NFL Picks Week 12: Stone-Cold Locks and Shocking Upsets To Bank On

There are run-away favorites who are going to suffer a devastating blow this week at the hands of scrappy underdogs and games that aren't nearly as close as they seem.

Week 12 of the NFL season puts forth some of the most enticing matchups we've seen all season. It all kicks off Thanksgiving, the undefeated Packers look to protect their unblemished record against the feisty Lions and the Harbaugh brothers square off in the first matchup between sibling head coaches in NFL history.

With playoff implications rampant, this is a huge week for teams looking to make a late push for the postseason and the battle for home-field advantage is just as heated as ever.

Here are a few stone-cold locks this week, as well as upsets waiting to happen.

Lock: Packers over Lions

Why the Packers are a lock:

The Packers have won by over a 6.5-point margin nine times this season. Aaron Rodgers puts forth a passing offense that generates just shy of 305 YPG and with a turnover differential of +12, it's easy to see why the Packers have been so dominant.

Detroit looked a lot scarier at the beginning of the season than they do now. They've lost three of their last five games and the up and down Lions can't hope to compete in this one.

Upset: 49ers over Ravens

Why the 49ers will pull off the upset:

The 49ers are 9-1, undefeated on the road and have a serious shot at pushing the Packers for home-field advantage. The Ravens look like the best team in the AFC at times, but their puzzling losses against the Jaguars and Seahawks make them one of the biggest enigmas in the league.

Ray Rice encounters the No. 1 run defense in the NFL and Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman will ensure that he doesn't become the first back to rush for a touchdown against the stingy Niners. Jim Harbaugh's squad is a better version of the Ravens and Ray Lewis' status remains up in the air.

Lock: Steelers over Chiefs

Why the Steelers are a lock:

Pittsburgh is the team to beat in the AFC and the Chiefs have never looked worse. It seemed as though the Chiefs had shaken off their losing ways when they won four in a row, but this streaky team has dropped three straight and to make matters worse, they're coming off a short week.

They got spanked by the Patriots on Monday Night 34-3. Only hanging three points on the worst defense in the NFL speaks to just how dire Kansas City's situation is. They're now up against the vaunted Steelers defense and Tyler Palko is in for a long day.

Upset: Colts over Panthers

Why the Colts will pull off the upset:

It's tough to go winless and the Colts have a real shot at taking down a manageable opponent this week. They're dejected, but this notion that they're tanking for the first overall pick is absurd. Jobs are on the line and this is the point where Jim Irsay will find out who deserves the right to stay and who needs to go.

The Colts are coming off a bye, they're at home and the Panthers have dropped five of their last six games. This could be the Colts' last real shot at winning a game this season and they want to avoid being in the "worst team ever" discussion.

Lock: Saints over Giants

Why the Saints are a lock:

The Saints suffered an embarrassing loss to the then winless Rams in Week 8, but came back swinging and took down division foes Tampa Bay and Atlanta. That loss was an aberration, unlike the Giants' back-to-back losses that will turn into three straight defeats after Monday Night's matchup is over.

The Giants' loss to the 49ers was understandable, but to be taken down by the Eagles is cause for concern. Eli Manning has to go on the road against Drew Brees with the banged-up Giants struggling. Odd things happen on Monday Night, but don't expect an upset to surface here.

Upset: Broncos over Chargers

Why the Broncos will pull off upset:

The AFC West is in shambles. Every time it seems like a team is going to grab hold of the division, they botch what seems to be a sure win. Tim Tebow has the Broncos rolling and Denver has won four of their last five.

The Chargers are on a five-game losing streak and with their run defense allowing just under 125 rushing YPG, they have no chance at slowing down the Tebow train this week.

Lock: Falcons over Vikings

Why the Falcons are a lock:

No opponent is a lock when taking on the Vikings in Minnesota, but the two-win Vikings are worthless on the road. With Adrian Peterson banged up and the Falcons finally falling back into their grove, Minnesota has no shot of going into Atlanta and pulling off the upset.

The Falcons have won four of their last five and are making a serious run at the NFC South crown. No way are they letting the Vikings get in the way of winning a division championship.

Upset: Dolphins over Cowboys

Why the Dolphins will pull off the upset:

The Dolphins have caught fire and have won three straight games after losing their first seven. Any win is a good win for Miami, but the Chiefs, Redskins and fading Bills don't hold a candle to the Bills' next opponent, right?

While that may be true, the Cowboys' win over the 49ers in Week 2 stands as their lone signature win. They haven't won on the road in regulation and their road woes will continue against the red-hot Dolphins.