Mike Mayock 2013 Mock Draft: Complete Results and Analysis

NFL Network draft expert Mike Mayock is among the most respected analysts in the business. His picks don’t always toe the line of conventional wisdom, but he certainly offers some interesting insights into what we will see on draft day.

As he does every year, Mayock released a final mock draft for this year’s first round. And in keeping with the theme of his mock drafts in recent years, there are some surprising selections to analyze.

This year’s draft could be one of the most unpredictable we've seen in some time, and analyzing any mock draft may prove to be a futile endeavor when all is said and done. Still, there’s an inherent value in breaking down all the possibilities—vast though they may be.

Given Mayock’s football background and extensive research of prospects’ game tape, many of his projections could prove to be as accurate as any we've seen leading up to the draft.

One of the biggest surprises of Mayock’s final mock draft effort is the exclusion of Florida State cornerback Xavier Rhodes and Florida International safety Jonathan Cyprien. Both widely considered first-round locks, the duo may fall out of the first round this year—or least Mayock thinks they will.

Let’s take a look at his final mock draft and break it down pick by pick.

1. Kansa City Chiefs: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

It looks more and more likely Kansas City will opt for an offensive tackle with the first pick. The problem is discerning which of the top two tackles that will be.

In the months leading up to the draft, Luke Joeckel appeared to be the most likely candidate, but the talk has now shifted in Eric Fisher’s direction. While this pick is still very much up in the air, the thought of K.C. taking Fisher isn’t a big surprise.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

The Jaguars aren’t desperate at the left tackle position, but Mayock does point out the need to get Blaine Gabbert on track. The best way to do that is to provide the young signal-caller better protection on his blindside.

It’s not unlikely that another team attempts to trade up to No. 2 to snag the Texas A&M product, either. Jacksonville may not ultimately draft Joeckel, but there’s a good chance someone does with the second pick.

3. Oakland Raiders: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

Florida defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd is a popular projection for the Oakland Raiders here. Though Mayock rates Floyd his best defensive player (certainly not the consensus among analysts), there’s reason to believe Oakland will select him at No. 3. The scheme fit may be too good to pass up.

4. Philadelphia Eagles: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

There’s little doubt Johnson doesn't make it past Arizona at No. 7. The Eagles have needs on the defensive side of the ball, but Mayock’s explanation for this pick makes a lot of sense.

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He's the freakiest tackle I've ever seen in my life. And because of what Chip Kelly does—up-tempo, maximize snaps, throw the bubble screens, throw the tunnel screens—he needs a great athlete at left tackle.

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As crazy as this draft is shaping up to be, this is one of the more intriguing pairings in his mock draft.

5. Detroit Lions: Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU

Expect to see a lot of trades on Day 1. Should a team trade up for one of the top three tackles in this class, Detroit’s pick will be a whole lot harder to predict.

Up to this point, Mayock’s selections make enough sense. If Johnson is off the board, Ezekiel Ansah is a reasonable consolation prize. The Lions certainly need help at the defensive end position.

6. Cleveland Browns: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

Toeing the line between personal opinion and accurate prognostication is a tall order. Mayock's pick is proof of that:

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When I look at Geno, I see a kid who's got everything you want to see in a franchise quarterback, but there's just too much bad tape. I would not take him this early; I would go for an edge or a corner. However, I really think Joe Banner might pull the trigger on the quarterback from West Virginia.

 

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With Norv Turner and Rob Chudzinski in town, the Browns are likely to target a quarterback who can stretch the field with downfield accuracy. And while Mayock’s assessment of Smith's potential is spot-on, it’s hard to imagine Cleveland giving up on Brandon Weeden after one season. 

7. Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina

Conventional wisdom goes out the window when projecting draft picks. NFL general managers are inherently unpredictable when the chips are down.

I fully expect the Cardinals to make a move on draft day in an attempt to draft Lane Johnson ahead of the Lions (and potentially the Eagles), but it’s not unreasonable for them to settle for one of the draft’s top guards.

8. Buffalo Bills: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

Buffalo needs another quality receiver to pair with Steve Johnson (as Mayock points out in his explanation), and Tavon Austin’s name has been bandied about as the top receiver in this class.

Cordarrelle Patterson still makes more sense here, but it’s not unfathomable to hear Austin’s name called at No. 8.

9. New York Jets: Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon

Dion Jordan falling out of the top five is one of the more unlikely scenarios in this mock draft. Easily the most versatile defender in this class, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Detroit and Cleveland will have a hard time passing on him in the top six.

10. Tennessee Titans: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

Dee Milliner talk has been losing steam in the last week. He’s easily the best cornerback in this class, but concerns about his surgically-repaired shoulder may facilitate a slide down the board in the first round.

That said, the Alabama product could be available here for the Titans. They need help at the position, and Mayock isn’t off base in his assessment that Milliner could be a tremendous playmaker in the NFL.

11. San Diego Chargers: Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama

The unusual aspect surrounding this pick is the order in which the top two guards come off the board. Cooper is an exceptional talent, but it’s still hard to see him come off the board before Chance Warmack.

There’s no denying San Diego’s offensive line needs, though. Whether it’s Cooper, Johnson or Warmack, the Chargers will almost certainly take an offensive lineman here.

12. Miami Dolphins: D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

Like San Diego, Miami needs some help on its offensive line. Should the Dolphins trade for Branden Albert (as has been the speculation recently, via NFL.com), D.J. Fluker becomes a bit of a reach at No. 12. Teams don’t typically use a top selection on a player relegated to playing right tackle in the NFL.

13. New York Jets: Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

I’m not sure Tyler Eifert finds a home in the first round. The need and fit with New York make a lot of sense, but it’s highly unlikely the Jets take him at No. 13, especially with a receiver like Patterson still on the board.

Paired with New York’s needs on the defensive side of the ball, it’s far more likely general manager Dan Idzik takes either a defender or a quarterback here.

14. Carolina Panthers: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

Projecting the middle of the first round is nearly impossible this year, but this pick makes a ton of sense. Carolina needs to get stronger on the interior of its defensive line and Sheldon Richardson is a much better fit in a one-gap scheme than Star Lotulelei.

15. New Orleans Saints: Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU

Barkevious Mingo’s final landing spot could be anywhere from No. 2 to No. 17. Despite his freakish athleticism and high ceiling, the LSU product is extremely raw and will need a lot of polish to be an elite NFL pass-rusher.

Still, the Saints need edge-rushers in a bad way. If Mingo makes it past the Jets at No. 13, there’s no reason to believe this won’t happen.

16. St. Louis Rams: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

This is another strong pick from Mayock. St. Louis has vacancies at both safety positions and Kenny Vaccaro can go a long way toward plugging one of those holes for years to come. The only other plausible scenario is for the Rams to select a wide receiver like Patterson.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

If Jarvis Jones falls this far, the Pittsburgh Steelers will have to pull the trigger. As Mayock points out in his explanation, he’s the type of pass-rusher Pittsburgh loves.

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I keep looking at Jarvis Jones on tape, and I don't care as much about the potential medical issues, I don't care that he ran 4.9. This kid plays football. He's explosive. He's a quick-twitch guy in short areas, and he reminds me a little bit of a LaMarr Woodley or a James Harrison. I just think he fits what Pittsburgh does.

 

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If Vaccaro goes off the board at No. 16, this pick is a no-brainer.

18. Dallas Cowboys: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

This may be the most unconventional pick in Mayock’s mock draft. While it’s certainly plausible that Dallas takes Lotulelei should he be available, I just don’t see that being the case. The Utah product is just too good to fall to No. 18, and he’s a much better fit in a two-gap scheme like the one Dallas used to run.

19. New York Giants: Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse

I take that back. This is the most unconventional pick in this mock draft, but it’s also one of the exciting scenarios we see every year: There are always players who make their way into the first round after being considered a Day 2 prospect.

New York has too many needs to select a right tackle (who may be a better fit at guard) with the No. 19 pick, though. A defensive end, linebacker or cornerback are far more likely to be selected.

20. Chicago Bears: Manti Te’o, ILB, Notre Dame

This may not be a popular pick, but it makes some sense. The Bears need a replacement for Brian Urlacher, and there are some terrific inside linebackers in this draft class.

That said, Te’o isn’t the best option for a 4-3 defense predicated on a lot of Cover 2 schemes—or any 4-3 for that matter. He’s simply too frail against the run and not athletic enough to consistently drop into deep-middle coverage from the inside linebacker position. Alec Ogletree and Arthur Brown are far more logical choices here, though Mayock isn’t off base with his analysis of Te’o’s skills and intangibles.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Eric Reid, S, LSU

Mayock presents and excellent argument for Cincinnati selecting Eric Reid with this pick. The need is there and Reid would be a terrific fit.

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I think he really fits the bill for them defensively. This is a bigger safety with great movement skills. He's a playmaker on the back end. I'd like to see him be a more consistent tackler, but trust me; being coached by Mike Zimmer, he will become one.

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With Fluker already off the board, it’s reasonable to expect a safety to be at the top of Cincinnati’s draft board.

22. St. Louis Rams: Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia

Should Patterson still be available, it’s probably more likely the Rams select him ahead of Alec Ogletree. However, St. Louis has needs at the linebacker position, and the Georgia product would be a good fit, especially this late in the first round.

23. Minnesota Vikings: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

Minnesota needs to add another wide receiver to pair with Greg Jennings, and Patterson is the best available. Given some concerns about the receiver’s rough edges, it’s entirely plausible he falls to No. 23.

24. Indianapolis Colts: D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston

D.J. Hayden’s name has been thrown about as a potential first-round pick in recent weeks, and it wouldn’t be unusual to see him drafted here. But is he a better option than Xavier Rhodes or Desmond Trufant?

That question is best left for Ryan Grigson to answer. The young general manager prefers the "best player available" approach, and if he rates Hayden near the top of his board, there’s no reason to believe this pick won’t become a reality on Thursday.

25. Minnesota Vikings: Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina

Given the Vikings need at defensive tackle and the availability of a tremendous run-stuffer in Sylvester Williams, this wouldn’t be a shocking pick. As Mayock points out in his explanation, the fit is perfect and the need is there.

26. Green Bay Packers: Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama

It would be unusual for the first round to not feature at least one running back, but the depth of this draft class is tremendous. Considering Green Bay’s needs on defense and its heavy focus on the passing game, it’s a little more likely Ted Thompson selects a defender with this pick.

However, this would also be an excellent opportunity for a team to trade up for Lacy. There’s a good chance Lacy is chosen here—just by a different team.

27. Houston Texans: Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee

This would be an excellent pick for the Texans. And there’s nothing to disagree with in Mayock’s assessment.

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I can't figure a better landing spot for a young wide receiver than in the same room with Andre Johnson. He drops too many balls and he's not tough over the middle. That's where I think Andre Johnson comes into play. This kid has all kinds of ability, and if he replicates his game, he'll turn into a professional, just like Andre.

 

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Johnson would certainly aid in Hunter’s development, but the symbiotic nature of such a relationship is the biggest selling point. Houston needs another big-play receiver to take the pressure off Johnson in the passing game, and the Tennessee product would be an excellent choice.

28. Denver Broncos: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

Elvis Dumervil’s departure made defensive end a popular projection here. That’s exactly what Mayock cites in his analysis, and he’s not wrong. The Broncos need to replace Dumervil’s production, and they need to do it through the draft.

29. New England Patriots: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

The rich get richer according to Mayock as Bill Belichick and the Patriots strengthen their secondary by adding one of the most physical cornerbacks in this year's class.

Mayock states:

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They're ecstatic when Rhodes falls all the way to No. 29. He's 6-foot, 210 pounds with long arms; he's the ultimate press corner. I think this kid can develop off-man skills. I think he understands zone concepts and he fits what today's NFL is.

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30. Atlanta Falcons: Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes are no longer on Atlanta’s roster, and the Falcons needs to find suitable replacements in a hurry. Given the availability of two standout cornerbacks in Trufant and Rhodes, there’s a good chance the Falcons would roll the dice on one of them with this pick.

31. San Francisco 49ers: Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford

There isn’t a pick Mayock could project here that wouldn’t make sense. With 13 picks in this draft, San Francisco is likely to do just about anything in the first round.

Pairing Zach Ertz with Vernon Davis would make for a deadly tight end duo for the 49ers. Without any real sense of direction for San Francisco’s intentions, this pick makes as much sense as any.

32. Baltimore Ravens: Matt Elam, S, Florida

Baltimore needs to replace both Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard this offseason. Given Elam’s physicality, he would be an excellent replacement for Pollard.

Ozzie Newsome may ultimately decide to trade out of the first round (given Baltimore’s many needs), but if he chooses to stand pat with the 32nd pick, Elam is certainly a strong possibility.