New England Patriots: Predicting the Remaining Regular Season Games

The New England Patriots come out of their bye week with the best record in the AFC.

Last season, an explosive offense and a "bend-but-don't-break" defense carried the Patriots to the postseason with a 14-2 record, before bouncing out to the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium.

After a 5-1 start this year, the early signs show that not much has changed.

By now, you will have undoubtedly heard about Tom Brady and Wes Welker's record yardage pace, and teams have yet to find a way to tame the two-headed monster—Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez—at tight end.

The 32nd-ranked defense, on the other hand? Still as bendy as ever and not likely to tighten up any time soon. The release of Leigh Bodden at cornerback surely doesn't help the cause.

So, where do the Patriots go from here? Let's look at each matchup in turn and predict their regular season record.

Week 8: At Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: Win (Patriots improve to 6-1)

The Steelers will be fired up for this one. After a week of hearing that Tom Brady "owns" them, expect Ben Roethlisberger and company to bring their A-games to Heinz Field.

But we can't ignore history. Tom Brady last lost in Pittsburgh in 2004, and in his last three meetings with a Dick LeBeau defense, he has thrown for at least 350 yards each time.

In last season's 39-26 victory, Rob Gronkowski ended with three touchdowns, and how the Steelers cope with him and Aaron Hernandez will largely decide the outcome this Sunday.

The Steelers' passing offense is in working order this year, and the Roethlisberger to Mike Williams connection will give Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington sleepless nights this week. 

Big Ben will have to stay aerial, because New England is stout on run defense through Vince Wilfork. Rashard Mendenhall is far from his best and may struggle to give the offense much balance.

I just don't see the Steelers having enough ammunition to cope with Brady in a shootout, even with a noisy crowd behind them baying for Patriot blood.

Finally, a fun fact to digest: The Patriots last lost a game following the bye in 2002 and are 9-2 overall in the Belichick era.

Convinced yet?

New England wins in a high-scoring thriller.

Week 9: Vs. New York Giants

Prediction: Win (7-1)

The Giants are a Jekyll and Hyde 4-2 team, with unexpected defeats to the Redskins and Seahawks on their resume.

Elsewhere, their schedule has been reasonably soft, with a win over divisional rivals Philadelphia Eagles the most impressive of the bunch.

The Giants have suffered numerous injuries to key defensive starters like Justin Tuck, Terrell Thomas, Osi Umenyiora and Jonathan Goff, but few teams have been able to take advantage.

Tom Brady is by far the most accomplished quarterback the Giants will have faced this season. Jason Pierre-Paul may be key in providing the rush to disrupt Brady's game, but with the balance in Bill O'Brien's play-calling of late, calling on BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Stevan Ridley to carry the load against the 27th-ranked run defense may reap dividends.

Both teams have too many defensive frailties to keep the score down, but I predict the Patriots will jump out to an early lead and stay there.

Week 10: At New York Jets

Prediction: Loss (7-2)

We all know the history here. As poorly as the 4-3 Jets have played at times this season, does anyone really expect anything other than a tough battle in East Rutherford?

The Ryan brothers seem to have Tom Brady all worked out. Rob Ryan's game plan for the Cowboys in Week 6 limited him for 57 minutes, until his final-drive heroics. If it felt like a carbon copy of Rex Ryan's brainchild from the AFC wild-card game in January, you'd be somewhere near the truth.

In summary, the scheme requires the defense to pressure the quarterback with a standard four-man rush whilst flooding the passing lanes with man-coverage defensive backs. It forces the offense to run the ball, which eats up the clock and keeps the score down.

In theory.

Not so at Gillette Stadium in Week 5. Then, Brady handed it to BenJarvus Green-Ellis for 136 yards and two scores in a 30-21 victory. Brady took a beating in that game from Jamaal Westerman, and I expect Rex Ryan to conjure up a few new exotic pressure schemes to win the turnover battle.

I'm taking the Jets to square up the divisional series with the Patriots, but it'll be a close one.

Week 11: Vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Prediction: Win (8-2)

Whatever Scott Pioli and Todd Haley thought they were getting in the Matt Cassel trade in 2009, it can't have been this.

Even in the Chiefs' impressive 28-0 Week 7 win in Oakland, Cassel managed to throw zero touchdowns and two picks, posting a miserable 38.3 passer rating. This was a marginal improvement over his late-season performances last season, when he imploded at the time his team needed him the most.

Mark this one down as a feel-good rebound victory for the Patriots. Deprived of their top offensive weapon—running back Jamaal Charles—the Chiefs have very little firepower to hurt teams on a mission like New England.

Week 12: At Philadelphia Eagles

Prediction: Loss (8-3)

It seems strange to predict a Patriots defeat to a 2-4 team with a penchant for boneheaded plays.

This has all the hallmarks of a trap game for New England. It would be very easy to look at Michael Vick's inconsistent passing game and the team's turnovers (ranked 31st with a minus-eight differential) and predict a blowout victory for the Pats.

The turnovers are mistakes cured by coaching. Ask Bill Belichick, who will have drilled his team with a similar message during the bye week, having gifted the Cowboys the ball four times in Week 6.

Vick is never going to be an authentic pocket passer in the mold of Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. But between himself and LeSean McCoy, they pose the greatest rushing threat in the league, and Vince Wilfork may find himself on the field more than usual chasing their shadows.

The Eagles, whilst inconsistent, are loaded with talent and are a match for any opponent. Just look at the names on display in their secondary for example, and Jason Babin's seven sacks are a clear indication that parts of their machine are in working order.

One month from now, their issues could be long behind them. I think the Patriots lose on the road, and Belichick uses the lessons learned here as motivation for the remainder of the season.

Week 13: Vs. Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Win (9-3)

The enduring image of the lockout centered on Jeff Saturday and Robert Kraft, hugging to celebrate the return to football, against a tragic personal backdrop for the Kraft family.

That's about as friendly as these two rivals have been for years, particularly since Peyton Manning cracked the code of the Patriots defense in 2005.

This year, the intensity is missing without Manning. Curtis Painter, or any other backup quarterback selected to wear the uniform by Week 13, will struggle to generate enough production to keep a playoff-bound team at bay.

Anyone who witnessed the 62-7 humiliation in Louisiana in Week 7 saw a Colts defense that quit on head coach Jim Caldwell. I can't see the relationship between the players and staff improving that much in five weeks' time.

You can bet that Tom Brady will be fired up regardless, and he will deliver a win that puts the Patriots on the brink of the playoffs. The only uncertainty here is whether the game is flexed out of its Sunday Night Football spot.

Week 14: At Washington Redskins

Prediction: Win (10-3)

In typical Mike Shanahan style, since he can't work out who he likes the most at quarterback, he has decided to undermine them both by supporting, then benching Rex Grossman and John Beck at times this season.

There's no telling how much better the 'Skins offense would have been with a consistent selection policy, but the losses of Chris Cooley and Tim Hightower to IR will hinder their growth.

On the flipside, they have a good, but probably not elite, defense that has kept the opposition to 15.7 points per game this season.

Games like this are tough to predict; a lot can happen in seven weeks, but right now, the Patriots are the better team, lighting up defenses and making key stops on third down. Book this one in as a win for the Patriots.

Week 15: At Denver Broncos

Prediction: Win (11-3)

The Patriots lost 20-17 on their last visit to Mile High, with Josh McDaniels sticking it to his former mentor Bill Belichick.

Kyle Orton threw for 330 yards and two touchdowns that day, but the 2011 Orton is out of form and low on confidence. So much so, that John Fox has installed Tim Tebow as his starting quarterback.

Anyone who saw his first start in Miami last weekend won't be too worried about facing the Denver offense this season. He was horrible for 57 minutes, before taking game into overtime against the worst team in football.

Whichever quarterback is starting by Week 15 won't have the firepower to match Brady and friends, and with the Patriots chasing an 11th win in this scenario, they'll be motivated to secure their playoff spot.

Week 16: Vs. Miami Dolphins

Prediction: Win (12-3)

By Week 16, the Dolphins will know what they need to do in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Currently 0-6 and staring down the barrel of another season like 2007 (they went 1-15 that year and took Jake Long with the first pick in the 2008 draft), fans are staying away from Sun Life Stadium in their droves.

Of all the remaining games on Miami's schedule, a victory on the road in New England—whose last regular season defeat there with Tom Brady under center came in 2006—seems the most unlikely.

Even if the Patriots have secured their playoff spot by then, Bill Belichick will use the motivation of playing for home-field advantage to keep the team focused.

It would take a turnaround of epic proportions to predict a loss here, and as long as Belichick remains as HC of the NEP, divisional games will always get taken seriously. Patriots roll to move to 12-3.

Week 17: Vs. Buffalo Bills

Prediction: Win (13-3, home advantage through the playoffs)

Ordinarily, Week 17 represents an opportunity to rest starters for teams like New England. However, after the first loss to the Bills since 2003 in Week 3, you can be sure that Tom Brady and the coaching staff will be fired up to even the score.

Much as the Bills have jumped out to a nice start in the AFC East, history tells us that they struggle to maintain the effort over 16 games. In 2008, Buffalo started 5-1 before slumping to 7-9 overall. Whilst I don't expect a collapse this dramatic in 2011, predicting a playoff berth for the Bills is a reach too far for me right now.

If Buffalo have nothing to play for, they are doomed. Bill Belichick will harass and berate his team all week in the lead-up to this game, letting them know in no uncertain terms that defeat here is unthinkable.

I still expect to see some fringe members of the roster grab extended playing time, such as Taylor Price, Shane Vereen and maybe even Ryan Mallett. But if the result is remotely in doubt, you can be sure that Brady will be out there connecting with Gronkowski and Hernandez just to make sure.

With that, the Patriots end 13-3, which gives them an excellent shot at taking home-field advantage in the playoffs. Whether they improve on 2010 from there remains to be seen.

What do you think? Do you agree or disagree with the record? Do any matchups end differently in your mind? Let me know in the comments section below.