Dallas Mavericks Are Most Vulnerable Team in Western Conference Playoff Picture
The Dallas Mavericks should thank their lucky stars—no, not the hockey Stars, as they're at the very bottom of the NHL's Central Division—that they're still a few games up on the two teams duking it out for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.
But while the Oklahoma City Thunder and New Orleans Pelicans exchange haymakers, it's the team currently sitting at No. 7 that should be feeling like the most vulnerable squad fighting for playoff positioning in the NBA's tougher half.
Heading into a Friday night showdown with the Los Angeles Clippers, the Mavs have dropped five of their last seven games, spurring a new arrival into a malcontent state. Amar'e Stoudemire expected to compete for a title when left the reeling New York Knicks in favor of Dallas, but he's a bit frustrated, as he explained to ESPNDallas.com's Tim MacMahon after a blowout loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers:
"I came here to win, and we're [4 ½] games out of being out of the playoffs, which is unacceptable. This is something we can't accept. We've got to find a way to refocus. We've got to key into the details of the game of basketball.
We can't cheat the game. We can't screw around in shootarounds and practices and joke around all the time and figure we're going to win games. This is the pros. It's the highest level of basketball. We've got to act that way.
"
But if Stoudemire expected to join the Mavericks in media res and have a shot at a championship right away, he was misled. This is a team with a number of fundamental flaws, and now it's the only one of the nine squads in the Western playoff picture that doesn't actually feel like it's capable of advancing in the postseason.
The Pelicans may not have ring-winning upside, but it sure seems like they can hang with any given team when playing at full strength. Anthony Davis' MVP campaign may yet have some legs now that the bayou residents are back in the hunt for No. 8, and let's not forget about the eventual return of Jrue Holiday.
When Kevin Durant is healthy, the Thunder are unquestionably contenders. The Spurs? Even after their heartbreaking overtime loss to the Kyrie Irvings Cavaliers, writing them off nonsensically ignores history—both from years past and the last few weeks. Beyond that, we have the five front-running teams, and doubting them is foolish as well.
But the Mavericks? They're far more vulnerable than anyone within the organization would care to admit.
Struggling Individuals
Let's start with the man who has served as the face of the franchise for so long—Dirk Nowitzki.
The 36-year-old German power forward has routinely defied Father Time during the more recent portions of his career, but not even he has been able to stave off the advances of old age recently. Since the All-Star break, Nowitzki is averaging only 12.6 points, 5.7 rebounds and 1.3 assists. And it gets worse, as he's shooting just 39.6 percent from the field, 32.4 percent from beyond the arc and 85 percent at the stripe.
But as head coach Rick Carlisle explained after the Cleveland loss on Tuesday night, per Dwain Price of the Star-Telegram, "It's not a Dirk thing, it's a Mavericks thing. You can't go out and perform the way we did the last three quarters and point to Dirk."
He's right.
When Nowitzki took his preseason pay cut and signed a three-year deal for $25 million, he was supposed to be doing so in order to save his franchise money, not because he'd fail to play like an eight-figure player down the stretch. But, as Carlisle suggests, this is a Mavericks thing. There are more culprits here than the future Hall of Famer who's suddenly gone ice cold.
Since that same All-Star break, Monta Ellis has averaged 16.3 points, 2.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists while hitting his field goals at a 38.9 percent clip and going quite a long time between successful three-point tries.
One star losing his touch is survivable. Two is disastrous, especially with Rajon Rondo failing to sync next to his new teammates. And while Chandler Parsons is back in the lineup after missing seven games, there's no guarantee his presence will pull the bigger names out of their prolonged slumps.
Maybe it does, though. Unfortunately, even if that's the case, the Mavericks offense has still been a mess ever since a certain point guard entered into the equation.
A Lost Identity
Before shipping off some of their depth to the Boston Celtics for Rondo's services, the Mavericks had a clear-cut identity. They were an offensive powerhouse scoring at historic levels, and that's not the least bit hyperbolic.
Prior to the former Beantown floor general suiting up in blue for the first time on Dec. 20, Dallas was scoring 116.8 points per 100 possessions. Compared to the current league-average offensive rating of 105.4, they'd have an adjusted offensive efficiency of 110.8.
Throughout all of NBA history, the top adjusted offensive efficiency belongs to the 2003-04 Mavericks, with a mark of 108.94. Yes, that means the pre-Rondo Mavs were playing like the best offense ever.
Naturally, it was going to be hard to sustain that. But adding a ball-dominant point guard who couldn't shoot to save his life into the mix was never a good idea. Not if Rondo was going to take touches away from Nowitzki and Ellis—and that was assuming he wouldn't have any clashes with Carlisle and the coaching staff.
However, you've heard this before. Plenty have already looked at this, but it's actually gotten even worse recently.
Dallas has slipped all the way down to No. 5 in offensive rating, trailing the Los Angles Clippers, Cavaliers, Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors. That's still an elite mark, as the team is scoring 109.4 points per 100 possessions, but that's indicative of more than a slight decline since Dec. 20.
It's akin to a precipitous drop-off from the unimaginable heights it was previously soaring at.
Since the Rondo acquisition, Dallas has posted an offensive rating of just 105.6. Were that number maintained throughout the season, it would leave the Mavericks ranked just ahead of the Utah Jazz and serving as a caboose for the top half of the Association's point-producing leaderboard. And that is most certainly not elite.
Of course, the acquisition of the former All-Star was supposed to improve the defense, and that's what's been most problematic.
It did. Rondo has certainly made this team more adept at shutting down the opposition. But not nearly to the extent that is necessary and especially not in recent days, as the offense and defense have both slipped to lower levels.
That's never what you want to see.
The offense is continuing to dip lower and lower, and it's now putting up only double-digit points per 100 possessions. For perspective, the only team that has failed to hit 100 this season would be the offensively inept Philadelphia 76ers.
But that's not the most disconcerting part.
Dallas has forgotten how to play defense, just hemorrhaging points over the last few weeks. That's led to a negative net rating, which isn't a good thing for any team. And along those lines, here's one more infographic for your viewing pleasure (or displeasure, if you're from the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex):
As you click through the different portions of the season, make sure you track where the Mavericks show up among the league's 10 worst net ratings. It won't be pretty by the time you get to the end.
So, where has the identity gone?
The dominant offense disappeared long ago, but that was always supposed to happen—to some extent, at least. The Mavericks were apparently willing to sacrifice some of their point-scoring dominance so that they could be more balanced. But not like this.
Now, the offensive excellence is gone, and so too is the defensive improvement. They're balanced, but only because they've been so ineffective on both ends of the floor.
And if they don't improve, the Mavericks aren't just non-contenders; they're a lottery team.
How Bad Can it Get?
Let's assume that recent form is the best indicator of how a team will play throughout the rest of the season.
If that's the case, we can use data from each squad's last 10 games to project how it will finish the year, relying on my FATS (factor adjusted team similarities) model (based on historical similarities and explained in full here). The Mavericks might have a head start on the Thunder and Pelicans, but does that actually mean they're going to make the playoffs?
As you click through the following graphic, you can see 1) each team's current winning percentage, 2) each team's form over the last 10 games, presented in how they'd fare at this level for a full 82-game season and then 3) how many wins they'll finish with, based on using the recent form over the remainder of the stretch run:
Here's the bad news for the Mavericks.
To get to 46 wins, I had to round up for Dallas and down for Oklahoma City. And that means that if recent form holds true, the Mavericks won't be playing in even a single playoff game, much less getting into the league's second season and serving as sacrificial fodder for a Western powerhouse in a short first-round series.
Can this change? Of course, especially if the injury imp stops plaguing Dallas and allows for more cohesiveness on the court. That, as Jean-Jacques Taylor argues on an ESPNDallas.com panel, has been the team's top issue recently:
"The Mavs' biggest problem is they haven't had their entire team together in weeks. For a team that relies on ball movement and chemistry to hide their flaws, the Mavs must spend time together on the court, so they play much more instinctively than they have in the past few weeks. Every team has injuries and goes through bad stretches, but it's magnified when a team like the Mavs is working in new players and they need time to jell.
"
Problem is, time isn't exactly on Dallas' side.
We're down to the stretch run of the season, with only the Friday night battle against the Clippers and another 15 games left on the schedule. Making matters worse, it's a killer slate for the team struggling to stay in the playoff picture.
Of those games, only eight come against franchises not currently slated to advance past the regular season, two of which feature matchups against Russell Westbrook.
Next are the mediocre Orlando Magic. There's a home-and-away series with the Phoenix Suns, who are by no means a pushover. Then, near the very end of the year, the Mavs go on the road for three games in four nights against the Los Angeles Lakers, Utah Jazz (who have been playoff-worthy in recent weeks) and Denver Nuggets (who have been much better under interim head coach Melvin Hunt).
With only two softballs on the schedule, that's not exactly conducive to building chemistry. And that, in turn, is a virtual death knell for Dallas' hopes in 2014-15.
So is this the most vulnerable potential playoff squad in the West? Well, here's a better question.
Who else is even close to earning that ignominious title?
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current heading into March 13's games.
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