All-Star AL Cy Young Award Rankings: Can Anybody Top Justin Verlander?

Jun 5, 2018

When the All-Star break rolled around in 2011, there was little question that Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander was the man to beat in the American League Cy Young award race. Other studs, like CC Sabathia and Jered Weaver, were high in the running as well, but what Verlander was doing was ridiculous.

Verlander is once again in the middle of a great season in 2012, but he's by no means running away from the rest of the pack in the AL Cy Young race. Though he missed some time with a back injury, Weaver has a strong claim to the top spot in the Cy Young rankings. So does Chicago White Sox lefty Chris Sale, who has quietly emerged as one of the best young pitchers in baseball.

Here's hoping the race clears up a bit in the second half of the season, because picking a winner for the midseason AL Cy Young is about as hard as it gets.

Here are this week's rankings. The man in the top spot is your first-half award winner.

Note: All stats come from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Honorable Mentions

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Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers

Darvish's 3.59 ERA is nothing special and his 10-5 record only counts for so much, but his first half was largely a success. He pitched over 100 innings in his 16 starts, and he's compiled a strikeouts per nine innings of 10.26 to this point. That's second in the American League to Max Scherzer.

Matt Harrison, Texas Rangers

Harrison is in the middle of a remarkable run. Over his last six starts, he's given up just five earned runs over 43.1 innings—good for an ERA of 1.04. For the season, he has an 11-4 record and a highly respectable 3.10 ERA. It's going to be hard for him to maintain this pace through the Dog Days of August in Texas, but he's progressing very quickly towards a spot in the top five.

David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

Price was in my top five last week, but I didn't drop him down to honorable mention status because of anything he did. His 2.82 ERA is solid. He's pitched over 111 innings and he's racked up 11 wins on a Rays team that doesn't have a ton of offense to back him up. He's having a fine season.

CC Sabathia, New York Yankees

Sabathia is on the shelf with an injury and there's a line of thinking that he's been a weak link in the Bronx this year, but don't pay attention to any of that. What matters is that he's got the fifth-highest WAR in the AL among qualified starters, according to FanGraphs.

C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels

Wilson has been shaky his last couple of starts, but he still boasts a 2.43 ERA and a .202 batting average against. He's been the better of the Angels' two big offseason acquisitions thus far.

5. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

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Last Week: Unranked (honorable mention)

Felix Hernandez is putting together a season somewhat reminiscent of his Cy Young campaign in 2010. He doesn't have the wins, but he has everything else.

King Felix only has six wins on the season, but he'd probably have double that amount if he played on any other team. He's pitched about as well as any pitcher in the American League this season, but has once again been victimized by Seattle's lack of offensive firepower.

Hernandez's 3.13 ERA is only good enough for eighth in the AL, but that's slightly misleading. According to FanGraphs, Hernandez has a FIP of 2.96. This is a stat that measures what a pitcher's ERA should look like, and Hernandez's FIP is good for fourth among AL hurlers.

In addition, he has a strikeouts per nine innings of 9.32 that ranks third in the AL behind Scherzer and Darvish. He actually co-leads the Junior Circuit with a total of 128 strikeouts.

And, even though he had to miss a couple days with a bad back, he still ranks third in the AL with 123.2 innings pitched.

Add it all up, and you can see why King Felix ranks third in the AL with a WAR of 3.2. A lot of people haven't noticed, but he's doing his thing once again for a bad Seattle club.

4. Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox

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Last Week: No. 4

Jake Peavy finally snapped his winless skid in his last start, firing 7.1 innings of one-run ball against the Toronto Blue Jays in a game the White Sox won 4-2. He had lost four starts in a row before that.

Not that those four starts were bad outings, of course. On the contrary, those four outings saw Peavy pitch 30 innings and allow just nine earned runs. That's an ERA of 2.70.

For the season, Peavy boasts a 2.85 ERA that ranks sixth among AL starters. His 0.99 WHIP ranks fourth. He also ranks in the top 10 in innings pitched and strikeouts.

FanGraphs has Peavy's FIP calculated at 3.34, which is slightly above his ERA. That's typically a sign that a pitcher has benefited from good luck, but there's not much of a disparity where Peavy is concerned. He's earned his good numbers.

Besides, it's pretty hard to say that Peavy has benefited from good luck this season while keeping a straight face. He only has seven wins, but he'd have more than 10 if the White Sox had actually given him some run support in a few of his starts. If anything, he's been a tough-luck pitcher this season.

At least he has his health. In his case, there's no overstating how important that is.

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3. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels

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Last Week: No. 3

Fair warning: this is where things start to get interesting.

Jered Weaver has sparkling numbers across the board. His record stands at 10-1, giving him the best winning percentage of any pitcher in the AL. He ranks first in the league in ERA at 1.96. He also ranks first in the league in WHIP at 0.90.

And yes, the no-hitter he threw back in May counts for something.

So why, exactly, is he all the way down at No. 3 on this list?

A couple reasons. First and foremost, Weaver's FIP is one that does suggest there's been some good luck going on in his starts. His ERA may be 1.96, but FanGraphs has his FIP at 2.94—nearly a full run higher.

That's still very good, mind you, but that's a sign that Weaver has benefited from good fortune when opponents have made contact against him.

And that's happening more than usual against Weaver this season. He's only striking out 6.80 hitters every nine innings, as opposed to 9.35 in 2010 and 7.56 in 2011. He deserves credit for trusting his defense—which is quite good—but he's been slightly less dominant than he has been in recent years.

Plus, the few weeks he missed while he was on the disabled list are an issue in this discussion. Workload is something that should count for a lot where the Cy Young is concerned, and that's one area where Weaver doesn't measure up.

He's been great, but he hasn't been the best.

2. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox

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Last Week: No. 1

Like Weaver, Chris Sale has an argument to be No. 1 in these rankings. And, indeed, he was No. 1 in these rankings as recently as last week.

All Sale has done this season is win 10 of his 15 starts while putting together a 2.19 ERA (second in the AL) and a 0.95 WHIP (third). Opponents are hitting under .200 against him, and he's shown remarkable control for such a young pitcher.

It's perfectly okay to be alarmed about Sale's arm—given the fact that he's already thrown a career-high 102.2 innings pitched this season—but he's actually gotten better as the season has gone along. In his last nine starts, Sale has an ERA of 1.67.

There's also nothing to complain about where Sale's FIP is concerned. Per FanGraphs, his FIP is 2.58, which tops the American League.

So why is Sale not No. 1?

I'll explain that in the next slide, but I can tease my reasoning by saying this: he lacks an impressive workload and he hasn't been that much more dominant than the guy in the No. 1 spot.

1. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

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Last Week: No. 2

Yup. The man to beat in the AL Cy Young race is Justin Verlander. Again.

What gives Verlander a big edge over the competition is his workload. He's pitched 132.2 innings this season, most in the American League and exactly 30 more than Sale. He's gone at least six innings in all 18 of his starts, logging at least seven innings in 11 of them. He's pitched five complete games.

Sale, by comparison, has pitched one complete game. Weaver has pitched two.

Verlander's ERA stands at 2.58, which isn't that far removed from Sale's 2.19 ERA. They both boast WHIPs of 0.95.

Sale may lead all AL hurlers in FIP at 2.58, but Verlander's FIP of 2.94 ties him with Weaver for second in the American League, according to FanGraphs. Unlike the two of them, he hasn't had an above-average defense around to back him up. On the contrary, Detroit's defense has been awful this season.

Because of that, Verlander has had to walk a finer line this season. His 4.27 strikeout-to-walk ratio, second in the AL behind Colby Lewis, is just one of the things that says he's done that as well as anybody could have possibly asked.

The big number, however, is Verlander's 3.8 WAR. That doesn't just top AL pitchers. That's tops among all major league starters.

It's an extremely tough call between Weaver, Sale and Verlander for the No. 1 spot on this list. The numbers give Verlander the slightest of edges, but don't look at this as an upset.

We are, after all, talking about the best pitcher in baseball.