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As long as he stays healthy and his fantasy scores will not be negatively affected by his musical stylings, Jay Cutler is in for a big fantasy season.
It is not as if Cutler has not had good fantasy numbers in the past—I may or may not have mentioned that he threw for over 4,500 yards the last time he had Brandon Marshall to throw to—but this could be the year he finally puts it all together for his fantasy owners.
There is no denying he is a talented quarterback, as Greg Cosell of NFL Films poignantly points out:
You may recall one issue raised in the evaluation process was Cutler’s tendency to force throws into coverage. Those who said that were wrong. Cutler was throwing to wide receivers matched one-on-one on the outside. Here’s the way it works in the passing game: The best you can get is man coverage. When that happens, the quarterback expects his receivers to get open. If your receivers do not win, it’s not the quarterback’s fault. At Vanderbilt, Cutler threw a lot of passes to receivers that could not win against more talented SEC corners. That was viewed erroneously as a troubling indication of poor judgment and decision making.
Don’t lose sight of one other point. The Bears were 7-3 when Cutler got hurt last season. Then they lost five in a row. All the talk had been about Matt Forte, how the offense ran through him, how he was the key. Again, perception suppressing reality.
Cutler, in many ways, is still a work in progress as he begins his fourth season in Chicago. He likely will always make some throws that seem ill-advised at best, and just plain foolish at worst. Those throws can’t be defended. They result from the belief and trust he has in his own ability. But make no mistake: Cutler is a “wow” passer with the ability to carry an offense, and a much better player than he’s perceived to be.
It is pretty clear that Cutler will be a major beneficiary of better receiver play. That means a breakout season is in store.
Cutler's output has been maddeningly inconsistent over the years. If you have ever owned him, you know about the occasional goose egg he has laid on your fantasy team. The good news is that he is not even being drafted as a starter right now according to his ADP, which mitigates the risk you will be taking.