What's Next for Paul Millsap in 2015 NBA Free Agency?

This year, Paul Millsap helped push the Atlanta Hawks to their best season in franchise history. Now he's staring down unrestricted free agency and a choice about what he'd like his next challenge to be.

When Millsap signed a two-year, $19 million contract with the Atlanta Hawks in 2013, it was one of the shocks of the summer. Sports Illustrated’s Ben Golliver even called it, “almost too good to believe.” With the Utah Jazz, Millsap had established himself as one of the best young rebounders in the league and, with a developing mid-range game, seemed like a player who was in line for a higher salary or a longer contract. 

Two years later, that deal is up and Millsap is again out on the open market. During his time in Atlanta, Millsap transformed himself as a player and seems likely to command a much higher price this time around—possibly even a max contract. 

The Hawks would certainly like to bring him back, but the competition for his services should be fierce. Phil Jackson has reportedly been intrigued by Millsap as potential acquisition for the New York Knicks, per Marc Berman of the New York Post. It would be easy to see Millsap working as frontcourt complement to Andre Drummond in Detroit. If this was indeed the last go-around for Manu Ginobili or Tim Duncan, Millsap would be a great addition to the San Antonio Spurs.

There are several other talented big men available this summer—including Tyson Chandler, Greg Monroe, Josh Smith, DeAndre Jordan, Marc Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge. The prevailing wisdom is that many of those players—particularly Jordan, Gasol and Aldridge—will stay where they are. However, if any of them decides to move to a new team, they'll leave a trail of cap space behind them and the dominoes could begin to fall.

The truth is, Millsap's game has developed to the point where he makes sense for almost any team with the cap space to sign him.

Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images

Millsap’s initial NBA niche was carved out by his monstrous effort on the offensive glass. It was essentially with this single skill that he secured himself a place in Utah and built an NBA future.

You can see from the graph above that, over time, offensive rebounding has become a progressively smaller and smaller part of his game. He has become more of an offensive facilitator with a steadily increasing assist percentage. He also became a three-point shooter during his two seasons in Atlanta, and you can see that evolution within his game has been a steady part of his development.

The freewheeling system of ball and player movement the Hawks have used has asked Millsap to continue stretching himself on offense, and he has done so with great success. You can also see how his game has changed spatially by looking at his shot distribution.

Here is his shot chart from the 2012-13 season, his last in Utah: 

Here is his shot chart from last season in Atlanta:

http://austinclemens.com/shotcharts

Although still very efficient, Millsap is much less active around the basket. Much of his mid-range activity has simply been pushed back behind the three-point line. The diversification of his game is not just about where he’s active, but also about the ways in which he is active.

The table below shows Millsap’s performance in different play-type categories from NBA.com. You can see what percentage of his offensive possessions were used on each play type, his average points per possession for each play type and the percentile rank of his performance, comparing him to all other players.

Play Type	% of Poss.	PPP	Percentile Rank
Spot-Up	21.5%	1.01	65.4%
PnR Screener	15.5%	0.98	52.5%
Post-Up	13.1%	0.72	28.8%
Transition	11.2%	1.09	47.6%
Isolation	10.8%	0.90	68.7%

The percentile ranks show that Millsap is not dominant in any one offensive situation, generally ranking close to average or slightly above in efficiency. What’s really amazing is the balance—Millsap was the only player in the league last season who used 10 percent or more of his total offensive possessions in all five of these play types.

This demonstrates just how versatile Millsap is at this point in his career—comfortable in an uptempo offense looking to run in transition but also easily able to slide into a variety of half-court roles. This versatility is one of the things that makes him so intriguing on the open market because he could fit into many different offensive systems.

Millsap is not just an offensive weapon either; he can more than hold his own at the other end of the court. Writing for Rolling Stone in February, Michael Pina talked about Millsap’s subtly fantastic defense:

"

On defense, Millsap is as effective on the low block as he is scampering around the perimeter. He's not long enough to protect the rim, but he's physical, can move bodies down low and has a penchant for blowing up handoffs and pick-and-rolls as they happen. His hands flick like a snake's tongue.

"

According to Basketball-Reference, Millsap just finished his fifth consecutive season with steal and block percentages that were both above 2.0. He has done it six times total in his career, tying him with David Robinson, Dwyane Wade and Josh Smith for ninth on the all-time list.

It’s not just the box score numbers that show his defensive prowess. ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus, which factors in both box score statistics and how a player’s team performs with them on and off the floor, estimates Millsap’s defense to be 2.24 points per 100 possessions better than an average player’s. That would mark him as the 12th-most impactful defensive power forward in the league last season.

With the ability to defend both interior players and wings, Millsap is a perfect prototype for the high-energy, switch-happy defensive scheme the Golden State Warriors have had so much success with this season.

All of this is to say that Millsap is the kind of player who could make a significant impact for many teams in many different situations. The question is whether he’ll want to find a different situation.

After being eliminated by the Cleveland Cavaliers, Millsap spoke with Chris Vivamoore of the Atlanta-Journal Constitution about his free agency, sounding very much like a player who values the structure of success around him:

"

I think looking at different options, looking at this team, looking at what we’ve built thus far, in weight my options I can’t make a decision right now. It’s been a long series, a long year, for me and the team. Let things die down, cool off, relax and think about it a little bit. We are a family. This team is close. It will play a lot into the decision.

"

One potential issue is that maxing out his financial possibilities may mean disrupting that structure, as Zach Lowe explained at Grantland:

"

Millsap’s maximum salary will be about $18.9 million, meaning that if Millsap wants his max —or thinks he can get it from another team—the Hawks will have to dip into their cap room to pay him. If Atlanta goes over the cap, it can sign Millsap to a deal starting at only $16.6 million per season. And if they use $19 million in cap space on Millsap, they would not have enough left over to re-sign [DeMarre] Carroll. Even trading one low-cost player to clear space might not be enough.

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It's a choice that many players have to make in free agency—balancing their own financial interests with what gives them the best opportunity to be successful—and everyone handles it a little bit differently.

There will be many potential suitors for Millsap this offseason. The hopes of the Hawks may rest on Millsap's commitment to their vision and his willingness to sacrifice a little to be a part of it.