Which NBA Team Is Biggest Threat to Lure DeAndre Jordan in 2015 Free Agency?
DeAndre Jordan is a flight risk in NBA free agency.
The Los Angeles Clippers want to keep the unrestricted free agent, and he may not find greener pastures than his current digs.
But the 26-year-old's trip to the open market is more than a formality. In fact, it could be a venture filled with uncertainty if there's some fire at the source of smoke clouds billowing out of Tinseltown.
Multiple sources told Fox Sports' Bill Reiter that a divide between Jordan and Clippers All-Star point guard Chris Paul grew all season. It's bad enough, sources said, that "it could contribute to Jordan's decision to stay or go as a free agent.
"Sources say Paul's well-known edginess and drive ground on Jordan's nerves for much of the year," Reiter writes. "... Asked if the issues between the two were serious, the source said, 'Oh yeah. [Jordan] might leave. He really might.'"
Timing can be as important in NBA free agency as location is to the real estate world. In Jordan's case, the iron has never been hotter.
After pacing the league in both field-goal percentage and rebounds per game for the second consecutive season—a feat last accomplished by Hall of Famer Wilt Chamberlain—Jordan has positioned himself for a bank-breaking offseason.
And he knows it.
While the free-agent market won't officially open until July, Jordan has unofficially opened himself to suitors of all types. He hasn't pushed the Clippers out of the conversation by any stretch, but he also hasn't masked the fact he's anxious to see what other opportunities exist.
"Doc (Clippers coach Doc Rivers) has been my biggest supporter and the best coach I've ever had," Jordan told USA Today's Sam Amick in March. "The team is great. The guys are great. ... But the free agency process is definitely going to be a fun one."
Just how much fun is Jordan about to have? Nine figures of it, apparently.
If the Clippers want to keep him, "it'll take a five-year, $100 million max contract to re-sign him," according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.
Would L.A. put that much money on the table? Without question. Doc Rivers, Clippers head coach and president of basketball operations, said his team's top offseason priority is re-signing Jordan. "That's obvious," Rivers said, per Dan Woike of the Orange County Register.
L.A. has plenty to offer Jordan.
The contract he could score from the Clips is longer and richer than anyone else can offer. They could lock him up for five years on a $108 million deal. No outside suitor could go above $80.7 million over four seasons.
Rivers has never hesitated to shower Jordan in public praise. Shortly after Rivers arrived in 2013, he anointed Jordan as one of the team's "big three," via ESPN.com's Arash Markazi. Rivers has also lobbied for Jordan to get a look as both an All-Star and the Defensive Player of the Year.
Inside the lines, Jordan has benefited tremendously from playing alongside L.A.'s expert passing duo of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Jordan's offensive range doesn't stretch far beyond the restricted area—nearly 95 percent of his field goals this season were either dunks, layups or tip-ins—but he's still been a double-digit scorer each of the last two years.
And yet, Jordan might still seek out a change of scenery.
"He has longed for a larger stage and role," ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne wrote. "Not making the All-Star team or winning a defensive player of the year award has frustrated him. So does losing in the second round, year after year."
The Clippers can't make Jordan more than a third fiddle behind Paul and Griffin. And in four playoff runs together, this core has yet to advance past the conference semifinals.
Jordan's eye is definitely going to wander; so where is it going to look?
He shouldn't welcome a step back in the standings. In other words, even though the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers all have copious amounts of cap space and an obvious need for rim protection, Jordan shouldn't see any of them as serious suitors.
He also has to find an offensive system that fits his skill set. If the Memphis Grizzlies lose Marc Gasol, they'll need a more well-rounded interior scorer than Jordan. And after finishing this campaign with a minuscule 3.2 assist percentage (358th out of the 366 players who logged at least 500 minutes), he's hardly an ideal centerpiece for the pass-happy San Antonio Spurs.
If Jordan wants out of L.A.—and that's a major question mark—he should have two teams on his radar: the Dallas Mavericks and Portland Trail Blazers.
Portland is an intriguing landing spot.
The Blazers could afford Jordan if they renounce their rights to other free agents, namely Wesley Matthews (who's coming off an Achilles tear) and Robin Lopez (who isn't the same caliber as Jordan). If LaMarcus Aldridge sticks around, Portland could put two All-Stars around Aldridge plus the young talent the Clippers lack.
"Jordan seems like an upgrade for the Blazers defensively and would give them a threat above the rim that they currently don't have on offense," wrote The Columbian's Erik Gundersen. "Alongside Aldridge, Portland's centers rarely get touches and are called upon for screen-setting and diving to the rim."
Jordan's role on the Blazers wouldn't be much different from his current one with the Clippers. But he might feel he has a better chance at a championship in Portland—or at least a similar one that doesn't involve Paul (assuming their relationship has really soured to that extent).
But the Blazers are more of a dark horse in this race. The Mavs are the biggest threat to lure Jordan away.
He grew up in Texas, which (if you don't remember from the last round of free agency) doesn't collect state income tax. He has also "made it clear through back channels that he will be extremely interested in coming to Dallas," as multiple sources told ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon.
The Mavs wouldn't need to jump through any financial hoops to sign Jordan. They only have $28 million on next season's payroll, a number that only climbs to $43.8 million if various team and player options are exercised, via Basketball Insiders.
Dallas obviously might want to sign some of its own free agents—Monta Ellis led the team in scoring and Al-Farouq Aminu emerged as a valuable defensive stopper—but money won't be an issue. If the Mavs were happy with what they were getting from the 32-year-old Tyson Chandler, Jordan would bring a lot of the same things in a younger, more explosive and more productive package.
| Tyson Chandler | 10.3 | 66.6 | 11.5 | 1.2 | 50.9 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 11.5 | 71.0 | 15.0 | 2.2 | 48.5 |
"Chandler does a lot of important things well on the court, but Jordan does those things better," MacMahon wrote. "... If they successfully recruit Jordan, the Mavs could reasonably hope to get a foundation piece for the foreseeable future."
With Father Time catching up to Dirk Nowitzki, the Mavs need a centerpiece. Jordan would be exposed in such a role on most teams, but Dallas could pull this off.
If Ellis sticks around, this offense is going to feature a lot of second and third options. That should mean more of an egalitarian approach. By sharing the wealth on offense and letting Jordan shine on defense, the Mavs could make him feel like the man without actually trying to use him as such.
Would that be a better situation for Jordan than his current one with the Clippers? Most would probably say no, but only he knows what he wants.
If Jordan desires change, he'll have no shortage of different settings to choose from. But none presents a greater threat to L.A. than Dallas.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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