Last week, I gave you not one, not two but THREE choices for your survivor pool. Why? Because I'm that kind of guy.
And guess what? They all won. Why? Because I know what the hell I'm talking about. That is, of course, until I don't, but I'm not the type to let the facts get in the way of a good story.
Before we get into the possible choices, a word about survivor pools: I generally try and avoid taking road teams. That eliminates attractive options such as the Patriots (at NY Jets) and Chargers (at Jacksonville). If a bad team is going to win a game, chances are, it'll do it in front of its home fans. Avoid road teams if you can.
Don't even consider taking the Falcons. They will likely win Tampa, but as I detailed a few slides earlier, both teams are bad and you cannot hitch your wagons to a 1-4 team.
That leaves three teams to potentially select: the Packers (hosting Cleveland), the Chiefs (hosting Houston) or the Dolphins (hosting Buffalo).
Out of those three, I believe the Packers are the biggest lock to win. There's simply no way that Brandon Weeden is going into Lambeau Field and beating Aaron Rodgers. There's a better chance of Brandon Weeden starting Opening Day for the Yankees in 2014 than him beating Aaron Rodgers on Sunday.
Now, onto actual gambling.
Always be weary of the "home underdog." Teams that play at home have an obvious advantage, and when you have two evenly matched teams and the road squad is favored, more often than not the home team will come out on top.
Keep that in mind when you peruse the spread for Chicago/Washington. As of right now, the game is "pick 'em," meaning you only need to choose a winner. And by game time, the Bears will probably be favored.
You know what that means. The fountain at the Bellagio didn't appear out of thin air. It was built with the dollars of schmucks who loved the road favorite.
Don't be a schmuck. Watch the line movement and wager accordingly.