2012 Philadelphia Phillies: Predicting the Pitching Stats

The Phillies quite possibly will live and die with their pitching staff in 2012.  It carried them quite a bit through the 2011 season.  Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are a year older but aren't showing any signs of slowing down.  Cole Hamels should be in his prime. We'll see if Vance Worley can follow up his stellar rookie campaign.  Will Joe Blanton be able to rebound from an injury-riddled 2011?  Are there any surprises or disappointments in the bullpen?  Well, let's see.

ROY HALLADAY

Last three seasons:

2009  17-10, 2.79

2010  21-10, 2.44

2011  19-6, 2.35

2012 Predictions:

Halladay is a machine and has started at least 31 games in each of the last six seasons.  While he will pitch the majority of this season at age 35, he won't slow down much.  He might miss a couple of wins due to run support, but another Cy Young award might be in his magical right arm.

18 Wins

9 Losses

2.83 ERA

CLIFF LEE

Last three seasons:

2009  14-13, 3.22

2010  12-9, 3.18

2011  17-8, 2.40 

2012 Predictions:

Lee will turn 34 in August.  His return to Philly did not disappoint, until the postseason.  Cliff has a ton of pride, and I am sure he wishes to put that Game 2 NLDS start behind him and get back to the playoffs this season to redeem himself.

15 Wins

7 Losses

3.24 ERA

COLE HAMELS

Last three seasons:

2009  10-11, 4.32

2010  12-11, 3.06

2011  14-9, 2.79 

2012 Predictions:

For whatever reason, the Phillies seem to struggle scoring runs for Cole.  He easily could have been a 20-game winner in each of the previous two seasons.  2009 was the only blip on the radar, and that was more than likely the product of a ton of postseason work in 2008.  In 2012, it's payback time for Hamels....who, one way or another, will be a super-rich man.

21 Wins

6 Losses

2.33 ERA

VANCE WORLEY

Last three seasons:

2009  7-12, 5.34 (AA)

2010  10-7, 3.36 (AA-AAA)

2011  11-3, 3.01 

2012 Predictions:

"Vanimal" burst onto the scene last year with a sparkling ERA and thrust himself into the Rookie of the Year conversation.  However, his Minor League numbers didn't lead most to think he would have that kind of success at the big-league level.  I do not think Worley will replicate his 2011 season, but I also don't think he will plummet too far.

13 Wins

11 Losses

3.75 ERA

JOE BLANTON

Last three seasons:

2009  12-8, 4.05

2010  9-6, 4.82

2011  1-2, 5.01 

2012 Predictions:

Blanton's 2011 was a waste.  He spent the majority of the season on the shelf and plenty of time this offseason in the rumor mill.  Low and behold, Blanton is still here and a helluva No. 5 man in any rotation.  Joe won't tally any Cy Young votes or even threaten an All Star roster.  But if healthy, Joe can be an innings eater.

10 Wins

10 Losses

4.42 ERA

KYLE KENDRICK

Last three seasons:

2009  3-1, 3.42

2010  11-10, 4.73

2011  8-6, 3.22 

2012 Predictions:

Kendrick is Mr. Pitch to Contact.  He'll give up plenty of hits and strike out few.  His 2011 season was quite successful though, as an occasional starter and long man out of the pen.  Unless there is a trade or an injury he'll more than likely fill that same role in 2012, and should put up similar numbers.

6 Wins

4 Losses

3.93 ERA

CHAD QUALLS

Last three seasons:

2009  2-2, 24 saves, 3.63

2010  3-4, 12 saves, 7.32

2011  6-8, 0 saves, 3.51 

2012 Predictions:

I fear this transaction being an absolute bust.  It seems there are times where the Phillies have acquired journeymen relievers that turn into disasters.  See: Danys Baez, Ryan Franklin, Todd Jones, Arthur Rhodes, Terry Adams, etc.  Add Qualls to the list....

2 Wins

6 Losses

5.61 ERA

MICHAEL STUTES

Last three seasons:

2009- 8-8, 4.26 (AA)

2010  7-1, 3.42 (AA-AAA)

2011  6-2, 3.63 

2012 Predictions:

Stutes was a bright spot and pleasant surprise out of the Phillies' pen in 2011.  Unfortunately, the dreaded "sore shoulder" has already popped up this spring and his health to start the season is in serious question.  Even without the shoulder soreness, Stutes would more than likely coming back to earth some.

3 Wins

4 Losses

4.22 ERA

ANTONIO BASTARDO

Last three seasons:

2009  2-3, 6.46

2010  2-0, 4.34

2011  6-1, 2.64 

2012 Predictions:

Arguably, Bastardo could have been a member of the NL All Star team last season.  His numbers were that good at the break.  Even though he showed signs of tiring down the stretch, he still finished with a ridiculous .144 opponents batting average.  Bastardo has "it" and will continue to grow, as he is only 26 years old.

5 Wins

2 Losses

2.22 ERA

JOSE CONTRERAS

Last three seasons:

2009  6-13, 4.92

2010  6-4, 3.34

2011  0-0, 3.86 

2012 Predictions:

Contreras started 2011 as the Phillies closer and did a good job in a very brief time.  That proved to be a lot of wear on his 39 (so he says) -year-old arm.  Charlie Manuel will have to take it easy on him, as he is 40 (so he says) now.  If he's healthy, Contreras has enough to be effective in middle relief.

4 Wins

4 Losses

3.21 ERA

JONATHAN PAPELBON

Last three seasons:

2009  1-1, 1.85  38 saves

2010  5-7, 3.90  37 saves

2011  4-1, 2.94  31 saves 

2012 Predictions:

Papelbon's tenure ended disastrously in Boston, and a fresh start is probably what the doctor ordered.  Like Philly, Boston isn't an easy place to play, so the spotlight won't bother him.  Look for his first season in the National League to be a very successful one, making Ruben Amaro Jr out to be smart....for at least one year.

3 Wins

1 Losses

42 saves

2.58 ERA

AND THE REST......

For those who added up the slides, you see that it equals a 96-59.  The remainder of the staff will consist of guys like David Herndon, Justin De Fratus, Michael Schwimer, Phillippe Aumont, Joe Savery and a few more.  That leaves a 2-5 record for that bunch and an overall record of 98-64.  Now, here's to a better postseason.