of the best in their field at prepping for a game and will undoubtedly be ready for this one against a surging Panthers squad.

Carolina may not have conceded more than 15 points to an opponent since Week 5, but it is a sure bet that the Pats snap that streak on Monday Night Football.

The Patriots are coming off a week of rest that has given their banged-up roster time to rest after a 7-2 start to the campaign. Monday could also mark the much-anticipated return of versatile back Shane Vereen, who has been out since the opener with a wrist injury.

While the Panthers deserve plenty of credit for holding the San Francisco 49ers to a mere nine points, they haven’t faced an offense with the explosive potential of New England’s.

There is a good chance they are caught off guard by that and that Carolina head coach Ron Rivera is completely outclassed by Belichick in the sideline chess match.

Expect the Pats to not only cover here but also outright win in a big way.