Checklist for Dallas Mavericks During Season's Home Stretch
The All-Star break provided the Dallas Mavericks with an opportunity to recover from various injuries, while gauging expectations for the final stretch of the season. For Dallas, there's a playoff berth, and perhaps even a championship, on the line.
The Mavs went into the break positioned right in the middle of the insanity that is the Western Conference playoff race, holding onto the fifth seed. At 36-19, Dallas is one game behind the third spot and just half a game ahead of the Los Angeles Clippers, who are currently sixth.
Dallas is good enough to stay competitive against the elite in the West, but there are certainly issues that need to be addressed and ironed out.
The Mavericks are currently 6.5 games clear of the No. 8 seed, and it would take a cascade of injuries to key players for the team to miss the postseason. Instead, the goal is naturally to climb in the standings and secure home-court advantage.
Even a momentary dip in form will have severe playoff implications moving forward. Here is the Mavericks' checklist to survive and thrive over the remainder of the regular season.
Implement Amar'e Stoudemire
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Ever since trading away Brandan Wright, the Mavericks have been very short up front. The team decided to fill that gap with Amar'e Stoudemire, who Real GM's Shams Charania reports will sign with Dallas after he negotiated a buyout with the New York Knicks.
The Mavs desperately needed at least another big body up front, and they stumbled into one by snatching Stoudemire. However, implementing him into the system will take time.
Stoudemire is another pick-and-roll partner that Dallas' guards will have to adjust to, and he also needs some touches in the post. With so much roster turnover already this season, adding another key piece can be difficult.
Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle will have to figure out how many minutes he wants out of his new player and the best way to utilize him. Stoudemire is a defensive liability, and he will have to play next to a decent rim protector for the Mavs not to suffer defensively. Whether he will spend most of his minutes with bench units or mix into some lineups with the starters remains to be seen.
At this point in his career, Stoudemire is probably most effective in a limited role off the bench. Since he is a threat in the post, playing him next to a floor-spacing big man could prove to be effective. He is certainly an interesting addition to Dallas' bench.
Stay Healthy
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In the hyper-competitive Western Conference, there is very little room for error. A legitimate title contender can crumble instantly if a key player goes down for an extended period of time, and the same goes for Dallas.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are still battling to claw their way into the playoffs, after falling behind due to injuries to Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. The Portland Trail Blazers' LaMarcus Aldridge decided to delay surgery on the torn ligaments in his thumb in order for his team to avoid a similar roller coaster ride in the final stretch of the season.
Some teams are able to sustain through an absence of a key player. The Houston Rockets have managed just fine without Dwight Howard for extended periods, but Donatas Motiejunas' development and overall frontcourt depth has helped soften the blow. Not many teams can boast such luxury.
The Mavericks have proved that they have sufficient backcourt depth to fill in for Rajon Rondo, but an injury to any other starter could have severe ramifications. Dallas simply can't cope without Chandler's rim protection, Monta Ellis' drives, Chandler Parsons' versatility on the wing and Dirk Nowitzki's gravitational pull on the floor.
It's impossible to avoid freak injuries and accidents, but preparation and precautions need to be taken. Carlisle has rested both Chandler and Nowitzki on several back-to-backs, and he has kept them around 30 minutes per game. Limiting their playing time might cost Dallas some games, but getting through the regular season in one piece has to be the priority.
Figure out the Offense
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The Mavericks have taken a huge step forward defensively since adding Rondo, but the offense hasn't quite clicked yet.
Dallas' offense mesmerized the league early in the season, stomping opposition with unstoppable drive-and-kicks. The Mavs were by far the highest-ranked team in offensive efficiency, something that has changed drastically.
Since trading for Rondo, Dallas' offensive rating is 105.4, per NBA.com. That would currently rank 10th in the league.
It's not necessarily a massive concern at the moment, especially considering that the Mavs' defensive numbers would also rank top 10 in the NBA since adding Rondo. An offensive rating of 105.4 is still ahead of the likes of the San Antonio Spurs, the Trail Blazers and the Rockets.
The Mavs are more balanced now, but the half-court offense with Rondo is still a little worrying. The pace of the game slows down in the playoffs, and opportunities in transition will be harder to come by. Smart teams will continue leaving Rondo open, while doubling down on Dallas' alternative threats.
The numbers aren't that ugly, but the eye test suggests that the offense simply doesn't flow sometimes. Most experts have their doubts about Dallas figuring it all out until postseason, and that includes ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon:
"The offense isn’t going to flow as smoothly as Rick Carlisle would prefer unless Rondo develops a reliable jumper. That’s at least a summer away – and it will be very interesting to see how the negotiations go with that uncertainty in the mix. At this point, the priorities need to be figuring out how to keep Chandler Parsons involved with Rondo running the show. Parsons, not Monta Ellis or Dirk Nowitzki, is the one whose production dipped after the Rondo deal. If Rondo returns by March, that’s adequate time for the Mavs to tinker.
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Rondo is a willing passer, but he needs the ball in his hands to be a threat. It will take more time for everyone to adjust to that.
Survive a Brutal Schedule
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The Mavericks faced the easiest opposition out of any team in the West during the first month of the season.
Since then, things have gotten progressively tougher, although Dallas still ranks just 22nd overall in strength of schedule. The Mavs' average opponent has had a winning percentage of 0.495 this season.
Following the All-Star break, Dallas will face a nightmare of a schedule.
Over their remaining 27 games, the Mavs' average opponent will have a winning percentage of 0.556. That figure would be by far the highest in the NBA this season.
If we count the New Orleans Pelicans and the Oklahoma City Thunder as playoff teams, 20 out of Dallas' 27 remaining opponents currently hold a postseason seed. The Mavs will meet several Eastern Conference powerhouses but also play 19 games against the fierce competition in the West.
Staying afloat during such a tough stretch isn't easy. There are certain games that can be regarded as scheduled losses, contests that are simply impossible to win considering the circumstances.
A back-to-back on the tail end of four games in five nights against a top contender could be regarded as a scheduled loss. The Mavs' games are spaced out relatively well, but they will have some tough spots. To start off the post-All-Star break stretch, Dallas will play five games in seven days, including two back-to-backs against top contenders in each conference.
Carlisle has done a good job spotting those trap games so far and throwing in the towel by resting his veterans. He will have to continue doing that in order for the Mavs to preserve the health of their players and come out with a respectable record in April.
Rebound the Ball
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The Mavericks' rebounding has been a topical issue all season long. The team ranks 20th in rebounding and 29th in opponent rebounds per game. This has led to a discouraging minus-3.6 differential on the glass, and only the Philadelphia 76ers have been worse in that regard.
Chandler, who ranks sixth in the league in individual rebounds per game, hasn't gotten much help from his teammates. The starting center accurately believes that it has led to other problems.
"In order to be a good defensive team, you have to get the rebounds," Chandler said, according to Eddie Sefko of The Dallas Morning News. "It knocks the wind out of your sails when you play great defense and in the last three seconds, they get a loose ball or tip it back in or shoot it back out for a wide-open shot."
Offensive rebounds not only hurt on the scoreboard, but they can shift the momentum of a game. The Mavericks have been abysmal in that regard, allowing their opponents to grab 28.2 percent of available offensive rebounds, the worst figure in the entire league, per NBA.com's media stats. That has also led to a 19th ranking in opponent second-chance points.
Opposing big men and guards alike constantly sneak behind Dallas bigs who are not boxing out and create second-chance opportunities. The Mavs are often too hasty trying to get out in transition, which puts Chandler at a direct disadvantage under the basket.
It's an issue the Mavericks are aware of and something that needs to be taken care of before the playoffs.
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