Top 2016 Offseason Priorities for the Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers' season is over. In the grand scheme of things, it has to be considered a success.
They made the NBA playoffs in spite of an offseason overhaul and change of direction. They lost a hard-fought series with the Toronto Raptors in which they were just one score down with less than a minute to go in Game 7.
Sometimes progress is measured by championships. Sometimes it’s measured more incrementally, and in that regard the Pacers had a successful year.
But how do they go forward from here, and what is the next step toward getting back to contender status?
Find a Coach
This is the first and most important thing, and it might not be a bad idea to show a little more urgency.
Larry Bird, the Pacers' president of basketball operations, decided not to renew Frank Vogel’s contract despite Vogel’s success with the team. Over six seasons, Vogel had a 250-181 record during the regular season and went 31-30 in the playoffs, making the Eastern Conference Finals twice.
Bird made the decision because he was looking for a more offensive-minded voice, according to Matt Adams of Fox 59:
"Bird’s biggest issue centered around the team’s offense. He said the defense had been “great,” but the team needed to score more points. He also disliked the up-and-down nature of this year’s Pacers team, which had a tendency to play great one night and then disappear the next. And as for the postseason, Bird wants a better ending than a first-round loss to the Toronto Raptors.
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Another factor was Bird wanted Paul George to play more 4, and Vogel sided with the player, who preferred to stay at small forward. Tom Ziller of SB Nation noted:
"Sure, Bird's demands of Vogel to turn this defense-first roster into a fleet scoring machine are absurd. If you crack wise about Vivek Ranadive for prioritizing aesthetics over effectiveness, sling some insults Larry Legend's way as well. Bird's centerpiece star, Paul George, wasn't interested in playing power forward after trying it for a couple of weeks. Vogel did the best he could to implement small lineups with a fairly big roster (including Myles Turner, the team's next star, who was drafted by Bird).
Bird made demands of Vogel, Vogel did what he could with the ingredients at hand and didn't meet expectations. It's absolutely worth asking if the expectations were absurd. But Bird didn't think so, and because of that and the contract situation, there was no responsible way in which he could bring Vogel back. C'est la vie.
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Ergo, the new coach must be offensive-minded and able to address the whole "George's position" thing.
Two of the top options, Luke Walton and Tom Thibodeau, have already been taken by the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively. The Sacramento Kings snatched up Dave Joerger almost as soon as he became available.
The New York Knicks and Houston Rockets are involved in coaching searches as well. And now the Orlando Magic have been added to that list after Scott Skiles announced his resignation, according to the Magic’s official website.
Many of the usual coaching opening suspects (Jeff Van Gundy, Mark Jackson, etc.) don’t necessarily fit with the more modern, court-stretching style of offense Bird seems to be looking for.
One coach who does and is allegedly drawing the Pacers' interest is Jeff Hornacek. He could be an excellent choice.
Hornacek was most recently coach of the Phoenix Suns. He did an excellent job during his initial season, helping a number of his younger players—such as Markief and Marcus Morris, Gerald Green and Goran Dragic—to breakout seasons. Dragic even won the Most Improved Player award.
Hornacek never made the playoffs, but that had more to do with the management sabotaging him by overplaying the trade market the following season.
His style of “positionless” basketball seems to fit right in with where Bird wants the Pacers to go, and star George would thrive because of his versatility. He could play the 4 without being a 4. Everyone's happy.
If not Hornacek, Bird could bring Mike D’Antoni back into the coaching world. Or he could look to Ettore Messina, someone from the Greg Popovich coaching tree (as an assistant for the San Antonio Spurs the last two seasons) and one of the most successful coaches in Euroleague history.
Contract Situation
Before addressing what they need to do with the roster itself, we must look at what they can do. Here is their current contract situation according to Spotrac.
| PLAYER | POS. | 2016-17 |
| Paul George | SF | $18,314,532 |
| Monta Ellis | PG | $10,763,500 |
| George Hill | PG | $8,000,000 |
| Rodney Stuckey | PG | $7,000,000 |
| C.J. Miles | SG | $4,583,450 |
| Lavoy Allen | PF | $4,000,000 |
| Myles Turner | PF | $2,463,840 |
| Glen Robinson III | SG | $1,050,500 |
| Rakeem Christmas | PF | $1,052,342 |
| Joseph Young | PG | $1,052,342 |
| Shayne Whittington | PF | $980,431 |
| Total | $59,260,937 |
Ian Mahinmi, Jordan Hill, Solomon Hill and Ty Lawson are all unrestricted free agents. Glen Robinson and Shayne Whittington are on non-guaranteed contracts. Letting those two go would whittle down the Pacers' salaries to $57.2 million.
With a $92 million salary cap, they'd have around $35 million to spend. That’s more than enough money to land a max contract and then some.
Retain Ian Mahinmi
This thought may or may not be popular among Pacers fans. Myles Turner had a terrific rookie season, outperforming his draft spot considerably. Taken with the 11th pick, he was fifth among rookies in win shares. So there’s certainly an argument for moving him into the starter's role at the 5.
However, Mahinmi also had a more under-the-radar-terrific season. His player efficiency rating jumped 5.8 points, which was the most among players who logged at least 1,000 minutes both last season and this, based on original research.
According to Nate Taylor of IndyStar.com, Mahinmi wants to stay in Indianapolis.
Best of all, his cap hold is only $7.6 million according to RealGM. That means the Pacers can add free agents until the salaries are up to about $84 million, then re-sign Mahinmi for more than that, thereby effectively increasing the amount of money they can spend.
That allows them to add a low-end max contract, a $10-12 million player and keep Mahinmi.
Add Shooting
A new coach can't shoot for the players. According to Basketball-Reference.com, the Pacers' three-point rate (percentage of shots from deep) was 27 percent, 20th in the league. And they were 25th in percentage of shots from three feet or closer, also at 27 percent.
Indiana needs players who can open up the court by forcing defenses to acknowledge them from outside and therefore open up the basket inside. Ideally, that would be a player who could also play power forward, thereby alleviating the pressure on Paul George to man the 4.
Ryan Anderson fills all those boxes and is gettable. He is one of the best shooters available, with 980 made career threes at a 37.7 percent clip. And he fills another need for the Pacers: offensive rebounding. Indy was just 20th last year in snaring their own misses.
Throughout league history, only two players have a three-point-attempt rate over 25 percent and an offensive rebound percentage over 9.0 percent: Kevin Love and Anderson. And Anderson's three-point rate is 50 percent.
He certainly has his flaws on the defensive end, but if the Pacers can keep developing Myles Turner and Mahinmi, those can be covered, especially with Paul George at the 3 to help out.
There are other sensible scenarios which are less likely.
The Pacers could choose a two-way player like Nicolas Batum, but that more or less forces George into the 4, which could strain relationships with him and Bird. And Rich Cho, the Charlotte Hornets GM, has called Batum, “our No. 1 offseason priority” according to the Hornets' official website.
That leaves Anderson as the best realistic free-agent option for the Pacers. He’s not a perfect fit, but he does fill the most important needs.
Settle on a Point Guard
For whatever reason, as good as George Hill has been with the Pacers, they’ve never quite seemed content with him. Hill finished 13th among point guards in real plus-minus wins, according to ESPN.com. That isn’t bad for a guy who wasn’t the primary ball-handler on his team.
There’s nothing vocalized, but it’s easy to infer from his presence in trade talks that the Pacers want more from the position. Most recently, he came up in rumors when Kevin Arnovitz and Brian Windhorst reported for ESPN that the Pacers had “dangled” Hill to the Atlanta Hawks for Jeff Teague.
One thought would be revisiting those talks, as the Hawks seem to have reached a point where they’re going to have to choose between Dennis Schroeder and Teague.
Another thought would be chasing Michael Conley, but it’s hard to see him leaving the Memphis Grizzlies—who have his Bird rights and can offer more money—for a team that doesn’t much improve his chances of winning.
Yet another idea is Jermy Lin, who had a solid season with the Hornets. If the Pacers ink D’Antoni, the “Linsanity” paring would be reunited. And then we could talk about the Lindiana Pacers, too.
Go Big in the Draft
If they get a point guard and power forward in free agency, then the Pacers should have a pretty sound rotation already. Hypothetically, for instance, with Lin, Monta Ellis, George, Anderson and Mahinmi starting, they’d have Hill (provided he isn’t traded or starting over whoever they sign), C.J. Miles, Rodney Stuckey and Turner coming off the bench.
That’s a pretty good starting five and a deep rotation. The only thing it could use is another true big off the bench. Preferably, one who could score.
One player who might be able to help immediately is Domantas Sabonis, son of the legendary Arvydas Sabonis. Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report described some of his strengths:
"Despite lacking explosiveness, he's terrific around the rim, thanks to good hands and finishing instincts. He's crafty down low, where he uses pivots and pump fakes in traffic, plus he shows the ability to convert from tough angles.
In the post, Sabonis does a nice job of sealing off his man and catching the entry pass in scoring position. His moves are fairly basic, but they're effective, and he's developed touch and control on his one-handers and jump hooks, which he can make with either hand.
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Drafting at No. 20, the Pacers aren’t going to have a sure thing sitting there. And Sabonis won’t have the loftiest ceiling, but he will have a high floor and looks to be good enough to at least have an NBA career. He even had five three-point makes last year, so he could evolve into something of a stretch 4.
Conclusion
Ultimately, how well the Pacers play next year depends on their new coach. The Chicago Bulls fired an elite coach last season, replaced him with an offensive-minded one and missed the playoffs. There’s a bit of a cautionary tale here: Bird could be forcing the team to take a step back.
But if he gets the right man for the job and the Pacers can add offense without losing the defensive mindset Vogel cultivated, they could build on what they accomplished in 2015-16 and find themselves back in contention next year.
Stats were provided by Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise stated.
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