Best and Worst First-Round Matchups for Each 2015 NBA Title Contender
The pool of NBA championship contenders looks deep enough for the league to consider hiring a lifeguard.
The last three seeds in the Western Conference playoff picture are held by teams that participated in at least one of the last four NBA Finals. The Eastern Conference crowd isn't nearly as thick, but it still houses three clubs that look capable of navigating a title run.
With so much firepower at the top, every path to the championship podium looks treacherous. But some will be far more challenging than others depending on how the final playoff pairings shape up.
There are potential first-round dream matchups and nightmare draws for every contender in the field. Based on past performances and comparisons of strengths and weaknesses, we have uncovered which opponent each contender hopes to see in the opening round—and which club could send it packing for an early vacation.
Atlanta Hawks
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Dream Matchup: Charlotte Hornets
Technically, the season series between the Hornets and Atlanta Hawks is tied at one game apiece. But when Charlotte defeated Atlanta on Nov. 7, the Hawks' record fell to 1-3. They are 47-9 since and in no way resemble the team the Hornets needed two overtimes to defeat.
Atlanta's potent offense would put Charlotte's underwhelming attack in a race it couldn't win. The Hawks average 102.6 points per game on 46.6 percent shooting. For the Hornets, those numbers are only 94.9 and 42.6, respectively.
When these clubs last collided on Nov. 29, Atlanta rolled to a 105-75 victory. A first-round meeting might feel similarly lopsided.
Nightmare Draw: Boston Celtics
Only six teams in the East have defeated the Hawks. Only two have done it since the calendar changed—the Toronto Raptors, who won't fall far enough to face Atlanta in the opening round, and the hard-charging Celtics, who are quickly finding the recipe for becoming a pesky playoff opponent.
Boston dealt Atlanta an 89-88 loss before the All-Star break, then strengthened its roster by snagging scoring guard Isaiah Thomas at the trade deadline. The Celtics are 8-5 since Feb. 3 and could have a better record if they hadn't blown a 26-point lead against the Golden State Warriors on March 1.
"They present a tough matchup because they can go small," Stephen Curry said, per Steve Bulpett of the Boston Herald. "...When you have that many guys on the wing able to spread the floor, they're tough."
The Hawks can spread most teams thin, but the Celtics' bigs are comfortable playing away from the basket. Atlanta will be a heavy favorite in any first-round matchup, but Boston would present the biggest obstacle of any possible opponent.
Chicago Bulls
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Dream Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks
The Chicago Bulls haven't been the stone wall that coach Tom Thibodeau typically oversees (12th in defensive efficiency), but they could live with those defensive cracks in this matchup.
Offense has been an issue for Milwaukee all season (23rd in efficiency), and the problem has grown worse since the Bucks dealt their leading scorer Brandon Knight at the trade deadline. They have averaged a league-worst 88.3 points per game since the All-Star break, clearing the century mark only once in eight tries.
That's actually a higher scoring average than the 81.3 points posted by the Bucks in their three meetings with the Bulls, all comfortable wins for the Windy City.
Nightmare Draw: Indiana Pacers
The Bulls like to work their offense from the inside out.
Derrick Rose and Aaron Brooks are in constant attack mode off the dribble. Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson are bullies on the low block. Jimmy Butler and Tony Snell can punish a distracted defense with timely cuts to the basket.
Chicago averages 31 restricted-area shots per game, the seventh-highest average in the league. That could be an issue against a Pacers team that holds opponents to the fourth-lowest shooting percentage in that zone (55.8 percent). Roy Hibbert remains one of the league's best rim protectors, and his backup, Ian Mahinmi, doesn't check in too far behind.
The Pacers, who have won nine of their last 11 games and could be getting All-Star swingman Paul George back shortly, will be a tough out for any team. But they're an especially problematic opponent for a team as reliant on interior offense as Chicago.
Cleveland Cavaliers
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Dream Matchup: Washington Wizards
The Cleveland Cavaliers could continue climbing the standings and have the chance to pick off a bottom feeder, but they might be fine with where they're at. Their current playoff post would pit them against a Wizards team they have shredded by an average of 32 points in their last two meetings.
The Wizards don't have the offensive weapons to break down a Cavs defense that ranks seventh in efficiency since Feb. 1.
Timofey Mozgov's presence in the middle helps limit the damage done by John Wall's dribble penetration game. Nene can win his head-to-head battle with Kevin Love, but Cleveland can afford to bring help since Washington's accurate three-point attack (fifth in percentage) is not an active one (27th in attempts).
Washington has been reeling for a while (3-12 over its last 15 games), and its old rival from Cleveland could be ready to deal the knockout blow.
Nightmare Draw: Indiana Pacers
New Eastern Conference juggernaut, same potential spoiler.
The Pacers and Hawks are the East's only teams with winning records against the Cavs this season. While Indiana avoided LeBron James and Kyrie Irving in its most recent win, both played over 38 minutes during the Pacers' 103-99 win over the Cavs on Feb. 6. Indiana limited James to 25 points on 10-of-21 shooting and forced him to commit seven turnovers.
And the Pacers didn't even have George, who initially burst onto the national scene after holding court with the King during the 2013 Eastern Conference Finals. With George on James, George Hill on Irving and Hibbert backing both up, the Pacers can force the Cavs to find someone else to beat them.
If Cleveland has to rely on the perimeter shooting of Love, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert, Indiana could have a puncher's chance to score a shocking upset.
Dallas Mavericks
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Dream Matchup: Memphis Grizzlies
How brutal is the West? The dream matchup for the Dallas Mavericks is a Grizzlies team with a .717 winning percentage and a 2-1 record against them this season.
But if Dallas draws a top-four team, Memphis might be the one it wants.
On paper, the Mavericks are built to slow down the Grizzlies' offense. Rajon Rondo has the length and athleticism to harass Mike Conley, and Tyson Chandler has the size and smarts to make Marc Gasol work. The other three spots would be tougher to cover, but the Monta Ellis-Chandler Parsons-Dirk Nowitzki trio packs more of an offensive punch than the Courtney Lee-Jeff Green-Zach Randolph combo.
It would be a close series in terms of talent, and Rick Carlisle's coaching genius might help push the Mavs over the top.
Nightmare Draw: Houston Rockets
The Rockets hold the same 2-1 record against the Mavericks as the Grizzlies, but Houston is more adept at taking away Dallas' preferred options.
The Mavs finish more of their offensive plays with pick-and-roll ball-handlers than any team in the league (21.8 percent), and only two clubs lean more heavily on spot-up shooters (22.8 percent). Containing both of those looks happen to be among Houston's specialties. The Rockets allow the fifth-fewest points per possession to pick-and-roll ball-handlers and second-fewest to spot-up shooters.
With versatile, athletic defenders all over the floor, the Rockets have jumped to sixth in defensive efficiency this season. And assuming they get Dwight Howard back, they'd have a big body to occupy Chandler while the league's leading scorer, James Harden, attacks at will.
Golden State Warriors
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Dream Matchup: Houston Rockets
On paper, there isn't a ton of separation between the Rockets and Golden State Warriors. The latter has the NBA's second-best winning percentage and highest net efficiency rating. The former ranks fifth and eighth in those categories, respectively.
But if their head-to-head tilts are to be trusted, there's no less than a canyon between them. The Warriors swept their four-game season series with the Rockets, winning each round by a double-digit margin.
Not bad for a team that Harden declared "ain't even that good" during a pregame huddle before their third meeting of the season. The Dubs took those words to heart, proudly repeating them after ripping off a worse-than-it-sounds 126-113 win in their final tussle of the regular season.
"You saw it, you don't got Twitter? You got Instagram? So I'm sure you saw it, right?" Warriors forward Draymond Green said, per ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss. "We not that good."
The Warriors are that good, and against the Rockets they'd be angry as well. That would be a lethal mix against a team they have handled with ease all season.
Nightmare Draw: San Antonio Spurs
The ageless Spurs seem to have a magic spell over the entire NBA, but it's been particularly effective against the Dubs.
"Since the Warriors last won a regular-season road game in San Antonio on Feb. 14, 1997, the Spurs have run up a 55-10 record against Golden State for a winning percentage of .846, their best mark against any team during that span," Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes wrote prior to these teams' meeting on Feb. 20.
The Warriors scored an 11-point victory that night, but a regular-season win didn't likely break this decades-long curse. The Spurs play the same selfless style the Warriors have adopted this year, but the new addition to the Bay Area has been an Alamo City fixture for a long time. That familiarity could be San Antonio's key to upsetting a younger, more talented team.
Houston Rockets
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Dream Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder will be a frightening first-round opponent for any team, but the Rockets have reasons to like their odds in that matchup.
Patrick Beverley can't match Russell Westbrook's explosive athleticism, but he's right there with the perennial All-Star in toughness and tenacity. Trevor Ariza has the physical tools and mental makeup to stay in the fight no matter how Kevin Durant is showing on the stat sheet. Durant dropped 24 points on 66.7 percent shooting the last time these teams locked horns, but Ariza limited KD to only 12 shots in 40-plus minutes.
When Ariza needs a breather, Houston has other lanky, active defenders to call upon, like Corey Brewer and Josh Smith. Once OKC gets past the first line of defense, it still needs to deal with Howard and Terrence Jones at the rim (a duo that has combined for 3.3 blocks per game).
The Thunder can throw Andre Roberson at Harden, but doing so requires keeping an offensive threat like Dion Waiters, Anthony Morrow or Kyle Singler on the bench. It's hard enough scoring against Houston as it is, and even a team with Durant and Westbrook couldn't survive long stretches of playing four-on-five against it.
Nightmare Draw: Golden State Warriors
The Warriors' dominance over the Rockets isn't likely to go away.
Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala can each handle the Harden assignment on his own. The same goes for Andrew Bogut battling Howard on the low block. That means the Dubs' other defenders can stay glued on shooters or jump into passing lanes and kick-start their potent transition attack.
Golden State's willingness to share the basketball can help negate Houston's strong individual defenders. The quality of shots each team is able to find could look dramatically different over the course of a seven-game series. The Warriors have the NBA's best field-goal percentage on the season, while the Rockets check in at 22nd.
Los Angeles Clippers
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Dream Matchup: Dallas Mavericks
The Los Angeles Clippers have a MVP candidate running point in Chris Paul. The Mavericks have a declining point guard in Rajon Rondo, who holds a below-average 13.4 player efficiency rating and recently served a one-game suspension after exchanging words with his head coach.
That position battle alone could decide the series and, if it does, it'd be an easy win for the Clippers.
With the tactical floor general Paul running the show, Los Angeles has had more offensive success with pick-and-roll ball-handlers than any team in the league (0.89 points per possession). Dallas, meanwhile, has been the league's ninth-worst defense against that play type.
As a scorer or setup man, Paul could pick apart the Mavs' 14th-ranked defense. And it's not like Dallas could afford to bring help on Paul when the ground-bound Dirk Nowitzki would be looking for assistance in containing the high-flying Blake Griffin.
The Clippers' top-ranked offense is going to be a problem for some team, and the Mavs don't have enough pieces to slow it down.
Nightmare Draw: Memphis Grizzlies
The Clippers love to run but struggle when they can't control the pace. They are 35-11 when they score at least 100 points and only 5-11 when they don't.
They have played the Grizzlies three times this season—and couldn't crack the century mark in any of those outings.
Memphis can dictate the action by slowing down the game with a bruising interior attack that L.A. lacks the pieces to stop. DeAndre Jordan is a good shot-blocker but only average as a rim protector. Griffin doesn't add much in either area.
A methodical Memphis attack could lead to a lot of sleepless nights in the City of Angels.
Memphis Grizzlies
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Dream Matchup: Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers have strengthened their championship odds by improving their two-way balance and bolstering their bench. But Portland still doesn't have the defenders or the depth to survive a grit-and-grind series with Memphis.
The Grizzlies have taken all three of their meetings with the Blazers this season, reaching triple-digits in two of those contests and never allowing Portland to hit that mark. The Blazers haven't shot above 40.2 percent against the Grizzlies this season, and All-Star point guard Damian Lillard has been reduced to a volume scorer (20.3 points on 39 percent shooting).
After adding Jeff Green, Memphis has put five scoring threats in its starting lineup. Portland used to have that balance, but Nicolas Batum's season-long struggles (.385/.281 shooting) took that card out of the Blazers' hand.
Factor in the numbers game that Memphis would win off the bench, and the Grizzlies would have enough to grind out a series win.
Nightmare Draw: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Grizzlies continue to evolve at the offensive end, but they can still hit the occasional lull. A big part of that problem is a team-wide inability to shoot the three ball with consistency. The Grizzlies rank just 28th in makes and 21st in accuracy.
If their offense hits a dry spell against the Thunder, it could easily lead to an early exit. OKC gets 52.4 points per game from Durant and Westbrook alone. That's more than Conley, Gasol and Randolph contribute combined (51.1).
Memphis has the worst isolation defense of any playoff team out West. Durant has the best scoring rate of any player with 50-plus isolations, and Westbrook ranks inside the league's 64th percentile (minimum 10 possessions).
The Thunder have expanded their offensive talent base through the development of Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams, plus the acquisitions of Enes Kanter, D.J. Augustin and Kyle Singler. As good as Memphis' defense is, that's a ton of weapons to contain.
The Grizzlies might have the defenders to do it, but if the series became a shootout, it would be tough to like their chances.
Oklahoma City Thunder
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Dream Matchup: Los Angeles Clippers
This current Clippers team seems less-equipped to handle Durant than last season's version. At least Matt Barnes was a year younger then, and coach Doc Rivers had Jared Dudley available if he ever wanted to use him.
But none of that mattered when the Clippers and Thunder collided in the 2014 Western Conference semifinals. Durant blitzed the Clips for 33.2 points on 47 percent shooting and 5.3 assists a night, and the Thunder rolled to a six-game series win.
The Clippers have even less to throw at Durant this time around, never mind the new and improved Russell Westbrook (31.8 points, 9.5 assists and 9.0 rebounds over his last 15 games). Those two alone can exploit an L.A. defense that ranks 21st in field-goal percentage against within five feet.
While L.A. failed to bolster its undermanned bench at the deadline, OKC fortified its reserve ranks. For every Clippers star, the Thunder have a younger and brighter one, plus a deep roster behind them.
Nightmare Draw: Houston Rockets
Like all non-bearded things in Space City this season, the potential problems the Rockets can give the Thunder start at the defensive end.
Houston has enough quality defenders to limit Oklahoma City's biggest strengths. The Thunder deploy a dominant isolation offense, but the Rockets have been one of the league's best defenses against that attack.
If Houston can silence OKC's top guns, that offense can fall apart quickly. That's how the Rockets sprinted out to a 40-18 first-quarter lead during their 112-101 win over the Thunder on Jan. 15.
"They are a very good team, KD and Russ (Westbrook) are capable of going on a run by themselves, and so we put emphasis on it to kind of slow them down and try to make other players make plays," Harden told reporters after the game.
The Rockets can come as close as any Western Conference team to matching the Thunder's length and athleticism. Houston's opportunistic defense also presents obvious issues for an offense that can get careless with the basketball.
Portland Trail Blazers
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Dream Matchup: San Antonio Spurs
The Blazers looked overwhelmed in their five-game series loss to the Spurs in last season's conference semis. But neither team appears now as they did then.
Portland is significantly improved at the defensive end and still a threat to erupt on the opposite end. San Antonio is, in Tim Duncan's words, "a work in progress," per Dan McCarney of the San Antonio Express-News.
The Spurs look old, and not in the way this team always looks old. They've been battered by the injury bug, and neither Tony Parker nor Kawhi Leonard has played close to the level fans have come to expect.
San Antonio has the seventh-worst defense against the three, and Portland averages the third-most triples in the league. If that statistic gets the Spurs' knees wobbling, the thought of a hobbled Parker chasing around a lightning-quick Lillard is enough to put the defending champs on the canvas.
Nightmare Draw: Los Angeles Clippers
Truth be told, a lot of teams could scare the Blazers. They are 3-8 against the West's top six.
But L.A. gets the nod for the point guard lessons that Paul would give—and has given—to Lillard. In their last five meetings, Paul has averaged 27 points on 50.5 percent shooting and 12.2 assists against 2.4 turnovers. Lillard has only gone for 16 points on 40.3 percent shooting, while tossing out just 5.0 assists against 4.6 giveaways.
Around their respective point guards, their rosters are fairly similar. Both have prolific power forwards, though Blake Griffin is younger and bouncier than LaMarcus Aldridge. DeAndre Jordan and Robin Lopez bring the same high-energy skills to the floor, but Jordan's come in a more athletic package. Wesley Matthews, Arron Afflalo, J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford are all incendiary shooters.
In a season or two, the point guard battle might fall on Portland's size. But for now, that and the overall advantage in the matchup belong to L.A.
San Antonio Spurs
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Dream Matchup: Golden State Warriors
The Spurs have more than a psychological edge over the Bay Area ballers. San Antonio still holds the same trump card that turned the tide when these teams squared off in the 2013 Western Conference semifinals.
The Spurs took control of that series by putting their top two defenders—Leonard and Danny Green—on splash siblings Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. San Antonio bet that Golden State couldn't find enough offense elsewhere to survive, and it was right. The Warriors' offense wilted, and the Spurs rolled to a comfortable six-game series win.
Two years later, the Dubs still seem vulnerable against that strategy. Curry and Thompson average a combined 45.6 points and 6.4 threes per game. No one else averages more than 11.4 points or 1.4 threes.
If San Antonio takes away Golden State's top two options, it won't have to worry about being burned by a third.
Nightmare Draw: Portland Trail Blazers
If Nicolas Batum can turn things around (he went for 20 points, eight assists and seven boards his last time out), the Blazers could put the Spurs defense into some pick-your-poison scenarios.
There is nowhere for Parker to hide on that end of the floor. Either 38-year-old Tim Duncan will have to chase LaMarcus Aldridge away from the basket or San Antonio will have to guard Portland's best interior player with someone other than its best interior defender. And help will be hard to bring without freeing up Portland's collection of shooters or letting Robin Lopez go wild on the offensive glass.
The Blazers have the second-best defense guarding the three (32.2 percent allowed), so the Spurs would need to squeeze everything they can out of their dribble penetration game. But Lillard has the quickness to stay in front of Parker, while Matthews, Afflalo and Batum could share the Leonard and Manu Ginobili assignments.
Portland is 3-1 against San Antonio this season and could improve that record if these clubs compete in the opening round.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
