Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Let's stick with the TD-dependency line of thought and extend it into the world of fantasy WRs. This is important to you right now for two reasons:
1. Trades are flying into your fantasy inbox like grenades. You do not want them to explode in your face.
You want to act quickly and decisively in getting the grenade tossed back into the fantasy bunker of your opponent. You do this by getting ahead of things and recognizing situations for what they are.
This is my biggest piece of advice for this week, so allow me to reiterate:
When thinking about a player's fantasy production through the first quarter of the fantasy season, think about not "what" they have scored, but "how" they have scored and "why" that is important.
This allows you to counter-offer with authority and keep your foxhole free of explosives.
2. These results were posted just prior to the Thursday night game, and as you will see, Andre Roberts of the Arizona Cardinals is dangerously TD-dependent.
As we saw on Thursday: No touchdown, no production. WR is historically the hardest fantasy position to project, simply because there are three of them for every one player at another position.
These sorts of trends are an absolute necessity to track, given the depth of the group.
Of the top 40 fantasy football WRs coming into Week 5, these are the 10 most dangerously touchdown-dependent:
1. Andre Roberts, Arizona Cardinals
2. James Jones, Green Bay Packers
3. Steve Johnson, Buffalo Bills
4. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
5. Mike Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6. Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers
7. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs
8. (Tie) Kevin Ogletree, Dallas Cowboys; Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans
10. Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens
Of the top 40 fantasy football WRs coming into Week 5, these are the 10 who are least reliant on TDs. When these players score touchdowns, it is the "cherry on top," and this group represents more dependable plays (relative to others at their slotting) moving forward due to this trend.
1. Wes Welker, New England Patriots
2. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers
3. Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings
4. Davone Bess, Miami Dolphins
5. Brian Hartline, Miami Dolphins
6. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
7. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles
8. Eric Decker, Denver Broncos
9. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints
10. (Tie) Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts; Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers; Brandon Lloyd, New England Patriots