Projecting Cleveland Cavs' Best and Worst First-Round Playoff Matchups
The Cleveland Cavaliers are officially in the 2015 NBA playoffs even with nearly four weeks left in the regular season.
Since Jan. 14, the Cavs (26-7) have secured the most wins and best record in the NBA. Their 46-26 season mark has them slated at No. 2 in the Eastern Conference, eight games behind the Atlanta Hawks.
Cleveland is starting to distance itself from the No. 3 Toronto Raptors, who are just 5-11 in their previous 16 games.
Assuming it stays at No. 2, the list of teams it could face in the first round is wide open. Six franchises are within 2.5 games of the No. 7 seed. While none have a winning record, a few have given the Cavaliers problems this season and could pose a serious threat in the first round.
Others? Well, Cleveland could probably send LeBron James on a week's vacation and still feel comfortable with its chances.
Here's who the Cavs should look forward to playing, or look to avoid, in the East's first round.
Who Cavaliers Could Face in First Round
If the regular season ended today, Cleveland would play host to the 32-37 Miami Heat in the opening round.
This is subject to change on a daily basis, however, given the state of the Eastern Conference. Let's start with the teams that the Cavs will definitely not meet up with in April.
This includes the 53-17 Hawks, who will ultimately claim the No. 1 seed in the East. The Raptors (42-28), Chicago Bulls (42-29) and Washington Wizards (40-30) are all too good to fall to seventh. The New York Knicks (14-56), Philadelphia 76ers (17-52), Orlando Magic (20-50) and Detroit Pistons (26-44) can only dream about Ping-Pong balls at this point.
The 34-36 Milwaukee Bucks, who at one point looked like a lock to finish sixth, are now just 1.5 games in front of the Heat. Milwaukee has dropped its last six contests and got throttled by Cleveland 108-90 on March 22. The Bucks could easily fall back to seventh, or farther, by the time the season wraps up.
Four other teams are right on Miami's heals in the standings. The Charlotte Hornets (30-38) are the newest franchise to rotate into the playoff picture and are currently No. 8 overall in the East. The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers, both 30-39, sit a half-game behind. As unlikely as their postseason chances may be, the 29-39 Brooklyn Nets are just a game behind Charlotte for eighth.
In most years, being 8-10 games below .500 at this point in the season would mean a valuable lottery pick. In the 2015 Eastern Conference, it means you're a serious playoff contender.
Cleveland could realistically face the Bucks, Heat, Hornets, Celtics, Pacers or Nets.
Their preference for who to play, and who to avoid, should be clear.
Best Possible Matchup: Charlotte Hornets
No offense to Michael Jordan, but it's really the Cavaliers who deserve the title as "Hornets Owner" this season.
Not only are the Cavs 3-0 against Jordan's franchise, but they even came away victorious in one game with James resting. Cleveland is just 2-9 without its four-time MVP this season. Its only other victory came in a 55-point performance by Kyrie Irving in a Jan. 28 win over the Portland Trail Blazers.
To be fair, the Hornets are a fine defensive team and have been since Clifford took over at the beginning of the 2013-14 season. They're fourth in points allowed (97.0) this year and seventh in defensive rating (103.1).
For whatever reason, the Cavs have had their number. Cleveland's 105.7 points per game is the most Charlotte has allowed to any opponent it's faced at least three times this season.
The Hornets struggle when it comes to the offensive side of things. They're just 26th in points per game (94.8) and 28th in offensive rating (100.7). Charlotte's 88.3 scoring average is tied with the 14-win Knicks for the lowest by a Cavaliers opponent.
Here's how Cleveland and Charlotte have matched up this season.
Cleveland's season against the Hornets couldn't have gotten off to a better start.
The Cavs began their Dec. 15 matchup by jumping out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead. According to the Elias Sports Bureau (via ESPN.com), the 21-0 lead to start a game is the largest since the Blazers scored the first 22 points against the Celtics in 2004.
Cleveland eventually took down Charlotte 97-88, beginning a dominant three-game series. The Cavaliers also beat the Hornets 91-87 on Jan. 2 (without James) behind 27 points from Kevin Love and again on Jan. 23 by a final score of 129-90. Those 129 points set a Quicken Loans Arena record for regulation scoring, and the Cavs' 75-40 halftime lead was the largest in franchise history.
"They were great," Hornets head coach Steve Clifford said after the game, according to The Associated Press, via ESPN.com. "They're a championship-caliber team, and they played like it."
Cleveland has dominated the Hornets this season and would almost certainly sweep them in a seven-game series.
Worst Possible Matchup: Miami Heat
Wouldn't this be fun?
These two franchises began their seasons facing off in Rio de Janeiro, continued in front of a national TV audience on Christmas Day and could end their encounters with a sure-to-be-entertaining playoff series.
Miami may be far from the franchise that reached the last four NBA Finals, but make no mistake, knocking James and the Cavaliers out of the postseason would be nearly as sweet.
While James' decision to leave the Heat had little to do with Miami and instead focused on his return to Northeast Ohio, it no doubt left a lot of former teammates feeling hurt.
They've channeled this anger toward James into positive play against him. It's been painfully obvious that James doesn't treat this as just any other game, either, as he often presses and looks uncomfortable in three games against Miami.
James has a plus/minus rating of plus-10.6 this season, a number that drops to minus-4.6 against the Heat. His 113 offensive rating falls to 106 while his 106 defensive rating rises to 113.
The Heat are one of only three squads that possesses a winning record against the Cavaliers. Miami is 2-1 overall when facing the Cavs and have showed a newfound confidence and passion every time the two teams face off.
Even without All-Star forward Chris Bosh, the Heat have been playing some good ball after the All-Star break. Miami has gone 10-7 since acquiring former Phoenix Suns point guard Goran Dragic after beginning the season just 22-30. It's tied with Cleveland for the league's third-highest field-goal percentage (46.8) since the break, via NBA.com.
With one more regular-season meeting to go, here's how the Cavs and Heat have stacked up thus far:
Now, Miami is worth fearing even without any extra motivation.
Dwyane Wade is arguably playing his best ball of the season. The 33-year-old guard is averaging 28.3 points on 53.2 percent shooting from the field over his last eight games.
Dragic has given Miami the star point guard it lacked even during its championship runs, chipping in 17.1 points and 5.7 assists in 13 starts.
The rest of the roster is filled with veterans who have appeared in the postseason many times before. Luol Deng, Udonis Haslem, Mario Chalmers and Chris Anderson know how to win and can be valuable contributors on any given night.
All should hold at least a little bit of incentive to beat the Cavs.
"Our guys wanted it very badly tonight," Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said following the Heat's 106-92 win over the Cavaliers on March 16, according to the AP, via ESPN.com. "We understand what the playoff race is right now. It felt like an old Miami Heat game with normal Miami Heat huddles. Guys were screaming at each other—lot of passion in this game—and it was much-needed."
Even with as great as Irving and Love can be, could Cleveland even make it past Miami with a (gulp) mortal James?
Let's hope they don't have to find out.
Greg Swartz has covered the Cleveland Cavaliers and NBA for Bleacher Report since 2010.
All stats provided by Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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