How Inevitable 2015 Oakland A's Fire Sale Will Shake Up MLB Landscape

The Oakland A's are totally screwed.

Come trading season, however, that won't be such a bad thing for either them or the rest of Major League Baseball. The "For Sale" sign is going to go up, and everyone will benefit.

The writing has been on the wall for a while now, but the point has been reached where we can treat an A's fire sale as an inevitability. With their 3-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday, the A's dropped their American League-worst record to 17-32.

It would thus take a 15-game winning streak just to get them back to .500, and this A's team doesn't look capable of anything even remotely close to that.

With an offense that ranks ninth in the AL in runs and OPS, the A's aren't much for hitting. And though they've gotten a 3.25 ERA out of their starters, that's marred by an MLB-worst 4.91 bullpen ERA and a defense that, as Owen Watson of FanGraphs noted, is making errors at a cringeworthy pace:

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The Oakland A's are on pace to make 169 errors, which would be the most since 2000: http://t.co/yvccRRlGab #Athletics pic.twitter.com/hxReFESpuY

— Owen Watson (@ohwatson) May 22, 2015"

The bright side is that the A's have welcomed some reinforcements in recent days. They got lefty relief ace Sean Doolittle back from a shoulder problem on Wednesday and human Swiss army knife Ben Zobrist back from knee surgery on Tuesday.

Said manager Bob Melvin, via John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle:

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These are very important guys for us. You lose your No. 3 hitter and closer, it's going to take its toll on you. Not only production-wise should we be better but also psychologically, two of our better players complementing 25 guys, making us feel better about who you are.

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True...but the downside is that the A's are still far from a complete product. Center fielder Coco Crisp, first baseman Ike Davis and pitchers A.J. Griffin, Jarrod Parker, Drew Pomeranz and Eric O'Flaherty remain on the disabled list, and they may soon have company. 

As the Chronicle's Susan Slusser reported, lefty ace Scott Kazmir departed Wednesday's outing against the Tigers with a bad shoulder:

In light of all this, the A's likely don't have a run in them. Hence, the part about them being screwed.

To one degree or another, A's general manager Billy Beane is probably aware of this. And given that there's no GM in baseball more practical than he is, the choice of whether to have a fire sale won't really be a choice at all.

Beyond there being nothing to play for in 2015, Oakland's future hinges more on its ability to rebuild its farm system than on cultivating a winner at the major league level. Its current major league roster is perilously short on long-term building blocks, while its farm system entered the year as a bottom-10 product, according to Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. For a team with limited financial resources like the A's, that's a problem.

So then, let's assume things stay the course, and imagine an A's fire sale.

Bob Levey/Getty Images

According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, rival executives are already looking at the A's as a supplier of trade-deadline goodies. And when the "For Sale" sign goes up, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports says the A's are "almost certain" to deal away their three big free-agents-to-be.

Those would be Kazmir, Zobrist and right-handed reliever Tyler Clippard. When they're put on the market, they're sure to be swarmed immediately.

This is, of course, assuming that Kazmir's tight shoulder doesn't turn out to be anything serious. If it's not, the A's will be shopping half a season's worth of a guy who's quietly been one of baseball's best pitchers over the last two years.

After sitting out the 2012 season, Kazmir made his MLB comeback in 2013 with the Cleveland Indians. That's where a 4.60 first-half ERA turned into a 3.38 second-half ERA, and he went into Wednesday's start with a 3.44 ERA in 41 starts with the A's. 

Span	GS	IP	K/BB	ERA
2nd Half, 2013	13	72.0	4.82	3.38
2014	32	190.1	3.28	3.55
2015	10	58.1	4.17	2.93

All this, and Kazmir's modest $13 million salary will make him an attractive option for pitching-needy teams. The Boston Red Sox could use at least one starter, and there are also starting-pitching needs in the Bronx, Toronto, Los Angeles, Texas, Kansas City and Houston, to name just a few.

As for Zobrist, he's well beyond his 2008-2012 heyday. But he's still an above-average switch-hitter who can hit for some power, run the bases and provide quality defense at several positions. 

That and Zobrist's own modest $7.5 million salary make him a fit for pretty much anyone, but he'd fit best with a team that needs help at second base and/or right field. The arrows point to places like the Bronx (again), the south side of Chicago, Texas and perhaps Pittsburgh and Kansas City if the Pirates grow impatient with Gregory Polanco and the Royals don't get Alex Rios back strong.

Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports

Clippard, meanwhile, is the kind of quality late-inning reliever who's always in demand in the summer. He has a 2.25 ERA in 18 appearances this season and a 2.29 ERA since the start of 2013. And though he's expensive for a reliever at $8.3 million, his new team would only be on the hook for a portion of that.

As for where Clippard could end up, the list of would-be contenders that need relief help particularly badly includes the Blue Jays and Rangers, and clubs like the Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins could use Clippard as a stabilizing force in volatile bullpens.

Apart from these three, there's one name we haven't mentioned yet: Stephen Vogt.

And that's the only mention he's going to get.

No, ESPN.com's Buster Olney isn't wrong to think that Vogt's "market value may never be higher" in a season in which he's become a truly elite player. However, it's also easy to believe Peter Gammons' report at GammonsDaily.com that Beane has no desire to deal Vogt. He's as cheap as can be right now, and he's under control through the 2019 season.

Instead of on Vogt, the focus should be on guys the A's don't control for the long-term future. And on that list, the most notable names are five guys the A's only control through 2016: Josh Reddick, Jesse Chavez, Ike Davis, Sam Fuld and Craig Gentry.

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Reddick would be the biggest prize, as he's an outstanding defensive right fielder who's also hitting a .308 average and .908 OPS. It's easiest to imagine him in a place like Baltimore, where the Orioles badly need to upgrade over Delmon Young in right field.

Chavez would also be a catch. He's posted a 3.19 ERA since the start of 2014 while working as a swingman type. That makes him a fit for any of the teams that could target Kazmir or Clippard, but a close eye should be kept on the Dodgers. Former A's executive Farhan Zaidi is their GM, and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times says Chavez was on his radar over the winter.

Davis, meanwhile, will appeal to any team that needs a first base/designated hitter type with some pop from the left side. The Los Angeles Angels could use one of those, and the St. Louis Cardinals could also be interested with Matt Adams out for the foreseeable future.

This leaves Fuld and Gentry, who are two sides of the same coin. Fuld is a speedy fourth outfielder who bats lefty, and Gentry is a speedy fourth outfielder who bats righty. Either of them could work for teams that need outfield defense and/or some speed, such as the Twins, Cleveland Indians or Seattle Mariners. 

All in all, the A's will have something for everyone when they decide it's time to enter fire-sale mode.

Reinhold Matay/Associated Press

And because that's the case, it's not hard to imagine Oakland's inevitable fire sale as a driving force behind the parity that's evident in baseball now continuing through the end of the season. There might be as many as 25 teams looking to make it to October at the end of the year, and that number may not fall off that far in August and September thanks to the redistribution of A's talent.

The result: perhaps the most action-packed August/September postseason push MLB has ever seen.

Obviously, the A's would be on the outside looking in at all that. But odds are they're going to be watching from a more comfortable seat. With so many pieces to sell and so many buyers to buy them, a fire sale this summer figures to be more profitable than your typical summer fire sale.

Looking at how the A's roster is constructed, you can't help but wonder if this was Beane's plan all along.

Or at the least, his Plan B. Because when you look at the other teams that could be sellers at the deadline—think the Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins—you don't see as many movable assets as you do in Oakland. In the end, that should result in Beane adding a considerable amount of talent.

To be sure, A's fans would no doubt prefer that this season end with a miraculous championship run. But with that very likely not in the cards, a fire sale that could help deliver a championship in the future is certainly the next-best thing.

So, yes. There are worse things in life than being totally screwed.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted/linked.

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