Every NBA Team's 2020 New Year's Resolution
The new year brings with it packed gyms, empty organic-food sections in the grocery store, new budgets and all manner of goals we make and often fail to reach.
The same should go for the NBA's 30 teams.
Since these guys are almost universally in great shape, you won't find many fitness goals here (as opposed to our personal journals). And since "win a championship" is overly broad and theoretically something every team is shooting for, that was avoided, too.
Instead, we'll try to pinpoint team-specific problems, potential trade or free-agency targets and maybe even some philosophical adjustments.
Atlanta Hawks: Go Get Andre Drummond
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Chandler Parsons ($25.1 million), Evan Turner ($18.6 million), Allen Crabbe ($18.5 million) and Alex Len ($4.2 million) are all on expiring contracts. This team is going to have a mountain of cap space this summer.
And Andre Drummond should be a free agent. His $28.8 million player option for 2020-21 is its own mountain, but this upcoming free-agent class is almost devoid of star power. If Drummond enters the market, he's sure to get a long and substantial deal.
The Hawks are a team that could justify such a contract for Drummond.
There's still some time before extensions would kick in for John Collins (under contract through 2021) and Trae Young (through 2022), so their deals could be staggered with Drummond's. And the fit on the court makes sense.
Drummond has already shown an ability to coexist with a traditional power forward (Detroit is plus-2.9 points per 100 possessions with Drummond and Blake Griffin on the floor over the last three seasons, according to PBPStats.com), but he's never played with an offensive engine like Young.
And in a more modern offense, perhaps Drummond would become more of a roll man. This season, he's posting up more than rolling. Defenses would not sag off Young with Drummond setting ball screens, which would leave him with more space to dive to the rim. The attention Young commands would lead to plenty of open dunks for the big man.
And he and Collins shouldn't be stepping on each other's toes. Collins' ability to play above the rim may be his best trait, but he has the agility, athleticism and expanding range (36.8 percent from three on 4.2 attempts per game) to play more on the outside.
If Atlanta is intrigued enough by this potential trio, it could even try to land him via trade. There's always some risk waiting for free agency. The Los Angeles Lakers learned that when Paul George re-signed with the Oklahoma City Thunder, though things seemed to work out fine for all parties there.
Parsons' expiring contract, one young player and a draft pick might be enough to get there.
Boston Celtics: Develop Robert Williams III
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If the Boston Celtics were a band, Kemba Walker would probably be the lead singer. The positionless troika of Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward would provide the instrumentation (in the 168 minutes those three have played together, Boston is plus-20.9 points per 100 possessions).
What they may be missing is their roadie.
Daniel Theis is a solid positional defender who doesn't bring a ton of offensive punch. Enes Kanter is almost the inverse. Robert Williams III has the potential to be a devastating rim runner who'll pull defenders away from the band on the perimeter, and he has the size and athleticism to hold the backline on defense.
This season, among players who've logged at least as many minutes, Williams' box plus/minus ranks 10th. He's averaging 11.8 rebounds, 10.0 points, 2.8 blocks, 2.8 assists and 2.3 steals per 75 possessions with a 67.1 true shooting percentage. That's massive production without taking usage away from the four stars.
Now, there's reason to wonder whether those numbers would hold over more minutes and against more starters. Williams is also top-15 in fouls per 75 possessions. And like many young shot-blockers, he'll occasionally get caught chasing rejections while giving up buckets behind him.
The size and athleticism necessitate Boston spending plenty of time and resources to address those little issues.
If he works out all of the above and becomes Boston's version of Lob City-era DeAndre Jordan or Utah's Rudy Gobert, this team's championship pursuit will have to be taken far more seriously.
Brooklyn Nets: Patience
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Because of Kevin Durant's recovery from a ruptured Achilles, 2019-20 was always going to be something of a stopgap season for the Brooklyn Nets. Kyrie Irving's prolonged absence with a shoulder injury has reinforced that.
Still, these Spencer Dinwiddie-led Nets are firmly entrenched in the playoff race with a 66 percent chance to make the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight's projection model. And they've actually been better with Kyrie off the floor (minus-0.6 points per 100 possessions, compared to minus-1.4 with him on).
But there can't be many out there who think Brooklyn is anything resembling a contender without the two marquee stars.
Patience is a virtue, and it's one the Nets will have to practice for much of the next nine months. Assuming KD can get back to 85-90 percent of the player he was pre-Achilles injury, the fully formed version of this team should be worth the wait.
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Charlotte Hornets: Unload the Vets
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The Charlotte Hornets are a little better than anticipated. Their preseason over/under was set at 23 wins. At the moment, they're on pace for 30.
Devonte' Graham has been phenomenal, especially relative to expectations. Terry Rozier has perhaps come a little closer to living up to his huge contract than many figured he would. After two years of injuries, Cody Zeller is in the midst of a decent bounce-back campaign.
None of that should convince Charlotte to be buyers and shoot for the playoffs in 2020.
If the Hornets can get any sort of value for their bevy of expiring contracts—Marvin Williams, Bismack Biyombo, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and potentially Nicolas Batum, depending on what he does with his $27.1 million player option—then they have to consider moving them.
Even if they're just receiving second-round picks, that's better than losing all of the above for nothing this summer. And a reset around Graham, Rozier and Zeller (all in the same age range) needs to be surrounded with as much draft capital as possible.
The best bet for a meaningful return may be Williams. He's in his age-33 season, but he still has good size and decent switchability on defense. His 39.8 three-point percentage is probably the biggest reason numerous teams are monitoring his availability, per The Athletic's Shams Charania.
Chicago Bulls: Make Some Shots
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When we looked at the Chicago Bulls roster during the preseason, the pieces seemed to fit together so well.
Tomas Satoransky was a sharpshooting, low-usage point guard who could coexist with the ball-dominant Zach LaVine. Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. both looked like up-and-comers with inside-out chops. Otto Porter Jr. seemed like a good gap-filler who had just averaged 17.5 points and shot nearly 50 percent from three in his first partial season with the Bulls.
Things just haven't coalesced the way the team would've liked. And the culprit may be the most obvious and often predictable suspect: shooting.
Based on the locations of their shots and the league averages from those spots, Chicago should have the fourth-best effective field-goal percentage in the NBA, according to Cleaning the Glass. The reality hasn't been quite as good. The Bulls are 26th in actual effective field-goal percentage. Each of the team's top four and seven of the top 10 in total shot attempts are below the league average in the category.
This may feel overly reductive, but the "make-or-miss league" cliche exists for a reason. And with Chicago already taking the right shots, the next step is hitting them. If that means countless reps in empty gyms for Markkanen, Carter, Kris Dunn, Coby White and others during the summer of 2020, so be it.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Pass the Ball
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Some of the assist numbers feel almost impossibly low for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Kevin Love, a power forward, is leading the team in dimes per game at 2.9. Yes, the team leader has fewer than three per contest.
Maybe there's some redemption in the fact that there are another six (now five, following the departure of Jordan Clarkson) averaging two-plus assists, but it still doesn't add up to much. Cleveland is 26th in assists per 100 possessions.
But of course, loads of assists don't necessarily equal good passing. Should the Cavs get any credit for being in the top half of the league in total passes per game? Probably not since most of those feeds don't seem to be leading to scoring opportunities.
If Darius Garland and Collin Sexton want to become impactful offensive players (both are well below average in offensive box plus/minus), then they have to figure out how to create good shots for players other than themselves.
Both have decent handles and first steps. Both can get to the paint. Neither seems to have figured out exactly what to do after getting there.
Recognizing when the defense is ready for a drive and where it's coming from is a critical skill for rising playmakers to learn. There's plenty of time for both to gain that ability.
Dallas Mavericks: Take Even More 3s
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Dallas Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle recently went on an epic rant in front of reporters about Kristaps Porzingis and the evolution of NBA offense after the team's 102-98 win over the San Antonio Spurs:
"The post-up's not a good play anymore. It's just not a good play. It's not a good play for a 7'3" guy. It's a low-value situation. Our numbers are very substantial that when he spaces beyond the three-point line, we're a historically good offensive team. And when any of our guys go in there, our effectiveness is diminished exponentially. ... You got a 7'3" guy throwing it to a 6'10" guy on a lob? That's pretty f--king cool if you ask me. So look, let's get off of all this stuff about KP needs to go in the post. He doesn't. He doesn't. I'm OK with him going in there once in a while. But we don't post anybody. It's nothing personal against him.
Carlisle is right. Given the current rules and the way the game is played now, a traditional post-up serves little purpose other than to keep defenses honest.
This season, the league is averaging 0.89 points per possession out of the post. It's averaging 1.07 points per three-point attempt.
Of course, this doesn't mean teams want to abandon shots inside altogether. On the contrary, analytics-heavy attacks know that layups, free throws and threes are the most efficient forms of offense.
"I think the disconnect between this (aka reality) and the Cult of the Infinite Post Up is the latter think the rim area has been devalued offensively whereas Carlisle & others realize best way to use that space is to attack *into* it, not have a large dude plant himself there," The Athletic's Seth Partnow wrote.
In 2020, Carlisle and Porzingis need to lean even harder into this trend. Abandon the post-ups altogether.
Right now, KP is posting up 2.5 times per game and getting a measly 0.57 points per possession there. Replace those attempts with another layup and another three and Porzingis is a more efficient player.
He should look to his Latvian countryman, Davis Bertans, who is taking 2.6 more three-point attempts per 75 possessions. And Porzingis should set another goal to hit them at the same rate.
It's outside where that 7'3" frame can really be an advantage. Inside, Porzingis can be pushed around and out of position. With his height and high release, very few players should be able to bother his jump shot.
Denver Nuggets: Start Running Again
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The evolution of the Denver Nuggets during much of head coach Michael Malone's tenure has been fascinating to follow.
In each of the last four seasons, their relative offensive rating (points per 100 possessions relative to league average) has gone down while their relative defensive rating has improved.
By 2019-20, Nikola Jokic's Nuggets have become a defensive team, which may not be quite how they're perceived. The last successful era under George Karl, as well as the start of this one, relied more heavily on offense and the inherent advantage of being able to run at altitude.
Right now, Denver is second-to-last in pace and 11th in offense. A team headlined by Jokic and Jamal Murray, especially when it has a built-in environmental advantage, should run and score more than that.
The danger, of course, is potentially compromising that new defensive identity. If the Nuggets are thinking of getting out in transition, will they give up more offensive rebounds? If they're burning a bunch of energy running on fast breaks, will they have less on the defensive end?
Those are legitimate concerns, but true contenders traditionally find ways to be top-10 in both offense and defense. The Nuggets are fifth in points allowed per 100 possessions, and they have the talent to be in that range on offense.
Detroit Pistons: Rebuild
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No NBA organization screams mediocrity quite like the Detroit Pistons.
Since their 2004 championship, they've won right around half their games (49.2 percent, to be exact). They made the playoffs in seven of those 15 campaigns. And their simple rating system (point differential combined with strength of schedule) ranks 18th over that span.
All those numbers get worse if you just limit the sample to the course of Drummond's career.
After nearly two decades of treading water in the Eastern Conference, it's time for a rebuild in the Motor City.
"The franchise's hopes for a postseason berth are still alive, but one wonders if there is more of a long-term benefit in being sellers," James L. Edwards III wrote for The Athletic. "The trade deadline could present the front office the opportunity to remove some of the contracts left behind from the previous regime, providing somewhat of a fresh start."
Everyone should be available, with the possible exception of younger players like Luke Kennard or Sekou Doumbouya. But even with them, the "untouchable" label probably shouldn't apply.
There isn't a single name on the roster that feels like a surefire building block. Drummond is still just 26, but Detroit has tried in vain to build a winner around him for nearly a decade. Blake Griffin's best days are behind him. Ditto for Derrick Rose (though he's playing as well as he has in years). Reggie Jackson could have health concerns for the rest of his career.
Like Charlotte with its veterans, Detroit will have to take offers for its guys seriously. It's time to enter asset-accumulation mode.
Golden State Warriors: Scout This Draft Class
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After a frisky little four-game winning streak, and thanks to the underwhelming records at the bottom of the West's playoff picture, some started to half-jokingly wonder where the Golden State Warriors might be by the time Stephen Curry returns.
A 5.5-game deficit in the standings is surmountable, but the math certainly isn't in their favor.
The more important goal for Golden State is getting something out of this year away from contention. Regardless of where they land in the lottery for this underwhelming draft class, the Warriors need to nail the pick to keep their contention window open.
In 2020-21, Curry will be in his age-32 season. Klay Thompson will be in his age-30 campaign and coming off a torn ACL. Draymond Green already appears to have lost a step this season, and D'Angelo Russell has struggled to display the magic he did for the Nets last season.
A lottery pick who fits that group and can contribute right away could help keep the whole team young.
And if the scouting department starts to think that player might not be available this year, the Warriors probably have to think about trading their pick (perhaps in combination with Russell or Green) for a known commodity.
Houston Rockets: Figure out the Westbrook Conundrum
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After eight straight seasons in the black, Russell Westbrook's net rating swing is comfortably below zero for the 2019-20 Houston Rockets.
They're plus-3.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor and plus-6.6 with him off. When James Harden is operating without Westbrook, they're plus-8.8, a net rating that ranks in the 90th percentile.
There's still plenty of time for those numbers to reverse course, but Westbrook's anti-Moreyball game in Houston still feels like a square peg/round hole situation.
For years, general manager Daryl Morey has cultivated rosters that felt perfectly tailored to Harden's game. Give him a lob threat at the rim and three shooters around the perimeter and just let him cook.
With Westbrook in the mix, opponents seem as willing as ever to throw traps at the Beard. And you can't blame them.
Among the 253 individual campaigns with a 30-plus usage percentage during the three-point era, Westbrook's 2019-20 true shooting percentage ranks 235th. Only two seasons in the last five years were worse: Westbrook's 2018-19 and Kobe Bryant's 2015-16 swan song.
If Westbrook and the Rockets are going to make this work, he may have to make significant adjustments to his game (a lot to ask of a former MVP in his early 30s).
Perhaps, as suggested by Thinking Basketball's Ben Taylor, playing a bit more like Ben Simmons might help. Put him in the dunker's spot. Shoot fewer threes. Get creative.
Because at the moment, it's hard to see the right role for Westbrook with the Rockets. And it's not hard to see another epic "shoot his own team out of a game in the playoffs" moment.
Indiana Pacers: Modernize
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Mid-range shots are fine in moderation. Too many inevitably lower the ceiling on offense.
So far this season, the Indiana Pacers have taken 1,155 two-pointers from three feet and out. That's nearly 40 percent of their total field-goal attempts, and they're getting just 0.87 points per attempt on those looks.
That gives the rest of the offense—threes, layups and free-throw attempts—a lot of ground to make up just to get back to average, which is right where the team is.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Pacers are 15th in points per 100 possessions. To move up to the next tier and be real contenders, they have to be better than that.
Plenty of players could stand to take a few more threes, too. Their percentages are down a bit this season, but Jeremy Lamb, T.J. Warren and Domantas Sabonis could all up their volume.
This isn't a call for Indiana to completely abandon the mid-range, of course. If a player is more comfortable there, it may take time to adjust to a new approach. And those shots can always serve as a fallback or counter.
But getting this much of your offense from there is asking for trouble.
Los Angeles Clippers: Load Management
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The Los Angeles Clippers entered title-or-bust territory when they traded three first-round picks and two first-round pick swaps for Paul George. Anything short of a championship in 2020 could be seen as a bit of a letdown.
In an effort to be as close to full strength as possible by the time the postseason rolls around, the Clippers have followed the Toronto Raptors' 2018-19 approach to Kawhi Leonard's minutes. Until we hear a better title for it, that approach remains named "load management."
"It's our philosophy," head coach Doc Rivers recently told reporters in response to LeBron James' thoughts on the matter. "I don't know what theirs are. I think theirs is whatever LeBron says it is. That makes a lot of sense to me. I like what we're doing. I think it's a smart thing to do. Who knows? We'll see at the end."
It paid off in the end for Toronto, of course. During the 2019 Finals, which Toronto won, Leonard credited the philosophy for his presence on the floor.
"I don't think I'd be playing right now if I would've tried to go through the season," he told ESPN's Rachel Nichols (h/t TSN).
In that series, Kawhi hobbled his way to 28.5 points, 9.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists and a Finals MVP. If he and the rest of the Clippers' top four scorers are healthy come June, it's not hard to imagine a third championship with a third different team for Leonard.
So far this season, L.A. has played 98 minutes with Leonard, George, Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell on the floor. It's plus-61 in those minutes. The team may be using that foursome sparingly now, but you have to imagine it'll take on a heavier responsibility in the playoffs.
Los Angeles Lakers: Find the Supporting Cast
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The Los Angeles Lakers may well have enough talent on the roster to win a title in 2020. According to FiveThirtyEight's projections, the Lakers' 16 percent shot at the championship gives them the third-best odds.
If they fall short, the supporting cast will be an easy scapegoat.
JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard are combining to give the team excellent minutes at center. Danny Green hasn't been quite the three-and-D wonder he was for Toronto, but he's still a clear plus. Alex Caruso and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both contributing at an above-average level, according to FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR rating.
Those are solid returns, but the roster after LeBron James and Anthony Davis doesn't inspire as much confidence as that of the Clippers or Milwaukee Bucks. There may be arguments for the depth of other squads over L.A.'s, too.
Is there a third star (or borderline star) out there who might join the Lakers? Do they have any ability to trade for one? KCP has an implicit no-trade clause, and Green is exactly the kind of glue guy LeBron and AD need. There aren't many other tradable deals on the books.
That means L.A. may have to get creative. Does Kyle Kuzma have any trade value? Will any veteran be open to joining this contender on a mid-level exception during the summer? Player development and scouting may have to take center stage, as they have in Toronto.
Again, this conversation might all be moot if the Lakers win it all in June, but it's not hard to talk yourself into them needing a little more help around the top two.
Memphis Grizzlies: More Brandon Clarke
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Some may have thought the Memphis Grizzlies clung to the grit-and-grind era a little longer than they should have. When you look at the young core they now have in place, it's tough to quibble with how they got here.
The Grizzlies almost certainly aren't making the playoffs, but Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke could have them there before too long.
JJJ still fouls too much and doesn't rebound enough, but his combination of rim protection and three-point shooting is intriguing. Morant is an athletic blur who already has three 20-and-10 games. Only five players in NBA history had more through their first 28 career contests.
Clarke gets a little less attention than his lottery-pick teammates, but his potential may be every bit as exciting. Among those who logged at least 500 minutes, Joel Embiid, Tim Duncan, Karl-Anthony Towns and Arvydas Sabonis are the only rookies who matched or exceeded his averages for points (21.1), rebounds (9.0), assists (2.3) and blocks (1.5) per 75 possessions.
The problem is that Memphis is only playing him 21.5 minutes per game. It's understandable. Jackson and Jonas Valanciunas are good, and the Grizzlies' net points per 100 possessions drop fairly significantly with Clarke on the floor.
But this trio needs as much developmental time as possible. And during a year in which the playoffs are more than a long shot, now is the right time to test the waters.
Memphis is getting annihilated when all three are playing, but the sample size is too small for meaningful takeaways. On-the-job training should help them figure out how to play winning basketball together.
Miami Heat: Unload Some Vets
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This one is easier said than done.
Dion Waiters has more suspensions (three) this season than minutes played (not a one). After failing the Miami Heat's preseason conditioning test, James Johnson has played just 68 minutes. They make a combined $27.4 million.
That money would typically be pretty good salary-matching fodder for trades, but without the opportunity to show what they can do, neither can have much value.
Miami may give them that opportunity before the deadline, though. The Athletic's Shams Charania reported on a recent meeting between the duo and team brass:
"Heat president Pat Riley met with guard Dion Waiters and forward James Johnson recently and addressed both, making it clear that the team hopes for a fresh start and wants both to reintegrate themselves as part of the team, league sources say. Miami has not closed the door on Waiters playing again for them, according to those sources. Waiters has been suspended three different times this season by the Heat and has had a tumultuous season. Johnson has also missed time this season, being away from the team for what was termed as 'personal reasons.'"
When engaged, Johnson can be a versatile defender and playmaking forward. For a five-season stretch from 2013-14 to 2017-18, he averaged 15.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.6 blocks and 1.4 steals per 75 possessions. Marc Gasol was the only player in the league who matched or exceeded all those marks over those years.
He's in his age-32 season, so the peak years may be behind him, but his size and well-rounded game could help a number of contenders.
It's a little tougher to sell anyone on Waiters' game. Even when he is healthy, he's been one of the most negatively impactful players in basketball.
Among the 1,136 players who've logged any NBA minutes during Waiters' career, he ranks 1,105th in wins over replacement player. Among the 72 players with at least as many shot attempts in that stretch, he's 72nd in true shooting percentage.
It's tough to imagine any team wanting to take on his 2020-21 salary ($12.7 million), baggage and game.
Milwaukee Bucks: Find the Range
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If the generic "win the championship" goal is off-limits, you have to get nitpicky with the Milwaukee Bucks.
They're on a 70-win pace and have the best chance at a championship, according to FiveThirtyEight's projections. Reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is on pace for the fourth-best single-season box plus/minus of all time. And almost every member of the supporting cast is contributing at an above-replacement-player level.
If you had to pick one goal, it might be more accurate shooting from a handful of rotation players. Milwaukee is 12th in the league in three-point percentage, but Eric Bledsoe, Sterling Brown, Giannis, Donte DiVincenzo, Pat Connaughton, Brook Lopez and Robin Lopez are all hitting their threes at a below-average rate.
The biggest surprise there may be Brook, who was generally trending up as a floor-spacer from 2016-17 to 2018-19. In that last campaign, he hit 36.5 percent of his 6.3 attempts per game. His placement several feet behind the three-point line was key for Milwaukee's spacing.
In 2019-20, he's down to just 30.6 percent from deep. Defenses generally still honor him out at the arc, but they may feel less hesitant to help on Giannis' drives if he keeps shooting at this level.
In the postseason, when opponents are focused more than ever on Giannis, he'll need reliable outlets around the perimeter.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Make KAT Happy
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"[Karl Anthony Towns is] under contract until 2023-24 but has less reason than Antetokounmpo to be thrilled with his team's trajectory," The Athletic's Ethan Strauss reported. "This was a topic among multiple team executives at the recent G League Showcase, with a few relaying word that Towns is unhappy in Minnesota."
Uh oh.
Life as a small-market NBA team strikes again. Towns is over four seasons from any kind of free agency, and the sharks are already circling.
Of course, all that time also means Minnesota should have plenty of chances to improve his situation and avoid a full-blown trade demand before the end of the 2023-24 campaign.
The Timberwolves should start looking for those chances now. Make sure everyone knows that every player but Towns is available. He has the talent to serve as an offensive centerpiece, and those players don't come around often.
Perhaps surrounding him with more shooting is the path to legitimate contention. Maybe there's some team out there that can talk itself into Andrew Wiggins. Robert Covington may be able to net a draft pick.
The Wolves already have a foundational player. They need to do whatever they can to surround him with the right talent and make him happy.
New Orleans Pelicans: Get Zion Williamson on the Floor
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This one may feel like a bit of a cop-out given Shams Charania's Tuesday report for Stadium hinting at a January debut. But NBA fans should be itching to see Zion Williamson on the floor for real games.
What he did in the preseason was absurd: 23.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.5 steals in just 27.2 minutes per game with a 71.4 field-goal percentage.
Those numbers come with a massive "small sample size" warning, but pretty much everything that made him one of the most dominant players in college basketball history appeared to translate.
Zion's size, explosiveness off the catch, ability to play above the rim and feel for opposing defenses makes for a lethal combination. And when you watch the Pelicans now, it's not hard to see how seamlessly he would fit with Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday and Derrick Favors.
Of course, all that burst and torque with Williamson's frame is cause for health concerns. How many of those takeoffs, landings and cuts can his knees (the reason for this absence) and other joints take?
In an effort to stave off more injuries in the future, the Pelicans are reportedly teaching Williamson how to run and walk differently as part of his recovery. That may seem like a radical approach. But given Zion's talent level, every idea to keep him healthy should be on the table.
New York Knicks: Start Fresh
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The New York Knicks are terrible. They've been terrible for most of the last 20 years. And right now, there isn't much on the roster resembling a light at the end of the tunnel.
It's too early to give up on Frank Ntilikina and Kevin Knox, but neither has sniffed replacement-level play in the NBA. Both are right around or below 50 in true shooting percentage.
Julius Randle is a bit older and has his own efficiency problems. His bull-in-a-china-shop game isn't as effective now as it might have been 20 years ago.
And Dennis Smith Jr., who's off to as rough a statistical start as Ntilikina and Knox, has already found himself the subject of trade rumors he eventually refuted.
The closest thing to hope comes from Mitchell Robinson and RJ Barrett.
"All signs from both the Knicks and teams that have talked to the Knicks is that they are open for business trade-wise," Yahoo Sports' Keith Smith wrote. "The only consensus players off the table are RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson. It's going to be a busy month or so for New York leading up to the trade deadline."
As it should be. This team, as currently constructed, is going nowhere.
The Knicks need to be poking around the league to see if anyone thinks they can revive the careers of the youngsters mentioned above. Veterans like Marcus Morris Sr., Taj Gibson, Wayne Ellington and Bobby Portis should all be available.
If they can recoup any sort of value from those players, they need to jump on it.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Make the Playoffs
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The Oklahoma City Thunder have been in town for 11 full seasons. They've made the playoffs in nine of them. After trading both Paul George and Russell Westbrook this summer, missing a third time wouldn't have been surprising. It probably wouldn't have been too painful either, thanks to a whopping 10 first-round picks or pick swaps rolling in through various deals.
Combining that haul, which, oh, by the way, included Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with yet another playoff appearance would make for quite a 2020 for a passionate fanbase.
At the moment, OKC looks as good as in. It's two games above .500, while the eighth-place San Antonio Spurs are four games below. And according to FiveThirtyEight, OKC has a 76 percent chance to get in.
None of this should be terribly surprising.
Chris Paul is still good. Quite good, actually. During his age-34 season, he's averaging 16.6 points and 6.5 assists with a 60.2 true shooting percentage. The Thunder are plus-2.7 points per 100 possessions when he's on the court, compared to minus-3.4 when he's off.
With CP3 conducting a team that includes Steven Adams, Danilo Gallinari, SGA, Dennis Schroder, Nerlens Noel and a handful of solid role players, OKC has a squad it can root for into the summer, as well as a bright future to look forward to.
This is how you run a dual-track rebuild.
Orlando Magic: Find Some Offense
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If the 2019-20 season ended today, the Orlando Magic would sneak into the playoffs as the Eastern Conference's eighth seed (and would promptly be dispatched by the Bucks).
At 105.3 points per 100 possessions, they would have the worst offense of any playoff team and be over two points shy of the next-worst attack among the top 16 teams.
If Orlando ever wants to graduate from "borderline playoff team in the East," it has to find another player or two who can score consistently. Right now, that list isn't much longer than Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier, who have one 20-point-per-game season between their careers.
Both would be great third options (maybe second) for an effective offense. When they're your 1A and 1B, you're in trouble.
Back in November, The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor reported that the Magic "expressed interest" in trading for DeMar DeRozan. He certainly has the reputation of a more established scorer. And though he's rarely been above the league's average true shooting percentage, he is this season.
His biggest problem has always been how much worse his teams perform defensively when he's on the floor, and he's had a negative net rating swing in 10 of his 11 seasons.
Orlando, though, may have enough positive defenders to hide his weaknesses on that end. Even if they gave up Aaron Gordon (who might be a nice fit for the San Antonio Spurs), the Magic could still flank DeRozan with Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac on defense.
It could actually be about as close to an ideal situation as you can find for DeRozan.
Philadelphia 76ers: Add a Shooter
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For all the talk of the Philadelphia 76ers needing to break up Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, the duo has performed extremely well together.
This season, Philly is plus-6.7 points per 100 possessions (82nd percentile) when those two share the floor. With the same alignment, the Sixers were in the 94th percentile last season and the 99th the season before that.
These are the team's two most talented players. It's way too early to think about splitting them up. Instead, the focus should be on how to best complement them.
With Embiid's career 31.9 three-point percentage and Simmons' outright refusal to take jumpers, the obvious potential additions are shooters. Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris and Al Horford are all decent from behind the arc, and Philly is top-10 in three-point percentage, but the Sixers still lack that constant threat around the perimeter.
Perhaps Furkan Korkmaz could eventually fill the role JJ Redick once did, but it's worth looking around the trade market and free agency to see if there's another option. The more shooting the 76ers have to pull defenders away from Simmons and Embiid, the better.
Phoenix Suns: Play Some Defense
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The Phoenix Suns may have a culture problem.
For each of the last 13 seasons, they've been at or below the league-average defensive rating. Overall during the same stretch, they're 28th in that stat.
On what is perhaps a related note, they haven't made the postseason since 2010.
I'm not sure what it takes to shake a team out of bad habits that have lasted over a decade and spanned seven head coaches. Maybe a new defensive guru as an assistant would help.
Perhaps actively seeking out a rim protector is in order. If you scan Phoenix's top 20 in wins over replacement player during the last 10 seasons, Tyson Chandler is about the only defensive anchor you'll find, and he was already in his age-33 season when he joined the Suns in 2015-16.
The short-term answer might just be the players already on the roster taking a little more pride in their defense. And that's something that probably starts with the team's leader.
"Devin Booker ranks 245th of 250 qualified players in 538's RAPTOR defensive metric," Forbes' Ben Dowsett tweeted. "He ranks 430th of 447 for ESPN's Defensive RPM metric. The Suns are 11 points per-100 better defensively when he sits than when he plays."
In a thread following that tweet, Dowsett went on to detail how Booker's ranks in those metrics have hovered around the same area for five years now. It's hard to set a positive defensive culture from the wing (that's usually a rim protector's job), but the least Phoenix could ask of Booker would be to not actively hurt the team on that end.
Portland Trail Blazers: Explore the Trade Market
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After a series of confusing summer moves and a terrible start to the 2019-20 regular season, the Portland Trail Blazers are back in the Western Conference playoff hunt.
But the team certainly shouldn't feel comfortable. Following a four-game losing streak, Portland is now 9-11 since it added Carmelo Anthony. The shine is wearing off that signing.
There aren't many desperation moves left that don't involve a big trade. On the Lowe Post podcast, ESPN's Marc Spears said moving CJ McCollum wouldn't sit well with Damian Lillard, but it might be time to at least explore the market.
Both guards are dynamic offensive players. But even if they're locked in and working hard on the other end, their combined lack of size is always going to have them operating at a disadvantage.
This isn't some new revelation, but finding a bigger wing who could take on some of the league's tougher defensive assignments and pairing him with Lillard could do wonders for a team near the bottom third of the league in points allowed per 100 possessions.
Injuries may have made this a little trickier, but the Blazers should be gauging the value of Hassan Whiteside, too. If he could net the Blazers a more versatile player, losing a bunch of games and playing centerless lineups in this non-contending season would be worthwhile.
Sacramento Kings: Stabilize
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The best goals are generally measurable.
Articles like this aren't the appropriate forum to call for someone to lose their job or governorship, and this goal may well be achieved under chairman Vivek Ranadive and general manager Vlade Divac. But the Kings need some stability.
Any time things seem to be heading in the right direction for Sacramento, something derails.
Last season, despite competing for a playoff spot throughout much of the campaign for the first time in over a decade, management could seemingly never get on the same page as head coach Dave Joerger. He was fired during the offseason.
In 2019-20, things certainly aren't going swimmingly, but Buddy Hield talking about "trust issues" and Dewayne Dedmon violating the collective bargaining agreement by publicly requesting a trade haven't helped.
The saddest part is that none of this is shocking for people who've even casually followed the Kings over the last couple of decades. The year-in, year-out volatility is a big part of why the team hasn't made the playoffs since 2006.
Again, it's hard to put a finger on exactly how it would pull this off, but Sacramento needs some stability.
San Antonio Spurs: Rebuild
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It's time.
Don't be fooled by the fact that the San Antonio Spurs have clawed back into contention for a playoff spot. They're just lucky the back half of the Western Conference is down this season.
The reality is that they don't have a title-contending team. In fact, they don't even have a team that could put a little fear in a higher seed during the first round.
For the second season in a row, San Antonio is 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions and outside the top 10 in points scored per 100 possessions. Even more alarming, the team's two leading scorers (who also happen to be the two highest-paid) may be the culprits.
Over the course of their time together, the Spurs are minus-0.7 points per 100 possessions when both LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan are on the floor, per PBPStats.com. They're minus-3.7 when DeRozan is on the floor without Aldridge, plus-2.0 when Aldridge is on the floor without DeRozan and plus-7.4 when both are off.
And all the moves that led to this mid-range-happy and defense-averse top two were head-scratchers at the time.
Sure, it made sense for San Antonio to want to stay relevant, but the extensions for Aldridge and Pau Gasol went to players past their primes. Even if Kawhi Leonard was never going to play another game in San Antonio, the return in that trade is borderline unforgivable. And this summer's unloading of Davis Bertans looks even worse given how the Latvian Laser is torching nets for the Washington Wizards.
Instead of more moves aimed at treading water, San Antonio needs to head into an aggressive rebuild. See what you can get for DeRozan and Aldridge. Give more developmental minutes to young guards like Dejounte Murray, Derrick White and Lonnie Walker IV. Don't be afraid to get creative and play all three of those guys together.
For 20-plus years, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and this team's infrastructure made it the class of the NBA. The Spurs deserve all the credit they get for that. The reality of the moment is that we probably already saw the end of that run.
It's time to reinvent.
Toronto Raptors: Keep Masai Ujiri
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We go from front offices that have struggled over the last few years to one that is borderline unassailable.
Over the course of his six-plus seasons with the Toronto Raptors, president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri's team is rocking a .653 winning percentage. The Warriors, Spurs and Rockets are the only organizations with better records over that span.
Consider how well the following acquisitions turned out for Ujiri: Fred VanVleet (undrafted free agent), Pascal Siakam (27th pick), OG Anunoby (23rd pick), Marc Gasol (midseason trade before winning a title) and Norman Powell (46th pick). Terence Davis, Chris Boucher and Matt Thomas, each of whom was brought aboard as an undrafted free agent, look like they could be more Ujiri success stories.
He probably deserves some credit for the player-development system implemented under his watch, too.
And, of course, during his time in Toronto, Ujiri pulled off the coup that was the Kawhi Leonard trade and brought the Raptors their first NBA championship. With that resume, the executive is understandably on the radar of at least one competitor: the New York Knicks.
Executives who can establish a winning culture as quickly and thoroughly as Ujiri did in Toronto are rare, and the Raptors need to do everything in their power to keep him around.
Beyond money, it wouldn't hurt to constantly remind him what he built north of the border, as well as the level of dysfunction in New York over the last 20 years. A solid, rising young core should help, too.
But if the Knicks do come calling, there could be some allure to being the one person who could fix one of the league's most storied franchises.
Utah Jazz: Get an All-Star Nod
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Over the course of the Quin Snyder era, the Utah Jazz are 10th in the NBA in winning percentage. Each of the nine teams ahead of them has had at least two different All-Stars during that span.
Gordon Hayward's 2016-17 campaign is the only All-Star nod the Jazz have received since 2014-15, and you have to go back to Deron Williams' 2010-11 season to find the last All-Star selection before that. For whatever reason, Utah has had a tough time getting All-Star votes from fans and coaches during the 2010s, and it's not because they didn't have deserving players.
Rudy Gobert has won two Defensive Player of the Year awards and made two All-NBA teams. He's the most glaring omission. Since the start of the 2014-15 campaign, he's 12th in the NBA in box plus/minus. Since 2016-17, he's finished second twice and seventh once in win shares.
He doesn't put up the kind of scoring numbers that traditionally garner All-Star love, but in terms of impact, he's absolutely one of the top 24 players in the league.
And if Gobert gets snubbed again, Utah should have another candidate for this goal in 2020.
The catch-all numbers don't love Donovan Mitchell quite as much as they do Gobert, but his 25.2 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game are closer to more traditional All-Star stats. His plus-9.6 net rating swing also shows this isn't empty-calorie production.
If the Jazz are one of the top teams in the West, their leading scorer is going to be in the All-Star discussion.
Washington Wizards: Don't Have the Worst Defense of All Time
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The Washington Wizards are right around the pace for their preseason over/under of 26.5 wins, but they've been a more entertaining brand of bad than many expected.
Their 112.1 points per 100 possessions rank sixth in the league. Bradley Beal is averaging 27.8 points and 6.7 assists. Davis Bertans is averaging 15.4 points and 3.8 threes while shooting 43.4 percent from deep. Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant and Isaiah Thomas are all over 13 points per game. Four more are averaging double figures.
This is a fun and—after Beal—balanced attack.
But on the other end? My goodness, it's bad. The 116.7 points per 100 possessions Washington is allowing are on track to be the second-most in NBA history. Only last season's Cleveland Cavaliers were worse, but there's plenty of time to catch them.
The Wizards shouldn't want that. It would be a shame to attach the dubious distinction of the worst defense of all time to this better-than-anticipated campaign.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, courtesy of Basketball Reference, NBA.com or Cleaning the Glass and current heading into games on Tuesday.
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