4 Keys for New York Giants Against Washington, Plus Week 15 ATS Picks

The New York Giants stopped their four-game losing streak when they came back from 12 points down with less than six minutes to play to beat the Dallas Cowboys Sunday night, 37-34.

With the win, the Giants have control of their own destiny and won’t leave New Jersey again in the regular season. Big Blue hosts Washington this week before a “road” game at MetLife Stadium against the Jets on Christmas Eve and the season-finale against the Cowboys on New Year’s Day.

New York can clinch the division with a win against the Redskins or Jets combined with a victory over Dallas in the finale.

The Giants will still be dealing with a rash of injuries when the Redskins come calling on Sunday. Washington won the teams’ first meeting this year, 28-14 on opening day.

Justin Tuck didn’t have a tackle in the win at Dallas and may miss this week’s game with a toe injury, and he’s not the only defensive end who’s hurting. Osi Umenyiora could miss his third straight game with a sprained ankle. Neither Tuck nor Umenyiora played in the first Washington game.

Safety Kenny Phillips didn’t play against the Cowboys because of a sprained left knee.

Rex Grossman threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting. He was sacked four times, twice by Jason Pierre-Paul, who had a huge game at Dallas last week.

Pierre-Paul had two sacks last week, running his season total to 12.5 and also blocked Dan Bailey’s potential game-tying field goal with seconds remaining in regulation.

Eli Manning didn’t throw a touchdown pass in the first meeting with the Redskins—one of just two times this season he has failed to do so—but had his third 400-yard game of the season in Dallas and is fourth in the league with a career-high 4,105 passing yards. His 25 touchdown passes are sixth in the league.

The matchup also pairs the league’s two worst rushing attacks. New York is last in the league at 85.8 yards a game on the ground, but Brandon Jacobs ran for a season-high 101 yards on 19 carries and scored two touchdowns last week.

Washington is 31st in rushing, averaging 93.8 yards a game. But rookie Roy Helu comes in with three straight 100-yard games, including a season-high 126 last week in a loss to New England.

There are four things the Giants have to do in order to get the win against Washington, and I’ll follow that up with this week’s picks against the spread.

Keep the Offense Balanced

The Giants rolled up 510 yards on offense against the Cowboys, and the run was a key component in that total.

York ran for 110 yards on 31 carries, just 3.5 yards an attempt but didn’t get away from the run, which keeps play-action viable and slows down the opposing pass rush.

New York’s offense is always at its best when there's a mix of run and pass plays on the early downs. The running game has been inconsistent this year, but Washington has been just as inconsistent defending the run.

If the Giants can establish Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw early in the game, it will open up play-action passing chances for Manning later on.

Keep Eli off the Turf

Washington has 34 sacks this season and has been a very aggressive defense.

Manning’s protection has been solid this year, but he has a tendency to force the ball when he’s under pressure in the pocket.

The Giants have to be aware of the Redskins’ blitz packages and be ready to use more slide and max protection schemes to counter the pass rush.

Say Hello to Helu

The Redskin passing game has been wildly inconsistent, and their running game has not produced big numbers at times.

But Helu comes in with the streak of three straight 100-yard games, and the Giants have been vulnerable to the running game.

New York could show more eight-man fronts and tighter alignments in an effort to force Grossman to put the ball in the air.

Press the Edge

Washington’s offensive line is without tackle Trent Williams and has been lit up for 35 sacks this season.

That plays into the hands of a Giant pass rush that's excellent at getting pressure and should unleash the whole bag of line stunts and twists to take advantage of the Redskins’ weakness up front.

Perry Fewell may also want to get creative with zone blitzes from the edge as well—a scheme that can baffle inexperienced pass protectors.

The Picks

Home teams are in CAPS.

Jaguars (+12) over FALCONS (Thursday night): Atlanta beats teams, but not by a bunch of points.

Cowboys (-7) over BUCCANEERS (Saturday night): Tampa Bay wanted to fire Raheem Morris Monday. He’s still there. That can’t bode well.

BILLS (+2) over Dolphins: Buffalo gets its first win since what feels like 10 years ago, but it was only October.

Seahawks (+4) over BEARS: Getting points against Caleb Hanie sounds like a really good deal.

Titans (-7) over COLTS: Indy hasn’t had a lead in eight games. So, yeah, I’ll lay the seven.

CHIEFS (+15) over Packers: Todd Haley’s gone. That’s got to be worth at least six points.

Bengals (-7) over RAMS: Make no mistake—Cincinnati takes care of the bad teams.

Saints (-7) over VIKINGS: As long as the Collapsidome has a roof, I love the Saints here. 

GIANTS (-7) over Redskins: Jason Pierre-Paul against a rookie undrafted free agent sounds like a long day for Rex Grossman.

TEXANS (-7) over Panthers: Wasn’t there a team last year that just kept winning regardless of injuries? Oh, yeah—they won a Super Bowl.

Lions (-2) over RAIDERS: Oakland is fading faster than David Stern’s approval rating from the Lakers.

Patriots (-7) over BRONCOS: I’ve enjoyed riding the Tebow wave  but not against  ngry Tom Brady.

EAGLES (-3) over Jets: Probably too little, too late to save their season, but Philly looked very solid at Miami last week.

CARDINALS (-7) over Browns: Cleveland 2.0 still feels like an expansion team 12 years later.

Ravens (-3) over CHARGERS: You’re not beating the Ravens with offensive linemen you picked up off the street on Wednesday.

49ERS (-3) over Steelers: That defense against Gimpy Ben could be scary for the Steelers.

Last week: 11-5
Season: 115-81-10