Answering Warriors' Biggest Questions Entering 2017-18 Home Stretch
With less than a month remaining in the 2017-18 campaign, the Golden State Warriors are within 15 games of their first finish line.
Usually, this would be a time for muscle-flexing and maximizing rest. But the Dubs can't relax just yet, because some pressing inquiries must be answered over the final stretch.
They have an unsettled rotation spot, an injury report the length of a short story and some uncharacteristic statistics with unclear importance.
They're still the favorites when healthy, and they have ample time to get as close to 100 percent before the second season tips. But the following five questions are all worth tracking over the coming weeks, and we have examined where each one sits heading into the final turn.
Who's the Best Option at Center?
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Zaza Pachulia was the every-night starter—until he wasn't.
The 34-year-old opened the first 48 games he played this season, but he was also skipped over entirely on two different occasions—both tilts with the Cleveland Cavaliers, each started by rookie big man Jordan Bell. Pachulia was later ushered into a reserve role out of the All-Star break, with high-flying 7-footer JaVale McGee assuming the opening gig.
Bell might have been the choice had he not endured injuries to both ankles. If David West didn't mean so much to the second unit, maybe he'd be in the mix, too. And don't forget about the center minutes that can go to Draymond Green, Kevin Durant and Kevon Looney depending on the circumstances.
So, which option is preferred? Well, that's sort of a trick question, as it has no correct answer.
"We've played center by committee ever since I've been here," head coach Steve Kerr told Jared Dubin of Vice Sports. "We've got a lot of different looks with our centers. Different skill sets. Different sizes. Different speeds. It all kind of depends on matchups."
The most important playoff minutes will almost assuredly see Green manning the middle, although Durant and even Bell could be factors as well. Pachulia and McGee won't be discarded, but each could see a repeat of 2017, when their floor time was trimmed for the second season. West's role is about as rock-solid as any non-All-Star's on this squad, so don't expect much alteration to his substitution pattern.
Is the Defense Bored or Regressing?
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Kerr's first three seasons featured the following rankings in defensive efficiency—first in 2014-15, fourth the next season and second last year. The current group appears well on its way to lowering that floor.
Golden State finds itself at a still-good-but-definitely-not-great sixth. Its stoppers have pieced together some dominant stretches (first in November, second in December), but nothing has sustained. This was the Association's fifth-worst defense in January, and it's back outside the top in March (12th).
Kerr's club has surrendered 100-plus points on 52 occasions. That's already 10 more than the 2014-15 iteration allowed all season and three short of being the most his Warriors have ever ceded.
But the significance of those stats might vary wildly between observers. Some might see a top-heavy team that's running on fumes after three straight trips to the NBA Finals. To others, though, this is more about energy conservation and not giving maximum effort until it's required.
"The Warriors look more bored than ever in the last four years," Shaun Powell wrote for NBA.com. "I'm not buying the vulnerability stuff. I just think there's no regular-season urgency with a team that's still stacked and built to last through June."
If the Dubs are switch-flippers, they're no different than the recent dynasties. Think about LeBron James' Miami Heat. Or the Shaquille O'Neal-Kobe Bryant Los Angeles Lakers. Just look at the rest doled out by San Antonio Spurs skipper Gregg Popovich to see what he thinks about sprinting through the entire 82-game marathon.
Golden State has earned the benefit of the doubt. But it better be ready for the offensive juggernauts standing between this franchise and a successful title defense.
Is the No. 1 Seed Still a Target?
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Maybe the better question here is whether it should be an aim.
This much seems clear—the Warriors won't run themselves ragged for any regular-season achievement. They've learned that lesson. Their mounting injury report also either shows extra caution already being exercised or highlights the need for rehab and rest over the remaining month.
The Dubs seem like they're least in need of the top seed. Sure, they've carried it three years running, but they've only had two series last the full seven games in that stretch. And while having home court perhaps helped them outlast the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2016 Western Conference Finals, it proved powerless to stop the sport's greatest collapse just one round later.
That was Golden State's only series loss under Kerr, and it happened inside Oracle Arena. Meanwhile, the Warriors have secured both a championship and a conference title away from home.
"The season starts over when you're in the playoffs anyway, so it doesn't matter," Durant said, per ESPN.com's Chris Haynes. "You're going to have to get through these teams to get to where you want to go. You have to play at home and on the road, so it really doesn't matter."
For a team that has seen its focus level waver throughout the season, maybe seeing itself listed below the top line could be a powerful wake-up call. Even if it had no psychological effect, would anyone not favor Golden State in a playoff series just because it was seeded second?
The importance of the top seed could be moot, anyway, as it's increasingly likely the Houston Rockets won't give it up. After Monday's win over the Spurs, the Rockets have both a two-game lead on—plus the tiebreaker over—the Warriors.
How Threatening Is Houston?
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The Rockets are wading into uncharted waters for a Warriors' rival, one analytically based three ball at a time.
Golden State has always had some type of cushion between its competitors. Not so with Houston, which has two winning streaks (one 14 games, the other 17) longer than the Warriors' best (11). The Rockets have climbed within a point per 100 possessions of the defending champs in net efficiency (plus-9.1 to the Dubs' plus-10.0), and they won their season series 2-1.
It'll take a two-way machine to dethrone the Dubs, and the Rockets are resembling just that. They have the NBA's second-best offense and ninth-ranked defense, plus perhaps the only backcourt capable of outshining the Splash Brothers. The Chris Paul-James Harden combo has been ridiculous across the board, producing a combined 49.8 points, 16.8 assists and 10.6 rebounds on a nightly basis.
"Paul and Harden form the most devastating playmaking tandem we've ever seen," Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes wrote. "The former is one of the great pure point guards of all time, and the latter represents an evolutionary leap forward at the position. ... With those two ensuring Houston never has anything less than an elite offensive pilot at the controls, the scoring never stops."
Pair those two with Clint Capela, and Houston becomes virtually unbeatable. The Rockets have had that trio available for 37 games this season, and they're an absurd 35-2 in those contests.
All that said, Golden State would still be the favorite in a playoff series, possibly by a significant margin. The Rockets have two stars to the Warriors' four, and there aren't as many two-way contributors in Space City as there are in the Bay. Tack on Golden State's playoff success and the lack of it for Paul, Harden and head coach Mike D'Antoni, and there are reasons to believe the Warriors' primary threats are internal.
How Concerning Are Curry's Ankle Problems?
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Any mention of Stephen Curry's right ankle can be nerve-wracking, but it's the repeat nature of his recent troubles that alarm in ways they hadn't in years.
He has sprained the twice surgically repaired joint four times since Dec. 4, ailments that have cost him 15 games and counting. For context, that's more action than he missed over the past four campaigns combined.
There will be no bigger development down the stretch than Curry's return and ability to get himself back to full strength. He might not be the most talented player on the team, but he's clearly the most important.
His inside-the-arena shooting range stretches out defenses beyond their functional limits. But when you consider he's also a deft dribbler and a creative table-setter, his specific—and unprecedented—skill set transforms this attack from great to historic.
That's why his absence is the only one Golden State isn't built to withstand. With him, the Warriors rock opponents by a world-beating 14.7 points per 100 possessions. Without him, that number tumbles to 4.9, or a touch more efficient than a Boston Celtics team that's been without Gordon Hayward since the season-opener.
"With Curry, Golden State is a swaggering, shot-making juggernaut, one that seems unstoppable whenever this team ramps it up to 11—just as it did during last year's playoffs, when it won 15 straight games and went 16-1 to claim that second title," Tim Bontemps of the Washington Post wrote. "But without him, the Warriors become a merely great team, and one that would—at a minimum—be given a hell of a run by the Rockets and some of the league's other elite teams."
That's why this remains the club's biggest worry, even if Curry's personal trainer Brandon Payne says his recent sprain is "nothing major," via Bay Area News Group. If it's Curry's ankle, it doesn't have to be major to send a shockwave through the hoops world.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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