Packers vs. Panthers: Full Carolina Game Preview

It perhaps is not surprising that this week’s potential matchup of unbeaten teams didn't come to fruition.  However, most people would have been skeptical that, in Week 9 of the 2015 NFL season, it would be the Carolina Panthers (7-0) who would remain undefeated, while the Green Bay Packers (6-1) would have been handed their first loss.

Even without the unbeaten aspect, this game is by far the best of the week, and it has lots of long-term consequences to it.

First and foremost, it’s a battle for the top seed in the NFC.  The Panthers currently have a one-game lead over the Packers in the race for home-field advantage, but a Green Bay win would not only tie their records, but hand the Packers the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker.  The winner of this game will be the only team left in the NFC with control of its own fate for that top seed, and the loser will need the other team to stumble at some point down the road if it hopes to have the road to the Super Bowl go through Charlotte or Green Bay, respectively.

It’s also a chance for Carolina to prove that it can handle a top team.  While it currently has an NFL-best 11-game regular-season winning streak, none of those opponents had a winning record entering the game during that streak.  The only team they’ve beaten recently with a winning record was the Arizona Cardinals in last year’s playoffs, and they were down to starting their 27th quarterback of the season.  Before that, you have to go back to Week 2 of 2014, when the Panthers beat the 1-0 Detroit Lions, to find a win over a team with a winning record.

The Carolina Panthers may have the best record in the NFC, but they’re still trying to prove to the general public that they belong here.   Since 2010, the Panthers have only won 42 games, tying them for 20th among NFL franchises.  Over the same time period, the Packers have won 68 games, behind only the New England Patriots.  They’re sitting on a six-year playoff streak, tied with the Patriots for the longest active streak and tied with the '93-'98 Packers for the longest streak in team history.

In other words, the Packers have proven they belong in the Super Bowl conversation, so any minor flaws they have are papered over.  A loss to the Broncos last week?  Well, that’s a rough defense they faced.  The fact that they haven’t blown anyone out this season?  Well, a crafty veteran like Aaron Rodgers finds ways to win in clutch situations.  The loss to the Seahawks in the playoffs last season?  A fluke caused by a series of highly improbable plays.

The Panthers, on the other hand, are still hyper-analyzed because they haven’t quite reached that platform of perennial contenders.  The victory over the Seahawks?  The Seahawks aren’t looking so good this season.  The clutch performance to beat the Colts in overtime?  They let Indianapolis get back into the game.  Beating the Cardinals in the playoffs last season?  The Cardinals were starting a guy off the street.   Carolina’s minor flaws are highlighted as pundits try to determine if it is “real” or not.

A victory over the Packers at home would be the most irrefutable evidence to date that the Panthers are real Super Bowl contenders.  You would think a great defense and above-average offense would be enough to have the nation acknowledge them as legitimate, but, to quote another great star from the Charlotte area, to be the man, you have to beat the man.

Last year, the Packers handed the Panthers a 38-17 loss in a game where Randall Cobb torched the secondary for 121 yards and Rodgers threw three touchdown passes before leaving early in a game that was mostly a foregone conclusion by the end of the first quarter.  This week’s matchup should at least be a better game than that one.

Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

Time: 1 p.m. ET

TV: FOX, with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on the call.

Week 8 Results and Recap

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

The Panthers beat the Colts in overtime behind Graham Gano's 52-yard field goal.

On a wet and sloppy Monday night, the Panthers let the Colts get back into what looked to have been a locked-up game, but they held on to win in overtime, 29-26, when Graham Gano kicked a 52-yard field goal for the win.

It looked like the Panthers were going to coast to victory at multiple points in the fourth quarter, holding a 10-point lead with less than five minutes left in the game.  Andrew Luck, who had been bottled up all night long, sprung to life to score 17 fourth-quarter points against a clearly exhausted Panthers defense, and they even took the lead after a field goal in overtime.

However, for the first time in NFL history, a team that was trailing in overtime came back to win the game.  Cam Newton, after struggling early on in the rain and muck, played fantastically toward the end of the game.  He nearly ended the game on a perfect throw to Ted Ginn in overtime that Ginn just couldn’t hold onto.  Instead, he maneuvered the Panthers into field-goal position twice, and Luke Kuechly held onto Luck’s third interception of the game to set up the game-winning field goal.

The Packers, meanwhile, had their first slip-up of the season against perhaps the only team that can boast a more ferocious defense than Carolina's.  They fell to the unbeaten Denver Broncos, 29-10, as Rodgers was held to just 77 yards passing in one of the worst games of his career.  His total was the lowest he’d ever put up in a game with at least 15 attempts, and his 3.5 yards per pass attempt were also a career low.

The Broncos' offense also opted to show up, outgaining the Packers 500 yards to 140 in their first real appearance of the year.  It was Green Bay’s worst performance on both sides of the ball, and perhaps a sign of some weakness going forward—or, perhaps, just an off game against a really good team.

NFC South Standings

Team	Record	Pct.	PF	PA	Streak
Carolina Panthers	7-0	1.000	191	136	W7
Atlanta Falcons	6-2	.750	213	173	L1
New Orleans Saints	4-4	.500	213	234	W3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3-4	.429	163	199	W1

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers gave the Panthers their first lead of more than a game in the division, as they beat the Falcons, 23-20.  The Falcons put up 496 yards of offense but turned the ball over four times and committed 11 penalties to essentially beat themselves, as they botched handoffs and snaps.  They did make up a 17-point deficit in the second half, but Connor Barth’s overtime field goal gave the Buccaneers the win.

Elsewhere in the division, the Saints beat the Giants, 52-49, in the third-highest-scoring game in NFL history, and the closest-ever game with more than 100 combined points scored.  If you love offense and hate defense, it was the best game in NFL history.

After watching the Panthers-Packers game, Carolina fans should stay tuned to see the Falcons take on the 49ers. Another loss would give the Panthers some more breathing room in the divisional race.  The 49ers are arguably the worst team in football and are trying to generate an offensive spark by turning to Blaine Gabbert, arguably the worst quarterback of the past decade.  Suffice it to say I am not convinced that the 49ers can win another football game this season, but the Falcons have shown a tendency to play down to their opponents.

NFC Playoff Picture

Team	Record	Pct.	PF	PA	Streak
Carolina Panthers	7-0	1.000	191	136	W7
Green Bay Packers	6-1	.857	174	130	L1
Arizona Cardinals	6-2	.750	263	153	W2
New York Giants	4-4	.500	215	173	L1
Atlanta Falcons	6-2	.750	213	173	L1
Minnesota Vikings	5-2	.714	147	122	W3

The Panthers remain on top of the NFC, and they have that status this week for the first time without relying on tiebreakers.  They’ll only remain on top of they can beat the Packers, but at least for this week, they’re the kings of the NFC.  A win over the Packers would mean the Panthers could clinch the top seed in the conference with any 7-1 record in the second half of the season, regardless of what Green Bay did.

The 7-0 start has also given the Panthers a serious leg-up on the playoff race—they could, in theory, lose all of their remaining games and still mathematically slip into the playoffs, though that would of course be highly improbable.  No team in NFL history has ever started 7-0 and missed the playoffs, though the 1948 49ers accomplished that feat in the old All-America Football Conference, finishing at 12-2 behind the undefeated Cleveland Browns.  The Panthers will be in the playoffs this season; it’s all a matter of seeding from here on out.

For the record, a 6-3 mark from this point on would guarantee the Panthers a playoff slot, regardless of what happens elsewhere in the league.

News and Notes

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

This week's matchup will have ramifications throughout the NFC.

Packers-Panthers Game Pivotal in the NFC

We mentioned briefly in the opening that this week’s showdown is the biggest game of the week, but the nuts and bolts of why that’s so are worth looking into.

It’s not particularly huge for either team’s playoff chances, though a 6-2 Packers squad would be more likely to miss the playoffs than a 7-1 Panthers team.  It’s a major battle for the top seed in the NFC, with the winner in this game having control of their own fate in the slot and the loser needing the other team to slip up.

But the impact of this game isn’t limited to just the two teams involved.  Both teams, despite being division leaders, are trying to extend a lead over a feisty divisional rival.

The Falcons are just a game-and-a-half behind Carolina with two games remaining against it.  They need to keep winning to keep the division in play, but they’re still very much in control of their own fate in the division.  A Panthers loss, coupled with a Falcons win over San Francisco, would make the NFC South race very interesting coming into the back half of the season.  The Falcons have not been as impressive on the field as the Panthers have, but as long as they can keep the standings close, the Weeks 14 and 16 games between the two franchises could decide who gets a bye week and who has to travel on the road in the first round of the playoffs.

The Packers, of course, have trouble of their own with the Minnesota Vikings just one game behind them.  If the Packers lose, and the Vikings beat the Rams in another pivotal game, the teams would be tied atop the NFC North, with the Vikings already having three wins in the division compared to Green Bay’s one.  This game, then, isn’t just to determine which team is in the lead for the top seed and which is relegated to the two seed; it could be the beginning of one squad falling out of the divisional lead entirely.

Neither team has opened up a divisional lead like the three undefeated AFC teams have.  While the Bengals, Patriots and Broncos look to divide up the top three seeds among themselves, there remains a lot of uncertainty in the NFC.  This game could be a key inflection point for one team’s season.

Panthers Sit Still at the Trade Deadline

The Panthers made one big move this season already, bringing in Jared Allen in a trade earlier this year.  That’s worked out for them so far: He has three sacks, six quarterback hits and three hurries so far as a Panther, per Pro Football Focus.

There were rumors that the Panthers would make another splash before Tuesday’s trade deadline—bringing in Calvin Johnson from the floundering Lions, for example, or Anquan Boldin from the 49ers.  Chat Sports even floated the idea of the Panthers going after either Joe Thomas or Joe Staley to shore up the offensive line.

Instead, per usual, the trade deadline came and went with no one being moved.  With the Panthers sitting at 7-0, they either were satisfied with the team they’re putting on the field or felt that any offer they could have made would have cost too much to bring some extra talent onto the team.

Coach Ron Rivera said he was satisfied with the receiving corps, per the Charlotte Observer:

"

I like the (receiving) group. I think you couple that with our tight end group and then our ability to run the football right now and the threat of our quarterback. Whether he’s going to hand it off, throw it or run it himself. I think all together I like where we are. I like the formula. Obviously, we’d love to have Kelvin out there, Stephen (Hill) out there. Unfortunately we can’t. But I do like the group.

"

The passing offense, even with Newton and Olsen, is still clearly the weakness of the team.  However, you can’t just throw resource after resource at the problem—at this point in the season, the Panthers are who they are.  It’s not like the passing game has been terrible, either—it may be the worst in the division, but it’s just below-average, and not as bad as, say, Philadelphia or Dallas.  It’s more of an area to address this offseason than a problem that needs to be solved right this second.

Investigation Continues on Monday’s Protesters

Before the game got competitive again toward the end, the big story from the second half of Carolina’s game against Indianapolis was the set of protesters rappelling over the lower bowl of the stadium, flying a banner protesting a liquefied natural gas export facility in Cove Point, Maryland.

It remains a mystery how the protesters were able to sneak in such extensive equipment and the banner, considering the stadium’s bag policy not only specifically prohibit banners but also includes NFL-mandated searches on all patrons and their belongings entering the stadium.  They don’t allow footballs, selfie sticks or umbrellas into the stadium, so it’s hard to imagine how a full set of climbing gear was somehow missed.

The director of security, Lance Emory, met with the media on Tuesday to discuss the incident (h/t Black and Blue Review).  He confirmed that the protesters had entered the stadium legitimately, but they do not know how the rappelling equipment entered the stadium, or if it should have triggered the metal detectors.

"

Yeah, we're always concerned about somebody bringing in something that can affect the game. Was it a bomb? No. Thank God that nobody got hurt. Those are our first considerations. Getting the balance right between security that doesn't inconvenience or prevent people from coming to the stadium. We went to a clear bag policy a few years ago and we finally have our fans adjusted to that. We're constantly communicating with them to try to make it better.

"

Fans can expect the procedures to be “re-emphasized” on Sunday, though Emory said that they shouldn’t necessarily expect longer lines to enter the stadium.  It is fortunate that the incident wasn’t worse, from a security perspective.

Injuries

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Josh Norman's strep throat is not considered particularly serious.

Both the Panthers and Packers have some lingering injuries as they get ready for this showdown.  The Panthers might be in slightly worse shape as they’re recovering on a short week, but in terms of sheer numbers, the teams are about even.

Panthers Injuries

Player	Pos.	Injury	Wed. Practice
Shaq Thompson	LB	Knee	Full
Fernando Velasco	G	Shoulder	Limited
Ed Dickson	TE	Hamstring	Limited
Mario Addison	DE	Shoulder	Limited
Dwan Edwards	DT	Ankle	Limited
Ryan Kalil	C	Ankle	None
Andrew Norwell	G	Hamstring	None
Josh Norman	CB	Illness	None

• Shaq Thompson was back at full practice on Wednesday after missing a couple of weeks with a minor MCL injury.  The plan is to see how his knee responds on Thursday, but it’s looking like he’ll reclaim his starting spot from A.J. Klein this week.
• Fernando Velasco started on Monday at center with Ryan Kalil out and played the full way, but he was limited on Wednesday with a minor shoulder injury.  There are no signs that he’ll miss this week, but Chris Scott would be the next man up if he can’t go.  They could also theoretically move Mike Remmers to center and put Daryl Williams in at right tackle.
• Ed Dickson also played his normal allotment of snaps on Monday night but was listed as limited with a hamstring injury—it also does not appear to be overly serious.
• Mario Addison is still limited with the shoulder sprain he suffered against Philadelphia.  While he was back at practice, he says he’s still a week away (h/t Jonathan Jones).  The Panthers remain thin on the defensive line.
• Dwan Edwards has missed the past two games with a high ankle sprain.  It’s a good sign that he was back at practice in any capacity, as he missed all of practice last week.  His status is also questionable for this week.
• Kalil’s ankle injury continues to bother him.  He worked out without a walking boot prior to Monday’s game, but he was wearing the boot when it was decided he could not go and was still wearing it on Wednesday (h/t Joe Person).  The sign is definitely not good.  I would expect Kalil to sit out another day or two, and maybe test the ankle before gametime on Sunday.  Expect Velasco, Scott or Remmers to start at center, however.
• Andrew Norwell had a pretty nasty tweak of his hamstring against Indianapolis on Monday night.  Rivera said that he was concerned about Norwell’s status (h/t Joe Person), so it looks like he won’t go on Sunday.  Amini Silatolu is the likely replacement for him, though Chris Scott was the immediate replacement on Monday night.
• Josh Norman missed practice with strep throat, according to Jonathan Jones of the Charlotte Observer.  He was sent home, likely just to ensure he didn’t spread it to the rest of the team and to get a day to recover.  His status for Sunday is not in doubt.

Packers Injuries

Player	Pos.	Injury	Wed. Practice
Ty Montgomery	WR	Ankle	Limited
Clay Matthews	LB	Ankle/Knee	Limited
Nick Perry	LB	Shoulder/Hand	Limited
Aaron Ripkowski	FB	Illness	None
Sam Shields	CB	Shoulder	None
Quinten Rollins	CB	Neck	None

• Rookie Ty Montgomery missed last week’s game with an ankle sprain he suffered in Week 6 against San Diego.  He didn’t practice last at all last week, so returning to action even in a limited fashion is a positive sign.  According to Packers coach Mike McCarthy, we’re still in “wait and see” mode as to whether or not he’ll suit up.
• Clay Matthews briefly left last week’s game with ankle- and knee-related issues, but he was back at practice this week.  While he was limited, McCarthy indicated they were not concerned about his availability on Sunday.  Rookie Jake Ryan might get the call if Matthews can’t go.
• Nick Perry remains limited after a shoulder injury he suffered against the Rams in Week 5.  He was limited last week, too, but still played, and I’d expect the same to happen this week.
• Rookie fullback Aaron Ripkowski missed practice with a minor illness.  It doesn’t seem serious, and he doesn’t play much behind John Kuhn anyway.
• Sam Shields missed practice after leaving last week’s game with a shoulder injury and is considered day-to-day (per ESPN's Rob Demovsky).  He did not practice, so he’s worth keeping an eye on this week.  Rookie Damarious Randall replaced him once he went down, and safety Micah Hyde replaced Randall in the slot.
• The Packers’ other rookie corner, Quinten Rollins, also left the game last week with a neck injury and did not practice.  With Shields and Rollins both in doubt, the Packers secondary is somewhat shorthanded.

Key Matchups

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

The Packers D offers some tough matchups for the Panthers.

Panthers Offensive Line vs. Packers Defensive Line

It’s a bit broad of a category, to be sure, but the three best Packers defenders are all on the defensive line, and three of the best four Panthers on offense are in the middle of the offensive line.  It should be a strength-versus-strength matchup.

Of course, the Panthers will find themselves a little bit shorthanded this week.  Kalil is still in a walking boot, though it is at least a bit preventative, as he was able to warm up prior to Monday night’s game.  Andrew Norwell looks like he’ll miss Sunday’s game with a bad hamstring as well, as he was not available to practice on Wednesday, per the Black and Blue Review.  That’s the top center in the league and a top-10 offensive guard both at least in doubt for this week’s game.

The Packers boast a good defense, and it starts up front with the trio of Mike Daniels, Datone Jones and B.J. Raji.  Technically, Jones is not a starter—he comes in on pass-rushing downs instead of Letroy Guion or Mike Pennel—but those are the three best defenders the team has, and they go a long way in explaining why the Packers are fourth in the NFL with 23 sacks despite only playing seven games. It may be the linebackers Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews who are recording the sacks, but it’s the 3-4 ends that are soaking up the linemen and allowing the others to get free runs at the quarterback.

The trio have combined for six sacks, eight quarterback hits and 35 quarterback hurries, per Pro Football Focus.  That’s nearly a third of the quarterback pressures the Packers have put up.  Whoever starts in the interior for Carolina—be it Trai Turner, Kalil and Norwell, or Fernando Velasco and Amini Silatolu—will have their hands full handling this line.

QB Cam Newton and RB Jonathan Stewart vs. ILB Clay Matthews

The Panthers love running the ball straight up the gut.  Only the Cincinnati Bengals run more than Carolina’s 15.9 up-the-middle running plays per game, and they’re averaging a robust 4.37 yards per carry with five touchdowns on those plays.  That combination of volume and efficiency has been key to Carolina’s success on the ground this season.

The middle of Green Bay’s rush defense has been relatively stout, giving up just 3.87 yards per carry on runs up the gut—however, they also haven’t been tested very much, having only faced 75 such runs this season.  It’s worth noting that, when Matthews left last week’s game with an ankle injury, the Denver Broncos immediately ran at his replacement, with C.J. Anderson picking up a 28-yard touchdown.

Matthews was limited at practice on Wednesday, but does seem on track to suit up in this one.  He’s definitely the better of Green Bay’s two inside linebackers at stopping the run, ahead of Nate Palmer.  If the Panthers can get past the defensive line and block Matthews out of the play on the second level, they may have success where other teams haven’t—attacking the Packers right up the gut.

CB Josh Norman vs. QB Aaron Rodgers

Of course, stopping the Packers always boils down to dealing with arguably the best quarterback in football in Aaron Rodgers.  Rodgers torched the Panthers last year, completing 19 of 22 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns before taking a seat—he didn’t attempt a single pass in the fourth quarter, as Matt Flynn took over.  Randall Cobb topped 100 yards receiving and Jordy Nelson had 80 more as they picked apart Carolina’s secondary at will.

Of course, starting for the Panthers that day was an almost entirely different secondary.  Antone Cason and Melvin White started at cornerback with Charles Godfrey in the nickel package, and Thomas DeCoud was the free safety.  Only Roman Harper remains in the starting lineup from last year’s matchup.

The biggest change is Josh Norman, who missed the game last year with a concussion.  Rodgers highlighted him as a major difference this time around, saying, “There are a few cornerbacks in the league who are like him.  You have to be aware of where they’re at,” per Max Henson of Panthers.com.

Norman has been the best cover corner in the league this season.  Pro Football Focus charts opposing quarterbacks having just a 25.5 quarterback rating when targeting Norman, by far the best in the league.  When receivers do catch passes against him, they’re averaging just 7.6 yards per reception, again the best total in the league.  He no longer leads the league in interceptions—Charles Woodson has passed him—but that shouldn't take anything away from his stellar season.

Rodgers has shown a willingness to ignore cornerbacks before; he famously targeted Richard Sherman zero times in the season opener last year.  Norman’s presence should at least make Rodgers’ job harder this time around.

X-Factors

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Ted Ginn has only one reception against the Packers in his career.

Panthers X-Factor: WR Ted Ginn

The Packers, as noted, are banged up in the secondary.  Both Sam Shields and Quentin Rollins are at least somewhat in doubt for Sunday.

Green Bay is generally very good against the pass.  The exception, however, has been to top receivers—according to Football Outsiders, they’re allowing 97.1 yards per game to No. 1 receivers this season and are fourth worst in the league at handling them.  Their weakest point?  Deep shots over the middle of the field.

The Panthers have only completed two passes deep over the middle of the field this season—one to Philly Brown for 36 yards and a touchdown against Houston, and an 18-yard reception by Ted Ginn against New Orleans.  Cam Newton has actually thrown more interceptions than completions in that area this season.  It’s not really what the Panthers do best.  Still, a weakness is a weakness, and the Packers have allowed 11 receptions on 14 attempts deep over the middle, with Jeremy Maclin notably torching them for 141 yards in Week 3.  The Panthers might do well unleashing Ginn on some routes down the middle and seeing what happens this week.

Packers X-Factor: S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix has recorded at least four tackles in each of Green Bay’s seven games this season, and he’s generally the last man in coverage on those deep bombs the Packers have done so poorly against.  He’s a large part of the reason the Packers haven’t actually allowed any touchdowns on those shots over the middle; Clinton-Dix has the tackle on four of those 11 receptions.

So, in the battle of Carolina’s stoppable force versus Green Bay’s moveable object, it will be Clinton-Dix’s responsibility to keep the likes of Ginn, Philly Brown or Greg Olsen from breaking a play deep down field.  All three of them have a deep reception for a touchdown this year; it’s Clinton-Dix’s responsibility to ensure that they are stopped before the end zone.  Carolina’s offense can occasionally sputter, so it’s up to the deep secondary to ensure that moderate plays don’t become huge ones.

Prediction: Panthers 27, Packers 24

Mike McGinnis/Getty Images

Jonathan Stewart and the Panthers will keep their unbeaten season intact.

I’ve been thinking of excuses all week to predict Carolina’s first loss.  According to Odds Shark, they are three-point underdogs at home against Green Bay.  They are coming off of a short week and a game where they had to go into overtime to win, so they’ll be less rested than the Packers will be.  They could be missing two of their three great interior linemen.  If you want to go with chalk picks, then there’s plenty of evidence you can find for the Packers winning this game.

I’ve learned my lesson about counting this Panthers team out, though.  Every time I think they’re going to sputter, they step up their game and do enough to get the win.  Cam Newton saves his best for the closing minutes of the game, the ferocious defense makes opposing players look silly and they do just enough to remain in the win column.

If this game were at Lambeau—or even possibly at a neutral site—I might end up picking the Packers.  They have the longer track record of success, they are led by arguably the greatest quarterback in the game and they crushed the Panthers last season.

After its loss to Denver, however, Green Bay doesn’t look quite so untouchable.  It has yet to have a real dominating win this season, despite playing a schedule that included games against San Francisco and Chicago.  It's actually a bad team defending the run, allowing opponents 4.7 yards per carry.  It has a banged-up secondary.  Maybe the Packers are only a really good team, and not a great one.

While ESPN’s readers overwhelmingly think the Panthers will be the next undefeated team to lose, I think they’re underestimating the team.  I’m going to go out on a limb and predict the Panthers pull off the upset.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.