Until Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James went down against the Houston Texans, Frank Gore was considered an RB3 talent in ADP trends over the summer. Moving into the fourth round, we should expect Gore to produce like a late RB2 as long as Jacobs is out of the lineup.
31. Trent Richardson (ADP 3.08)
Richardson is running again after another knee surgery at the start of August. The problem is that he’s running in a pool and not on land.
While the feeling is that Richardson will be active for Week 1, I have a hard time believing Montario Hardesty won’t be in the mix.
We should drop Richardson down to at least the fifth round in light of this recent news. Hardesty was a high-round draft pick in his own right, and if healthy, he can be a part of this running attack in 2012.
32. Michael Turner (ADP 4.05)
Not a fan of Turner landing in the fourth round, but I can respect someone for taking him in this range in a standard league. Turner will still be the goal-line runner, and that means we should expect double-digit touchdowns. Not as explosive as he once was, Turner will probably max out around 250 carries, but that should give him just over 1,000 yards on the ground.
If you're fine with that production over other options like Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson and Frank Gore, then Turner is probably your man.
33. Roddy White (ADP 3.08)
With all the talk about Julio Jones, it’s easy to forget that White is still a low-end WR1 option.
The Falcons will be throwing the football often, as Matt Ryan’s footwork and confidence seem to be at all-time high levels.
34. Greg Jennings (ADP 4.01)
Concussion problems early cost Jennings a few weeks of camp, but he’s back on the field now. With plenty of time to get ready for the season, Jennings is still a top-15 fantasy option at his position.
However, another concussion would probably cost him a decent amount of time, and that is why I suggest you look to him as a WR2 on draft day and not a WR1.
Backing him up with Randall Cobb in the later rounds wouldn’t be the worst idea.
35. Ahmad Bradshaw (ADP 4.09)
David Wilson is taking some reps with the first team this week, and we will see him work early in both the third and fourth preseason games. That makes sense, as Brandshaw had a minor hand injury last week and the Giants have no need to see what he can do in the final weeks of the preseason.
Wilson will be the future starter in New York and will probably have some wow runs this weekend.
Still, look to Bradshaw to have a nice first half of the season, as he has a favorable schedule the first five weeks.
36. Mike Wallace (ADP 5.08)
Expected back in camp by the weekend, Wallace will have an uphill battle to give you a respectable return on value at this point in the draft. His ADP has him projected as a late fifth-round pick, and I would look to him as more of a sixth-rounder.
It’s not a question of talent but more of football shape and picking up a new offense that concerns me with Wallace.
Antonio Brown should be the first Steelers receiver off the board in all scoring formats.
37. Fred Jackson (ADP 3.05)
Going a full round lower than his ADP trend, Jackson is a nice value in the fourth round. The Bills offense will likely be the same as it was a year ago. The passing attack will spread you out with four- and five-receiver sets while Jackson plays in the backfield.
Look for Spiller to get some carries, but most of his production will probably come as a receiver. Jackson is a much better runner between the tackles and will see the majority of carries.
38. Frank Gore (ADP 5.01)
Gore’s value should move up into the fourth round after Jacobs and James went down with injuries.
That said, make sure you handcuff Gore with Kendall Hunter. The second-year tailback has been impressive in camp and would be the starter if something should happen to Gore.
39. Victor Cruz (ADP 4.03)
A nice value at this point in the draft, Cruz is looking good in early preseason action. On one play Cruz flat beat Darrelle Revis on a nine route, but Eli Manning threw the pass just out of bounds. Cruz is one of the better receivers after the catch and will give defensive backs nightmares once again.
Don’t expect a down year from this talented receiver, even if Hakeem Nicks goes down with an injury or if defenses focus on him as the primary receiver to take away.
40. Donald Brown (ADP 6.07)
A stretch at this point in the draft, Donald Brown will be the starter in Indianapolis, but he’s going to work in a committee.
I think Brown can be a solid flex-play back, but he’s more of a seventh-round pick in 10-team leagues.
Keep an eye on rookie Vick Ballard—he’s having a good camp and would be a better fit for the Colts power run game down the road.
ADP comes courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.
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