AL Cy Young Award Rankings: Felix Hernandez Creeping Up Towards No. 1

Jun 7, 2018

At the All-Star break, three different American League pitchers had a legit claim to the No. 1 spot in my weekly Cy Young award rankings. I gave the top spot to Justin Verlander, but Chris Sale and Jered Weaver were both right there with him.

In the second half of the season, the key question as it pertains to the AL Cy Young race is which of those three pitchers is going to pull away from the rest of the pack. There's already been some movement on that front, which we'll get to in just a moment.

The other key question is whether a new challenger for the AL Cy Young will arise. And to that end, Seattle Mariners ace righty Felix Hernandez is starting to look like a guy to keep an eye on.

Hernandez went through some struggles earlier in June, but he's been money over his last six starts. He's looking a lot like the pitcher who won the AL Cy Young in 2010 despite winning just 13 games all season.

King Felix is slowly starting to creep towards the top of my weekly rankings. Here's a look at this week's top five.

Note: All stats are as of the start of play on Tuesday, July 17, and they all come from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Honorable Mentions

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Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox

Peavy was in my top five at the All-Star break, but he got lit up for six earned runs on 12 hits in seven innings against the Kansas City Royals to open the second half. He still boasts solid numbers across the board, but he can't match the numbers of the guys in this week's top five.

David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

Price started the second half in style, allowing two earned runs over 7.1 innings in a win against the Boston Red Sox. He's now 12-4 on the season with a 2.80 ERA, and he boasts solid periphery numbers as well. I thought very hard about moving him into the top five, but I decided against it. I'll explain why on the next slide.

CC Sabathia, New York Yankees

Sabathia hasn't started a game since June 24, so he has some catching up to do in the Cy Young race. That shouldn't be too hard. Sabathia is not having his best season, but he's tied for fifth among AL starters with a 2.8 WAR, according to FanGraphs. He hasn't been great, but he's been better than most.

C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels

Wilson has pitched well in his last four starts, lowering his ERA to 2.43 in the process. That's good for fourth in the American League. I'm just not sold on the rest of his Cy Young resume enough to move him back into the top five just yet.

5. Matt Harrison, Texas Rangers

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Last Week: Unranked (honorable mention)

You get the sense that most people haven't yet noticed what Matt Harrison has been doing recently.

If you are one of these people, you better start paying attention. You're missing some great pitching.

In his last 10 starts, Harrison has put together a 9-1 record while posting a 1.34 ERA. He's held opponents to a .230 batting average and a .300 slugging percentage while walking just 18 in 74 innings.

Thanks to this hot stretch, Harrison's record now sits at 12-4 and his ERA is down to 2.87. Per FanGraphs, he's tied for fifth in the AL among starting pitchers with a 2.8 WAR.

So why is Harrison in the No. 5 spot over David Price? He has the exact same record at 12-4, his ERA is lower at 2.80, his WHIP is lower and he has a lot more strikeouts, so what gives?

The Price vs. Harrison debate is a tough one. Their numbers are eerily similar with the exception of the two players' strikeout totals, where Price has a significant edge. He has an edge over Harrison in other areas as well (opponents' batting average, strikeout-to-walk ratio, etc.).

The kicker for me is the fact that Harrison has been significantly more dominant over his last 10 starts than Price has been in his last 10 starts. Harrison also has an edge in innings pitched, a stat that is utmost importance for starting pitchers.

Harrison also has an edge in WAR. Price's WAR checks in at just 2.3, putting him a little behind Harrison.

It's a close call, but Harrison gets the nod this week.

4. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

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Last Week: No. 5

Moving up a spot in this week's rankings is none other than Felix Hernandez, and why the heck not? His first start of the second half was a beauty.

If you missed it, King Felix fired a complete-game shutout against the Texas Rangers in which he allowed three hits and struck out 12.

Yes, these would be the same Rangers who lead baseball in virtually every offensive category. Hernandez treated them like they were a Triple-A team like the Durham Bulls or the San Diego Padres.

Hernandez picked up his seventh win of the season in that outing and lowered his ERA to 2.92.

Those numbers don't look all that great compared to Harrison and Price, but King Felix has them beat in plenty of other departments. He ranks fourth in the AL with a K/9 of 9.50 and first in the AL with 140 strikeouts. He ranks second in both innings pitched and FIP (fielding independent pitching), according to FanGraphs.

The scary part is that King Felix is only getting better as the season moves along. He has a 4-2 record in his last six starts, in which he's posted a 1.40 ERA while holding hitters to a .205 batting average. This stretch has seen him pitch two shutouts in which he's struck out a total of 25 hitters.

The guys at the top of my weekly rankings are on notice. King Felix is coming.

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3. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels

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Last Week: No. 3

Jered Weaver went into the break with a 10-1 record and a 1.96 ERA, and he was fresh off an eight-inning outing against the Baltimore Orioles in which he scatted three hits and gave up zero earned runs.

As I mentioned in the intro, Weaver was right there with Chris Sale and Justin Verlander at the top of my midseason AL Cy Young rankings. Secretly, I was hoping one of them would get off to a slow start in the second half just so there would be a little separation between the three of them.

Weaver obliged me.

In his first start of the second half, Weaver allowed five earned runs on 10 hits in seven innings against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Of the 10 hits he gave up, three left the ballpark.

Weaver did pick up his 11th win of the season, but his ERA jumped up to 2.26 and his WHIP jumped from 0.90 to 0.95.

According to FanGraphs, Weaver's FIP also jumped from 2.94 to 3.27, still a full run higher than his ERA.

The translation here is that Weaver has certainly been good this season, but he hasn't been quite as good as his 11-1 record and 2.26 ERA suggest.

One can only complain about Weaver so much, however. For all his shortcomings, he still ranks No. 3 in these rankings. He's in the middle of a special season.

2. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox

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Last Week: No. 2

Chris Sale entered the break with a 10-2 record and a 2.19 ERA and just under 100 strikeouts in 102.2 innings pitched.

In other words, he had a damn good first half. The question I had about him was whether he could keep it up seeing as how he had already set a new career-high in innings pitched.

So far, so good. Sale pitched eight innings of one-run ball in his first start after the break against the Kansas City Royals. He did allow 10 hits, but he did a fine job of keeping the damage to a minimum.

Sale picked up a win to up his record to 11-2, and he now has his ERA down to 2.11.

That ERA is no fluke. According to FanGraphs, Sale ranks No. 1 in the AL with a FIP of 2.54. That's what happens when you have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.08 and a BABIP of .264. Hitters just haven't been able to get comfortable against Sale this season.

Sale is still very much in the discussion for the top spot in the rankings and he could have reclaimed the top spot this week if things had gone his way.

But alas, Justin Verlander made sure things didn't go Sale's way.

1. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

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Last Week: No. 1

Chris Sale was good in his first post-break start, but Justin Verlander was better.

On Sunday against the Baltimore Orioles, Verlander pitched eight shutout innings, allowing three hits and walking two while striking out eight.

He picked up his 10th win and dropped his ERA to 2.43. He has his FIP down to 2.87, according to FanGraphs.

Sale has an advantage over Verlander in ERA and FIP, but Verlander has him beat in K/9, strikeout-to-walk ratio, innings pitched and WAR.

The innings pitched gap is a significant one. Verlander has pitched 140.2 innings this season. Sale has pitched 110.2 innings, 30 fewer than Verlander.

The edge in WAR is less significant, but Verlander still leads Sale 4.2 to 3.8.

Nobody leads Verlander in that category. He has the highest WAR not just of any American League pitcher, but of all major league pitchers.

Once again, he's the man to beat until further notice.