Star-Struck: Which Sixth Round Quarterback Will Become a Star?

In my article showing how draft round affects a quarterback’s career performance, I saw that sixth round quarterbacks perform almost as well as third rounders in their careers.

That conclusion wasn’t just due to Tom Brady—Matt Hasselbeck, Jeff Blake, Marc Bulger, Mark Rypien, Stan Humphries, and Steve Bono were among those selected along with Brady in the sixth round.

From 1985 to 2004, there were 38 quarterbacks taken in the sixth; 12 of them never played in the NFL. But of the 26 that did, seven started for five or more years and six went to at least one Pro Bowl (a total of 13 Pro Bowls between those six), and those 26 QBs combined for a career 77.9 passer rating.

Of course, those numbers are less if you assign a replacement-level value to those players who did not take a snap.

This year, Tom Brandstater, Mike Teel, Keith Null, and Curtis Painter were taken in the sixth. Assuming all take an NFL snap, one player will start five years and another will be selected to two Pro Bowls. The question is, Who will it be?


Tom Brandstater (Fresno State)

Selected by Denver as the first pick of the sixth round, Brandstater should have no trouble competing for a starting job. The Broncos’ only two quarterbacks on their current roster are Kyle Orton and Chris Simms.

Brandstater has good size and bulk (6′ 5″ and 220 pounds), but he has an average arm strength and makes too many bad decisions. He was intercepted 12 times in 371 attempts in his senior season last year. His pocket awareness is not too good either, as he was sacked 17 times each of the past two seasons.

Brandstater doesn’t have the skills to be a starter in the NFL, but he may have the best opportunity to start out of the four sixth round quarterbacks.

 
Mike Teel (Rutgers)

While some pundits thought the Seahawks would take Mark Sanchez in the first round, Seattle took linebacker Aaron Curry and settled with Teel in the sixth. Teel was intercepted 49 times in his 1,142 career attempts, or 24 interceptions in 550 attempts. Teel has very poor decision-making, and I don’t see this pick as anything but a project.

Matt Hasselbeck only has a few years left in him. Teel may be asked to step in when he is done, but I don’t see him as anything special. Seattle would be wiser to choose to take over for Hasselbeck Seneca Wallace, who had a passer rating of 87 when filling in for an injured Hasselbeck last year.

 
Keith Null (West Texas A&M)

Drafted by St. Louis to apparently be the heir to Marc Bulger, Null put up terrific college stats in his two years as a starter for West Texas A&M. Null had over 5,000 yards last year with 48 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, and he had a completion percentage over 67 in both of his years starting.

But his arm strength is nothing to be proud of, and Null—who took most snaps out of shotgun—often had four receivers to throw to on every down. Null does not have the physical tools needed to be successful in the NFL.

The Rams currently have Kyle Boller and Brock Berlin backing up Bulger. While Null may be the Rams’ No. 2 QB going into the season, he won’t be able to face NFL defenses after two years in Division II.

 
Curtis Painter (Purdue)

Of the four quarterbacks picked in the sixth round, Painter has the best chance to be a Pro Bowler. Coming into the season, Painter would have been a first or second round pick, but a poor senior season dropped him to the sixth round.

Painter is experienced and has excellent size (6′ 3″, 225 pounds), but scouts say he locks onto his receivers too much and makes too many poor reads.

In his senior year, he had the same number of interceptions (11) as he had the year before, despite 190 fewer pass attempts. Painter finished his college career with a completion percentage of 59.9.

Though Painter has to wait five or six years for Peyton Manning, who’s 33, to retire, five or six years as Manning’s backup can only be good for Painter—just look what it did to Matt Cassel in New England.

Painter would be about 29 when Peyton retires, and there’s no doubt in my mind that he’d be able to put up three or four 3,000-yard seasons.