NBA Playoffs 2012: Predicting the Playoff Field
The NBA season is less than three weeks away, and while free agency and trades will most likely change the entire NBA landscape in the next couple of weeks, it's never too early to predict what teams will make the playoffs and what teams will have their names thrown into the draft lottery.
Will the Heat capture the top seed in the East or will a team like the Bulls, Celtics or even Knicks claim it?
Will the Clippers make the playoffs?
Will the Lakers and Spurs continue to dominate the West, or will young squads like the Thunder and Grizzlies take their place atop the conference?
It's never to early to make a slightly educated guess.
No. 1 Seed Eastern Conference
1 of 17Miami Heat
Last Year's Seeding: 2
Playoff Result: Lost in NBA Finals
With another year of meshing under their belt and (hopefully) a new point guard and center, the Miami Heat should be able to avoid the slumps throughout the season and assert themselves as the top team in the Eastern Conference.
Unless the Knicks or Lakers make a move for Chris Paul or Dwight Howard and create a big three of their own, no team in the league is built for more for regular-season dominance than the Heat. LeBron James is the best player in the NBA, and Dwyane Wade very well may be the second best.
Chris Bosh is no slouch and is probably the best No. 3 guy in the league.
Watch out for rookie PG Norris Cole. He may be the starting-caliber PG the Heat thought Mario Chalmers could be a few years ago.
As far as playoff performance, at this point I don't feel safe making any predictions about LeBron James and company.
No. 2 Seed Eastern Conference
2 of 17Chicago Bulls
Last Year's Seeding: 1
Playoff Result: Lost in Eastern Finals
It will be tough for the Bulls to repeat as regular-season champs in the East, but don't expect reigning-MVP Derrick Rose to let this team fall too far. While I don't think Rose deserved the award last year—I'm a Dwight Howard supporter—he still had an incredible year and will only continue to improve as he works on his defense and passing and gets better players around him.
The Bulls are one of the names being thrown around in the Dwight Howard talks, and while it would be awesome to see Rose and Howard play together, the Bulls would be in better shape if they kept Luol Deng and Joakim Noah and added a SG via free agency. Jason Richardson and Caron Butler come to mind.
The Bulls are a great defensive team, and even if they bring back the same roster from last year, I can't see them falling below the third seed in the conference. How they tweak their rotation and develop Rose will determine how far they go in the postseason.
No. 3 Seed Eastern Conference
3 of 17Boston Celtics
Last Year's Seeding: 3
Playoff Result: Lost in Eastern Semi's
The Celtics are too old. The Celtics are too slow. The Celtics get injured too much.
It seems that whenever we talk about Boston, the word "too" and something negative are brought up. But what people forget is that with Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, the Celtics still have the best "big four" in the league.
If Jermaine O'Neal isn't healthy, they will need to add a center. They also need to figure out what to do with talented but underachieving bench players such as Jeff Green and Glen Davis. If there's one GM in the league who knows how to make little roster tweaks to help his team, it's Danny Ainge. Rookie JaJuan Johnson could play a big role off the bench down low for this team.
This team is too talented to fall out of the top four in the East. While back-to-back games may hurt them at times, come playoff time the Celtics will benefit more than anybody from a shortened season.
No. 4 Seed Eastern Conference
4 of 17New York Knicks
Last Year's Seeding: 6
Playoff Result: Lost in First Round
Despite an awful postseason showing last year, the Knicks still have a good core in place, and giving Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire more time together should result in home court advantage in the first round.
Chris Paul to NY seems to be a hot rumor right now, and if that were to happen I don't think it would change the Knicks' seeding too much in his first year in town.
If the Knicks acquired Paul, they would have a dominant offensive big three but even less defense and depth than they did last year.
For the first time in what seems like forever, the Knicks appear to be heading in the right direction. At least now the players receiving huge sums of money are actually elite players and not the likes of Jamal Crawford and Eddy Curry.
I also like the first-round selection of Iman Shumpert out of Georgia Tech. He may have been the best perimeter defender in the draft, and while he's not flashy and will take some grooming, I think he will help this team immensely.
Chris Paul or no Chris Paul, the Knicks will be a good but not great team this season.
No. 5 Seed Eastern Conference
5 of 17Last year's Seeding: 5
Playoff Result: Lost in Eastern Semi's
The Hawks pleasantly surprised their fans by beating the Magic in the first round last year. There will be a lot of questions facing this team, but they should have enough assets to maintain a solid playoff seed no matter what happens in the next few weeks.
Jamal Crawford is one of the most explosive bench players in the league. He is currently a free agent and one of the most coveted guys available. It's important that the Hawks bring him back or replace him with another potent wing scorer because Joe Johnson goes cold at times and Marvin Williams isn't much of a scorer.
Josh Smith is one of the names being thrown around in trade talks. He's the Hawks best player and does a ton for this team on both ends of the floor. If they move him—which I think ultimately they won't—they need to be sure to get a lot in return.
A healthy Kirk Hinrich wouldn't hurt either.
No. 6 Seed Eastern Conference
6 of 17Last Year's Seeding: 8
Playoff Result: Lost in First Round
The Pacers gave the Bulls a good fight in the playoffs last year and appear to have rallied around coach Frank Vogel.
They actually have some decent young pieces in Darren Collison, Paul George, George Hill and Tyler Hansbrough.
Danny Granger seems to alternate between overrated and underrated every year, but he is a very good player. The biggest issue for this team is the front court. Depth is an issue there, and Hansbrough is probably best suited for a reserve role.
There's a lot of solid power forwards and centers in free agency this year, and the Pacers have plenty of cap room to go after the best of them. If they can acquire one—which they should—this team will be built to secure a surprisingly high playoff seed in the weak Eastern Conference.
No. 7 Seed Eastern Conference
7 of 17Orlando Magic
Last Year's Seeding: 4
Playoff Result: Lost in First Round
What will determine Orlando's season—and their foreseeable future—is what they get for Dwight Howard and if they are able to dump a couple of their huge contracts.
They have a lot of assets, and if they can manage to move Dwight Howard and one of their big contracts for a package including Pau Gasol from L.A. or Luol Deng and Joakim Noah from Chicago, they shouldn't fall too far.
The Magic have cursed themselves in recent years by making too many moves for big-name players, but if they start the rebuilding process the right way they can save themselves.
They won't be very good this year, as they relied too much on Howard not to take a hit. But they have enough talent to stay in the playoffs in the East even after they move the big man.
No. 8 Seed Eastern Conference
8 of 17Last Year's Seeding: Missed Playoffs
Playoff Result: None
The Bucks barely missed the playoffs last year, and with other teams changing drastically, they will sneak in this year.
Andrew Bogut is one of the game's best centers, and point guard Brandon Jennings is streaky but has all the talent in the world and carried this team to the playoffs two years ago as a rookie.
The Bucks are great on defense but were the worst offensive team in the NBA last season. A better year out of Brandon Jennings should bump them up a few spots but isn't enough firepower for this team to make much noise in the playoffs.
No. 1 Seed Western Conference
9 of 17Los Angeles Lakers
Last Year's Seeding: 2
Playoff Result: Lost in Western Semi's
The Lakers were embarrassed by the Mavs last year, and I expect Kobe Bryant and his boys to come back with a vengeance.
There's a lot of talk about the Lakers acquiring Chris Paul, Dwight Howard or both. They would have to move a lot of talented players to do so—Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum would be gone—but a Paul-Kobe-Howard core would be by far the best in the NBA.
Even if the Lakers stand pat with their team from last year, I still expect them to run through the regular season. They are one of the most talented teams in the NBA, and a healthy Kobe, motivated Pau and more mature Bynum should lead to a lot of success.
We can all agree that the Lakers are one of the true elite teams in the league and will be a championship contender once again.
No. 2 Seed Western Conference
10 of 17Last Year's Seeding: 4
Playoff Result: Lost in Western Finals
Chemistry issues between Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant—combined with a healthy dose of Dirk Nowitzki—prevented this young squad from reaching the Finals last year. But this team is stacked with young talent all over and will only get better as they play with each other more.
Westbrook will continue to develop as a true point guard, and Kevin Durant is guaranteed to be a top-three scorer in the league. I expect James Harden to crack the starting lineup this year. He's just too versatile and talented to be playing behind Thabo Sefolosha.
Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins form a dominant defensive frontcourt and both continue to improve on the offensive end. A bunch of solid role players round out the rotation for the Thunder, and in only their third year in their new city, this franchise has a legitimate chance at taking home a title.
No. 3 Seed Western Conference
11 of 17Last Year's Seeding: 3
Playoff Result: Won NBA Finals
The defending champs—while old—will still be one of the most talented and complete teams in the league and should have a decent shot at defending their crown.
I expect that after testing the market Tyson Chandler will come back to Dallas. It's really the perfect role for him. He's a key player on a championship team but isn't in a position with too much pressure and won't be blamed if they falter.
The boys will all be back, led by Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry. Caron Butler will probably sign with another team, but considering he was hurt during the playoffs and this team still won it all, that shouldn't be too traumatic of a loss.
I expect them to overpay to bring back J.J. Barea.
If this team stays healthy, they'll be right in the hunt with the Lakers, Thunder and other contenders out West.
No. 4 Seed Western Conference
12 of 17Last Year's Seeding: 6
Playoff Result: Lost in First Round
Once again Portland's biggest obstacle will be injuries as they hope Brandon Roy, Greg Oden and Nicolas Batum can stay healthy for at least 75 percent of the season.
PG Raymond Felton is in town now and should vastly improve the flow of this offense. He's always been underrated and was unfortunate to be one of the pieces the Knicks gave up to acquire Carmelo Anthony. But a draft-day trade moved him to Portland where he should find long-term success.
Gerald Wallace is a hustle machine, and LaMarcus Aldridge has emerged as one of the league's best big guys.
Health permitting—which isn't really fair to say—this team has the talent and depth not only to make the playoffs but to win a series there.
No. 5 Seed Western Conference
13 of 17San Antonio Spurs
Last Year's Seeding: 1
Playoff Results: Lost in First Round
The Spurs, like the Celtics, should benefit from the short season come playoff time.
San Antonio is a team on the decline when you take into account Manu Ginobili's health issues and Tim Duncan's age. But there is too much talent and championship experience for this team to fall too far. Duncan is not the player he once was, but he can still do it all down low and hold down the paint by himself against anybody not named Dwight Howard.
Tony Parker is the future of the team at this point, and it's time they start thinking about which direction they want to go post-Duncan. It should be the legend's last year with the team and probably in the league.
No. 6 Seed Western Conference
14 of 17Memphis Grizzlies
Last Year's Seeding: 8
Playoff Result: Lost in Western Semi's
The Grizzlies need to do everything in their power to bring back free agent center Marc Gasol. He's one of the best all-around centers in the league and was perhaps the most important player on the team during their surprising postseason run last year.
Gasol or no Gasol, this team is a deep, talented bunch. Mike Conley is playing the best ball of his career. O.J. Mayo is a solid starter. Tony Allen adds elite perimeter defense. And Zach Randolph has finally developed into one of the league's best players. Add a now-healthy Rudy Gay into the mix, and you have a good group in Memphis.
It's important not to over-hype this team because of their run last year, though. They are by no means elite and could be in danger of falling out of the playoffs if Gasol does not come back. The West is competitive and while Memphis is talented, don't forget that all of the talented players on their team have had very inconsistent careers.
No. 7 Seed Western Conference
15 of 17Last Year's Seeding: 5
Playoff Result: Lost in First Round
Denver will be without Raymond Felton and most likely Arron Afflalo, but they should have enough to get back to the playoffs. They struck gold by getting Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari from the Knicks last year.
Add that to a decent group of big guys with exciting but unproven PG Ty Lawson, and the Nuggets have a chance to be a very good, balanced team. Rookie swingman Jordan Hamilton and rebound machine Kenneth Faried should contribute right away.
I don't expect Denver to make any big moves. They seem to be contempt with what they have in a post-Carmelo world. And what they have should be enough to sneak into the postseason yet again.
No. 8 Seed Western Conference
16 of 17Los Angeles Clippers
Last Year's Seeding: Missed Playoffs
Playoff Result: None
All the hot talk is about the Clippers having loads of potential. They're not a contender yet, but I expect them to improve just enough to make the playoffs.
Blake Griffin—in case you haven't heard—is a bona fide beast. He could very well emerge as one of the 10 best players in the league this year. Eric Gordon is probably the best SG not named Kobe Bryant or Dwyane Wade, and both Eric Bledsoe and Al-Farouq Aminu show great potential.
Veterans like Mo Williams and Chris Kaman bring some experience to the table. Rookie Trey Thompkins should excite some people with his athleticism.
There's some talk about Chris Paul coming to town, but that would require them to give up Eric Gordon and perhaps Aminu.
Paul Griffin or Gordon Griffin should be good enough of a duo for the Clippers to sneak in and have an all-Los Angeles first-round series.
Complaints? Questions?
17 of 17Any problems with my picks?
Feel free to let me know.
Follow me on Twitter @ZakKondratenko
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