Why the Entire NBA Playoffs Could Hinge on Stephen Curry's Ankle
Stephen Curry's mysterious ankle is injecting uncertainty into his team, a season and an ongoing playoff race whose fates have felt predetermined since November.
The latest news is good, with Tuesday's MRI revealing nothing of concern, per Diamond Leung of the Bay Area News Group and Curry telling Marcus Thompson of the Bay Area News Group: "Yeah I'm playing (in Game 3 Thursday). I'll put it like this: I don't see any scenario where I am not playing."
The MRI and Curry's confidence help stabilize the situation a bit, but there's still something strange going on here.
No swelling? Weird.
This, from ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss? Weird...and terrifying.
A frustrating abbreviated warm-up before Game 2, ended by a right-foot pivot, a grimace and a trip back down the tunnel?
Yes, also weird.
Head coach Steve Kerr called it a foot injury, then an ankle, then both, telling reporters after Game 2: "I don't know. Honestly, it's both. I mean I'm not sure I know the difference. It's the back of his foot, it's the ankle, it's something down there."
Something seems amiss, right?
And it won't stop seeming that way unless and until Curry suits up, hits seven or eight threes and looks like the willowy, spring-loaded basketball assassin he's been all season.
So for now, whether Curry plays in Game 3 or not, there are suddenly all these crazy alternate universes to consider—ones that will only exist as long as Curry is something other than certainly healthy and the Warriors are something other than absolute, dead-set, locked-in favorites. The possibilities are vast.
The West Gets Wilder
Vast...within reason.
The Houston Rockets aren't going to beat the Warriors in this first round. They're in a 0-2 hole and proved in Game 2 that they didn't have enough in the chemistry, defense or effort department to beat a watered-down version of the Warriors missing half their Splash.
The Dubs are advancing unless Dwight Howard starts caring, James Harden starts defending and the rest of the Rockets get, I don't know, like, good? So no. Just...no.
But what of the second round? Suppose Curry doesn't play at all against either Chris Paul and the Los Angeles Clippers or Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers. The Blazers smacked the Dubs by a final of 137-105 on Feb. 19 with Curry playing, so we know they have it in them. And the Clips actually played Golden State close for long stretches this season before either surrendering huge comebacks or stumbling at the finish.
Even if Curry plays at some diminished capacity, do the Warriors have enough to beat either prospective second-round opponent (let's be real, it'll be the Clips)? Maybe, but keep in mind the Dubs' uninspiring minus-3.7 net rating this season without Curry on the court. Even if you focus only on, say, the sample of those minutes that came in second quarters (so as to filter out the fourth-quarter garbage time), Golden State is only in the black by the slimmest of margins, posting a second-quarter net rating of plus-0.1 points per 100 possessions without Curry.
That's an instructive number.
It suggests Golden State is essentially a break-even team when Curry doesn't play and the game is still in doubt. Breaking even may not be enough to beat the Clips in a series, which would get Paul to his first ever conference finals against (almost certainly) either the San Antonio Spurs or Oklahoma City Thunder. Does CP3 go a step farther, potentially beating a shaky OKC squad that blew a fourth-quarter lead to the Mavs in Game 2 of that series? Does he knock out the Spurs again after doing it last year?
We're talking a career-defining run for this generation's best point guard.
Spurs and LeBron Get Their Shots
Or, if things don't go that way, maybe we're talking about a Spurs team that finally gets its due.
Chew on this: San Antonio went 67-15 this season, the same record Golden State posted a year ago. It also cranked out an average margin of victory higher than the one last year's Dubs posted—one good enough to rank seventh all time, narrowly behind the 2015-16 Warriors, per Basketball-Reference.com. If Curry is out, hobbled or otherwise can't help the Warriors reassume unquestioned powerhouse status, San Antonio becomes the new juggernaut by default.
Actually, the Spurs are already historically dominant. We would just notice it for once because the Warriors wouldn't be there setting records and soaking up all the adulation.
A sixth ring for Tim Duncan anyone?
But wait!
What about that other conference?
Imagine LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers watching all this from afar. Long viewed as certain Finals participants. In this new alternate universe, they're beyond stoked about the possible weakening (or outright collapse, depending on whether Curry doesn't play or plays hurt) of their most fearsome foe. The smart money has long been on the Cavs losing to whichever team comes out of the West because San Antonio and Oklahoma City were nearly as scary as the Dubs.
That's never really been fair.
The Cavs handled themselves well against San Antonio and OKC this season, splitting their two contests with the Spurs and taking a 2-0 sweep against the Thunder. They even beat the Clippers both times they met. In truth, most of the fatalism surrounding the Cavs and their presumed Finals demise was tied to the Warriors, who beat the Cavs on Christmas and waxed them by 34 on Jan. 18.
If Golden State isn't at full strength, maybe James seizes the moment, channels the 2012-13 version of himself and bulldozes his way to another ring.
He came reasonably close last year with a banged-up roster and a healthy Curry leading the Dubs. That was hard. This might be easier.
All Bets Are Off
We can go even deeper down the rabbit hole.
The Warriors can offer Kevin Durant a max deal this summer if they cut loose some stragglers and time their other signings right. Do they double down on that plan and make the full-on sales pitch to KD if Curry's ankle issue doesn't resolve favorably? Do they take that aggressive approach anyway now that they're getting a small, ill-timed reminder that a house built around one MVP can easily crumble?
Might they want two just to be safe?
And if Durant were ever going to seriously consider joining the Warriors, would he think harder about it (or rule it out entirely) if he couldn't be certain Curry would be there at full strength with him?
We could probably butterfly effect Curry's uncertain health status into multinational nuclear launches, famine and plague if we kept going. He's that big of a deal.
But you get the idea: Everything about this postseason and the future of the league itself hinges on the health of Curry's right ankle. Few scenarios could have forced us to appreciate his role as the league's nucleus more.
Oh! And there's an alternative, significantly less apocalyptic option, too.
Maybe Curry's ankle will be fine, he'll benefit from resting this series, the rest of the Warriors will gain confidence and rhythm playing without him, he'll return to eviscerate whoever is in front of him, the Warriors will coast to a second straight title, Durant will want a piece of the action, and a dynasty the likes of which we haven't seen in the modern era will take shape.
I guess that's also a doomsday scenario...for everyone else.
Follow @gt_hughes on Twitter.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com.
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