Week 5 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Underdogs That Will Cover Your Bet

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The Cleveland Browns are 10-point underdogs in Week 5 against the New York Giants, and they are a sure-fire lock to cover that spread. 

The Browns aren't the only team being slighted by the oddsmakers, either. 

If we've learned anything through four games this season in the NFL, it's that this league isn't as lopsided as it has been in years past. There are only two or three truly elite teams, and the rest of the teams are fighting for a seat at the big-boys table.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the underdogs in Week 5 that are sure to cover your bet. 

 

Note: All betting information courtesy of FootballLocks.com

Packers -7 at Colts

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Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts have had two weeks to prepare for the Green Bay Packers, and seeing how the Packers have shown a weakness to getting burned by opponents' passing attacks, Luck should have a big game. 

Aaron Rodgers and company haven't inspired confidence thus far in 2012 either. Although the Colts defense has struggled, Jerry Hughes, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will have plenty of opportunities to get pressure on Rodgers. 

Furthermore, I expect the Colts to be playing with a bit of added inspiration after the news that head coach Chuck Pagano has been diagnosed with a treatable form of leukemia (via the Associated Press on CNNSI.com).

Finally, the Packers have been involved in close games the past two weeks (a two-point game and a one-point game)—a trend I expect to continue in Week 5. 

Browns at Giants (-10)

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The Cleveland Browns are 0-4, but this team has lost their games by a total of 25 points. Only one of their contests was decided by more than a touchdown—their 10-point loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 3. 

Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson are coming along nicely in their rookie campaigns. If you watched their Week 4 contest against the Baltimore Ravens, then you know this young team is more than capable of hanging with the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium.

Finally, if you need any further proof that this game isn't going to be a blowout, consider that the Giants have only won one game by more than a touchdown—the 36-7 beatdown they served to the Carolina Panthers in Week 3. 

The Browns have an underrated, stout defense that will challenge Eli Manning and his offense at every turn, and I won't be shocked if this game comes down to the wire. 

Dolphins at Bengals (-4.5)

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After getting blown out in the first week of the season, the Miami Dolphins have figured some things out. 

Even though the past two weeks have been tough for this young team—losing two games in a row in overtime—the Dolphins have what it takes to either win their Week 5 contest against the Cincinnati Bengals or at least keep it really close. 

Reggie Bush is averaging 5.5 yards per carry, and the Bengals defense is the worst in the league at stopping the run, giving up 5.4 yards per carry. 

Furthermore, the Bengals secondary is still suspect, and we all saw the way Ryan Tannehill and Brian Hartline tore up the Arizona Cardinals in Week 4. 

Given the way the Dolphins defense has shut teams down the past three weeks, don't be surprised if the Dolphins pull off the upset. At the least, they'll cover the spread. 

Broncos at Patriots (-7)

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Anyone expecting the New England Patriots to run away with this game needs to get their head examined. 

The Denver Broncos have lost twice this year, but their two losses came against the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans—the two best teams in the NFL.

Furthermore, the Broncos only lost those two games by a combined score of 12 points.

The Patriots dropped a huge number on the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, but don't expect Peyton Manning to throw four interceptions and the Broncos to turn the ball over six times. 

This game will be close the entire way, and there's a good chance the Broncos will win outright. 

 

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