I think this one will happen, but if it doesn't, the Colts are doomed.
Andrew Luck is overflowing with star potential, and if he plays like he did in college, he will be the next great quarterback to don a Colts jersey. However, that other star quarterback went 3-13 in his rookie year.
Colts fans probably are not expecting a playoff berth this year, but if Luck develops faster than Peyton Manning did, it's certainly possible. As long as Luck's receivers show off their talent early on and make an immediate impact, the Colts will contend for a playoff spot.
I have described Luck a lot, but I'll just give you another description of how he plays. He is very accurate and isn't afraid to stand in the pocket and take a hit. If he has to scramble, he can, and he can deliver a great throw on the run or run the ball very well.
Luck definitely can and will be a star at the next level, but the big question is when he will become a star. Indianapolis plays Chicago, Jacksonville, Minnesota and Green Bay to start the season, and all of those teams except for Jacksonville had terrible pass defenses in 2012.
Playing weaker teams (on defense) will help Luck settle in, and if he does get the hang of the NFL early on, NFL defenses will hate playing the Colts for a long time.
Oh, and the Colts will be making the playoffs in 2012-13 and for years to come. That is, if Luck takes the first step to becoming elite in the coming season.