3 Areas That the Oklahoma City Thunder Must Upgrade This Offseason
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and no means to make significant upgrades to the current Oklahoma City Thunder roster, general manager Sam Presti must now shift his attention to the upcoming offseason.
For the most part, Presti has done a very good job of assembling the roster and making the most of draft picks—aside from Josh Huestis. Despite the impressive track record, more work must be done to convince Kevin Durant—the most coveted free agent since 2010's LeBron James—that OKC is his best chance to win a championship.
Presti has constructed the deepest roster in the franchise’s short history, but injuries may prevent the team from reaching its full potential this season. Even if we discount health, however, there are still weak areas the Thunder’s front office can shore up, and the issues discussed below are where Presti should be searching for upgrades.
A Two-Way Shooting Guard
Shooting guard has been a position of weakness for the Thunder since the James Harden trade. Head coach Scott Brooks has to choose between a number of one-way options like Andre Roberson, Dion Waiters and Anthony Morrow (not to mention Jeremy Lamb, who is often a “zero-way” player).
During the regular season, the sheer talent of the roster can compensate for this flaw, but such a glaring shortcoming is accentuated in the playoffs.
Perhaps the upgrade comes in the form of internal development. If Roberson can improve his shooting stroke to connect on around 35 percent of his threes, he’ll be enough of a two-way threat to soak up the majority of the 2-guard minutes. Or maybe this is the offseason where Lamb finally puts it all together and becomes the player Presti traded for in 2012.
In the likely event that none of OKC’s shooting guards improves enough to give the Thunder the two-way presence they need, Presti will need to bring in external help.
Barring any other moves, the Thunder don’t have the cap room to pursue an elite two-way wing like the Chicago Bulls' Jimmy Butler. Even Khris Middleton of the Milwaukee Bucks—an advanced stats darling—is likely to be out of OKC’s price range. There are, however, a few intriguing second-tier options for Presti to pursue.
Potential Free-Agent Targets
Wesley Matthews of the Portland Trail Blazers would have cashed in this summer, but the sad news of his torn Achilles tendon means there’s a chance OKC can sign him at a discount. It’s unlikely, but if teams opt to save their cap space for the free-agent feeding frenzy of 2016, Arron Afflalo of the Blazers and the San Antonio Spurs' Danny Green could be signed using OKC’s mid-level exception and would be tremendous fits for the Thunder.
The more likely outcome is the Thunder signing a less heralded player like Justin Holiday of the Golden State Warriors or the Brooklyn Nets' Alan Anderson. Neither of those signings give OKC a surefire upgrade at SG, but both players have the shooting ability, length and instincts to become quality two-way role players between Durant and Westbrook on the perimeter.
The Thunder don’t need an above-average 2-guard; they just need one that isn’t a liability on one end of the floor.
Backup for Kevin Durant
With Durant in the starting lineup, the Thunder haven’t really needed a quality backup small forward, but it’s time for an upgrade. Durant has been a workhorse during his career, racking up obscene minutes totals until this season:
| 2007-08 | 34.6 | 0.0 | 2,768 |
| 2008-09 | 39.0 | 0.0 | 2,885 |
| 2009-10 | 39.5 | 38.5 | 3,470 |
| 2010-11 | 38.9 | 42.5 | 3,760 |
| 2011-12 | 38.6 | 41.9 | 3,383 |
| 2012-13 | 38.5 | 44.1 | 3,604 |
| 2013-14 | 38.5 | 42.9 | 3,937 |
| 2014-15 | 33.8 | - | 913 |
| CAREER | 38.0 | 42.3 | 24,720 |
The stress fracture in his foot is not a good sign, and even though Durant is only 26 years old, OKC needs to be careful with his playing time in the regular season. The Thunder don’t want any more injuries, and reducing his workload will keep him fresher for the postseason.
To give Durant this kind of rest, they need someone better than Perry Jones or Kyle Singler to back him up. Jones never developed into a reliable player, and Singler has been a disappointment so far. His playing time has decreased, and he’s shooting an abysmal 29 percent from the field since moving to OKC.
His career numbers (42% FG, 38% 3P) suggest he should bounce back at some point, but there are other options around the league who could fill the void.
Potential Free-Agent Targets
Omri Casspi (Sacramento Kings), Jared Dudley (Bucks) and Wesley Johnson (Los Angeles Lakers) all have some experience playing as small-ball 4s, which is a nice trait to help OKC go small without putting Durant through the rigors of guarding power forwards. They’re all quality role players who could play alongside Durant, and they provide interesting combinations of shooting, defense and playmaking.
Presti could go even cheaper by pursuing Joe Ingles, an unspectacular but solid role player for the Utah Jazz. Though an upgrade is necessary, it’s less pressing than shooting guard, so OKC can afford to be frugal here.
Head Coach
Coach Brooks draws a ton of criticism, but he has many good qualities. He’s built the Thunder into an elite defensive team over the years, and his players always play hard for him.
Brooks has also improved over the years, becoming more flexible with his lineups and quicker to make in-game adjustments. His players seem to love him, too, as Durant and Westbrook are quick to come to his defense and never throw him under the bus.
But OKC can learn a lot from the rise of the Golden State Warriors. They had a beloved head coach in Mark Jackson who had built a strong defense and had the complete support of his players. But Jackson’s offense wasn’t creative, he wasn’t maximizing the entire roster and he was holding the team back.
The same can be said for Coach Brooks. It’s fine to make isolation the backbone of your offense when Durant and Westbrook are your cogs, but there need to be other things to fall back on when a simple iso isn’t doing the trick.
Roberson’s poor outside shooting is going to muck up spacing regardless of the offensive system, but it would be less of a problem if there were more cutting, ball movement and off-ball screening to keep defenses guessing.
Brooks is by no means a bad coach, but he’s not a great one either. Of the teams in the Western Conference playoff hunt, only the Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans have coaches who aren’t clearly better than Brooks. Coaching matters in the playoffs, and Brooks puts OKC at a disadvantage in almost every series in the West.
Maybe the Thunder can win it all with Brooks. They have been cursed by injury misfortune and bad luck, after all. But if Presti wants to maximize his championship chances, a coaching change is required. It’s a huge gamble to make with only one guaranteed year of Durant left, but head coach is the biggest basketball-related factor that could push Durant out of OKC.
Potential Targets
It’s extremely easy to point out Coach Brooks as the Thunder’s biggest weakness. It’s far more difficult to find a suitable alternative, and that’s the reason Brooks still has his job. OKC has to be a legitimate contender next season, so it can’t afford to make a change and actually get worse in the coaching department.
As a result, hiring a coach with NBA experience is the most palatable option, but there aren’t many attractive figures out there matching that criteria. Alvin Gentry is the most appealing option if he can be pried away from the Golden State bench.
After Gentry, the most intriguing candidates don’t have experience running an NBA team. Kevin Ollie has been successful at UConn and already has the respect of the Thunder team thanks to his playing days in OKC, according to Jenni Carlson of The Oklahoman. In her article, Carlson quotes both of OKC’s stars talking about the impact Ollie had on the team.
From Westbrook:
"Kevin [Ollie]’s one of the greatest guys I know in this league. … He’s a great role model. He did a great job of coming in here and helping us become leaders, myself and Kevin [Durant]. Just taught us a lot of things. Regardless of what was going on, he kept a positive attitude and taught us to do the same.
"
From Durant:
"Kevin Ollie, he was a game-changer for us. He changed the whole culture, I think. He might not say it, but I think he changed the whole culture in Oklahoma City. His mindset, his professionalism every single day. And we all watched that. We all wanted to be like that. …Everybody that comes through now, there’s a standard you’ve got to live up to as a Thunder player. And that started with Kevin Ollie.
"
Virginia coach Tony Bennett and Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg are other candidates from the collegiate ranks with playing experience in the NBA. Both have been mentioned with Ollie over the last few summers as possible head candidates.
Then there’s the pool of NBA assistants who are ready to make the leap, including guys like Jim Boylen (San Antonio Spurs) and Tyronn Lue (Cleveland Cavaliers) in addition to the aforementioned Gentry.
Picking the right coach will be a monumental challenge for Presti, but it’s the best way to maximize OKC’s championship chances—which is Presti’s route to retaining the services of Kevin Durant.
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