Washington Wizards Schedule Breakdown and Record Predictions for February
The Washington Wizards ended 2014 at 22-9 and looked every bit the part of an Eastern Conference contender. The start of 2015, however, has not been so kind to Washington.
The Wizards have gone just 9-11 since Jan. 1, and several Eastern teams are starting to creep up on them in the standings. It is only February, so Washington's recent struggles aren't a glaring concern yet. But a down month here could leave the Wizards in bad shape heading into the season's home stretch.
February has been none too kind to Washington thus far (it's 0-3), but there's reason to believe that things could get better soon. Just three of the Wizards' final nine opponents this month have winning records, and only one of the games against those teams comes on the road.
Still, considering how poorly Washington has played as of late, it would be a mistake to assume anything about how February will go for the team. Let's take a look at the Wizards' schedule this month, break down each game and make some predictions.
Week 1: Feb. 1 to Feb. 7
1 of 5
Feb. 7 vs. Brooklyn Nets
The Nets shouldn't pose a huge threat to the Wizards, but they are 1-1 against Washington on the year. This could get interesting if Washington doesn't clamp down defensively.
The Brooklyn bigs pose the biggest threat to Washington. Brook Lopez and Mason Plumlee are both good offensive centers, and they do damage in different ways.
Lopez is a typical back-to-the-basket big, and a good one. He's averaged 16 points per game on 55 percent true shooting over the past month, and he's had some monster games as of late.
What makes Lopez so dangerous is the way he's expanded his range this season. He's shooting more than ever from mid-range and hitting those shots at a good clip. The Nets don't want him straying too far from the rim, but his shooting makes him a much more flexible lineup option than in years past.
Conversely, Plumlee is a pick-and-roll killer. Only a handful of players have been more dangerous on hard cuts to the rim. And for what it's worth (very little), he might be the league's most devoted reverse dunker.
The two are vastly different stylistically, and Washington has to be ready for both. The good news is that their offensive impact is somewhat negated by the complete lack of wing shooters on the Brooklyn roster. Deron Williams and Joe Johnson are both solid shooters, but the Nets' third-biggest threat from outside is Alan Anderson (32.8 percent from deep). That's not exactly a roster of Kyle Korvers.
Stop me if you've heard this one, but offensively, Washington needs to get to the rim. It's no secret that the Wizards tend to fall in love with mid-range jumpers. They can't let that happen against the Nets. Brooklyn has defended deep jumpers well this season but has been terrible at protecting the rim. John Wall and friends can take advantage of that.
Predicted Record: 1-0
Week 2: Feb. 8 to Feb. 14
2 of 5
Feb. 9 vs. Orlando Magic
Feb. 11 at Toronto Raptors
Key Game: at Raptors
The second week in February holds two games and precedes a long (and much-needed) All-Star break.
The Orlando Magic are first on the docket. The Magic have a coaching change to deal with, but it took a Bradley Beal buzzer-beater to knock them off in early December. They can be a tough out when they're really clicking.
With that being said, it's hard to worry too much about this one. Orlando has a lot of young talent, but it's still a few years away from being a genuinely good team.
Nikola Vucevic can do a lot of damage down low and on the offensive glass. On top of that, Tobias Harris and Victor Oladipo have become dangerous drive-and-kick threats. But they'd have to have monster games to keep Orlando in it on the road.
The most interesting aspect of this game might be how the Wizards choose to attack the Magic when Orlando goes small. The Magic often throw Channing Frye out at the 5, a spot where his shooting opens up a lot of tough pick-and-roll matchups for opposing bigs.
Most teams simply match Orlando by going small, but the Wizards have been hesitant to do that. It'll be interesting to see if that holds up.
Neither Marcin Gortat nor Kevin Seraphin is ideal to mark Frye on the perimeter. But by the same token, Frye isn't exactly the best option to defend Gortat or Seraphin on the low block. Sliding Nene into the 5 would seem to be the best of both worlds for Washington, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see the team continue to battle small lineups with a traditional center.
The final game before the All-Star break comes against the Toronto Raptors, the No. 2 team in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors are just 9-9 in 2015, but they are 2-0 against Washington on the year. This one could have legitimate playoff implications.
Despite their recent skid, the Raptors still boast one of the NBA's best offenses. Toronto may not have many big names outside of Kyle Lowry, but it does two things well—take care of the ball and get to the free-throw line.
Lowry, Jonas Valanciunas, Lou Williams and DeMar DeRozan all get to the charity stripe at a good clip. Protecting the rim without fouling will be critical for Washington.
The player to watch on the Raptors is Patrick Patterson, who's shooting 41.5 percent from deep this season.
Patterson roasted the Wizards on Jan. 31, scoring 16 points on just seven shots and hitting three three-pointers. Washington was basically forced to shelve Gortat (who played just 24 minutes) in favor of Nene and Kris Humphries in an attempt to defend Patterson on the perimeter. That's not good.
Gortat's pick-and-roll play is a critical part of the Wizards offense, and Washington needs to find a way to keep him on the court against Toronto. The other thing it needs to do is crash the glass. The Raptors are surprisingly weak on the defensive boards, and Washington could use as many easy half-court baskets as it can get.
Predicted Record: 1-1 (L: Raptors)
Week 3: Feb 15 to Feb. 24
3 of 5
Feb. 20 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Feb. 22 at Detroit Pistons
Feb. 24 vs. Golden State Warriors
Key Game: vs. Cavaliers
This would be yet another one-game week for the Wizards, so I'm going to cheat a bit and lump a few more games in.
First up are the Cavs, who hold the league's longest win streak (12 games) now that the Atlanta Hawks have fallen. Cleveland has been on fire since trading for Timofey Mozgov in early January, posting the league's best offense over its run.
The biggest threats on the Cavaliers are obvious—LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving. The Irving-Love pick-and-roll is particularly dangerous. Irving is a scary off-the-dribble shooter, and he's more than happy to launch them from deep. Most teams will blitz players like that on the pick-and-roll, but Love's outside shooting makes that a dicey proposition.
It's going to be up to Wall to force his way over screens and keep Irving from clean three-point looks. It wouldn't be surprising to see the Nene-Humphries combination get a lot of burn against Cleveland, especially when the Cavs play Love at the 5. Washington can't afford to have Gortat or Seraphin tracking Love on the perimeter.
The Wizards next go on the road to play Detroit, which has been surprisingly decent despite recently losing Brandon Jennings to a season-ending injury. The Pistons have had some brutal losses since then, but they've also smoked the Houston Rockets and the Miami Heat. It would be unwise to take them lightly.
Weirdly, the Wizards can take advantage of the time that Detroit's two best players—Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe—are on the court together. Neither Monroe nor Drummond can shoot at all, and the Pistons sputter offensively when they're out there. Washington should be able to camp the lane and stymie Detroit at the rim.
Conversely, the Pistons have been excellent when just one of their two stars is on the floor surrounded by shooters. The Wizards' bigs need to stick with them in one-on-one and pick-and-roll situations. If Washington needs to send extra help down low, it will open up easy looks for the Detroit shooters.
Offensively, the Wizards have huge point guard mismatches to exploit. With Jennings out, the Pistons are leaning on D.J. Augustin and Spencer Dinwiddie, neither of whom has much of a chance against his Washington counterparts. Wall has a big physical advantage over Augustin. And it's hard to imagine that a rookie like Dinwiddie is entirely prepared for Andre Miller to go to work in the post.
The final game this week comes against the Warriors, who are inarguably the league's best team.
To be honest, this one doesn't look great for the Wizards, at least not on paper. The Warriors have shooters everywhere, and they play almost exclusively small lineups with Draymond Green or Harrison Barnes at the 4, per 82games.com.
Unlike guys like Love or Frye, Green and Barnes are dangerous from deep and off the dribble. That makes them nearly impossible covers for Nene or Humphries. If Washington ever intends on giving Paul Pierce extended burn at the 4, it'll be in a game like this one.
Nene and Humphries could both hurt Golden State down low, but they'd have to be phenomenal to make up for the defensive hit the Wizards would take with them in there.
The Warriors defend virtually every area of the court well, but they are a bit foul prone. If Washington can attack the rim and get a few of the Warriors bigs in foul trouble, it could make things interesting.
Projected Record: 1-2 (L: Cavaliers, Warriors)
Week 4: Feb. 25 to Feb. 28
4 of 5
Feb. 25 at Minnesota Timberwolves
Feb. 27 at Philadelphia 76ers
Feb. 28 vs. Detroit Pistons
Key Game: at Timberwolves
Thankfully, the Wizards end the month with a winnable slate of games, starting with a Feb. 25 contest against the Timberwolves. Minnesota has a lot of young players and might be a great team in a few years. But it's just 9-40 this season and should be easy pickings for Washington.
It's worth mentioning that, when healthy, the Timberwolves do have a fair amount of offensive talent.
Nikola Pekovic and Shabazz Muhammad are both bruisers on the low block. Kevin Martin is a deadly shooter, and Andrew Wiggins is starting to cash in on his prodigious talent. Those guys, combined with Ricky Rubio, make for a lot of fun. But they'd have to be nearly perfect offensively to beat the Wizards with the way they're playing defense.
Minnesota is the worst defensive team in the league, and it really isn't all that close. The Timberwolves surrender 109.4 points per 100 possessions, in part because they can't protect the basket at all.
Opponents are shooting 67.2 percent at the rim against Minnesota, a staggering number. And to make matters even worse, the Timberwolves allow 37 percent shooting from deep, the second-worst mark in the league.
As long as Washington doesn't play its worst ball of the year against Minnesota, it's fairly safe to pencil in a win here.
Really, the same goes for the 76ers, who are in the middle of a massive rebuild. Philadelphia has managed to put together a decent defense this season, but its offense has been bad—historically so.
The 76ers are on pace to post the worst offensive season in more than 10 years and one of the three worst offensive seasons in the three-point era. They're truly horrific on that end.
The one guy that the Wizards need to watch out for is Robert Covington, who's come out of nowhere to shoot 38 percent from three on 7.6 attempts per 36 minutes. Philadelphia doesn't have many (read: any) other wing shooters, so as long as Washington contains Covington, it should be able to lock down the paint.
The final February game is a rematch against the Pistons, and everything that was written about Detroit earlier still applies. One thing the Wizards have to make sure to do is keep the Pistons off the offensive glass. Detroit is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA, and Washington can't give it easy half-court buckets.
Projected Record: 3-0
Conclusion
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The prediction here is that the Wizards right the ship and go 6-3 throughout the rest of February. That would put them at 37-23 on the year and could be enough to keep them at No. 3 in the East.
Washington is experiencing its first major skid of the season. It's going to be interesting to see how the Wizards respond to that, especially with the trade deadline right around the corner.
It's unlikely that Washington makes any really roster-shaking moves. But if this slide continues, it wouldn't be a total shock to at least see general manager Ernie Grunfeld look into some deals to bulk up the end of the rotation.
The Wizards are essentially a playoff guarantee, but where they end up in the standings is still very much in question. Just a handful of wins could end up having a massive impact on playoff seeding, and they can't let home-court advantage slip away. This month is going to be big.
Projected February Record: 6-6
All statistics accurate as of 2/5/2015 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference or NBA.com unless stated otherwise.
