Western Conference Climb Gets Steeper for Mavericks After Rajon Rondo Injury
The 82-game NBA season is a marathon.
But cliche as it may sound, every single game truly matters when teams are fighting for positioning in the brutal, historically excellent Western Conference. The Dallas Mavericks aren't exactly an exception to the rule.
After holding on against the Orlando Magic on Saturday night, surviving after Rajon Rondo took a brutal knee to the face from teammate Richard Jefferson, the Mavericks moved to 32-17 on the season. They currently sit in the No. 6 spot in the tougher half of the NBA, and the climb toward the top just got significantly tougher.
That report from USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt is by no means a death knell for the Mavericks' season.
It's just a problem.
"Hopefully, he has a quick and speedy recovery," Jefferson expressed, via ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon. "Luckily we have the All-Star break not far away, so hopefully that will give him some more time to get right. He's a tough guy."
Surgery, however, would throw a wrench in these plans. ESPN Insider Tom Haberstroh, with the help of Dr. Mark Adickes, who used to serve as a Houston Rockets team physician and is now an orthopedic surgeon, explains why:
"'The issue with orbital fractures is the potential for double vision,' Adickes said. 'If Rondo experiences double vision as a result of the high-velocity impact, then he'll likely require surgery. But the Mavericks have to give him time for the swelling to go down before they can fully assess his vision and that process typically takes 72 hours.'
Avoiding surgery would be big. According to research from injury expert Jeff Stotts, orbital surgery has sidelined NBA players for as many as 28 games (Sanders) and as few as five (Bosh). The average absence is about 12 games, which would put Rondo back in a uniform on Feb. 25 for the Mavericks' game in Atlanta. Even if surgery is in play, it's highly unlikely that Rondo's status for the playoffs would be in jeopardy with this injury. Earlier this season, Victor Oladipo missed nine games, but he did not break his nose like Rondo did.
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But let's rule surgery out for now. The negative ramifications of going under the knife are more obvious, after all.
With everything healing on its own, the presence of the All-Star break still mitigates any worst-case-scenario concerns. Zillgitt mentioned Rondo was out "at least" three games, but what if, even without surgery, he was forced to miss more? Fortunately, the Mavs only have six contests between the injury and the All-Star break, so he'd have plenty of extra time for rest and recovery before a Feb. 19 game against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
That's the good news. The bad news is that this injury still puts the team behind the eight ball.
Falling Behind
It was already going to be rather difficult for the Mavericks to creep up any higher in the Western standings. They had a shot at passing the injury-plagued Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers, but both teams were better when everyone was at full strength. The Los Angeles Clippers are ahead in the hierarchy and trending in the right direction, while the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors are in a class of their own.
However, now the teams just below Dallas have to enter into the picture as well.
The San Antonio Spurs only have two fewer wins than the pre-Rondo-injury Mavericks, and the Phoenix Suns have to feel a little bit threatening since they're only four games behind.
A three-outing absence may not seem like a lot. It only makes up 3.66 percent of the 2014-15 season.
But in the West, three games could potentially separate the No. 2 team in the conference from the No. 6. It could be the difference between No. 3 and No. 7. In fact, that's actually exactly how many victories separate each of those two pairings in question heading into Monday night's affairs.
Fortunately, the schedule over those next three contests isn't exactly daunting.
The Mavericks play at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves first, then they travel to Oracle Arena for a clash with the Western Conference-leading Dubs. After that, they're on the road for a should-win game against the struggling Sacramento Kings. If Rondo misses more time than expected, things become tougher—the Blazers, Clippers and Utah Jazz are on the schedule before the All-Star break—but this seems manageable.
Golden State is probably—with emphasis, given the uncertain nature of any single NBA game—a loss even with Rondo at full strength. But what if Dallas doesn't take care of business against the Wolves and Kings? That's now a distinct possibility, and teams in the West can't afford to lose games they're supposed to win.
And, let's face it, the Mavericks haven't exactly been world-beaters with Rondo on the bench ever since they gave up a lot of their depth to acquire him, though they did beat the Chicago Bulls on the road in the one game he's missed while with the franchise.
Since Dec. 20, when the talented point guard debuted in a victory over the San Antonio Spurs, NBA.com shows that Dallas has outscored the opposition by a mere 3.8 points per 100 possessions. That's a solid mark, but it's not where it needs to be in order to feel comfortable about each of the next three games.
Maybe the Mavericks will go 2-1 with Rondo out. But doubt has now crept into the equation, and there's one more concern even if things do go according to the pre-injury plan.
Failure to Build Chemistry
When a new piece is added to a lineup, there's always an adjustment period.
Teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers take this to an extreme when acquiring two superstars who completely alter the schematic makeup of an organization. But thrusting a ball-dominant point guard into the mix during the middle of the season? That requires some time to gain chemistry as well. And thus far, the process hasn't gone well for a Mavs squad that was actually better before it added Rondo.
During the 27 games that took place prior to Dallas sending Brandan Wright, Jae Crowder and Jameer Nelson to the Boston Celtics for the former All-Star, this team was scoring 116.8 points per 100 possessions. Sure, it was also giving up 109 over the same stretch, but that's a rather impressive net rating and allowed the Mavericks to look like the greatest offensive team of all time.
That's not an exaggeration. If you look at adjusted offensive efficiency (comparing the performance to the league average for perspective and explained in full here), they were on pace to be the No. 1 offense in NBA history prior to trading for Rondo.
Since the distributing maestro came to town? The defense has improved, now allowing just 104.3 points per 100 possessions. But that's not enough to make up for the stark decline on the more glamorous end, as the offensive rating has sunk all the way to 108.3.
They're more balanced now, but a net rating of 7.8 is far superior to outscoring teams by four points per 100 possessions. And before anyone jumps on the "but they needed better defense to win a title" train, defense doesn't really win championships any more than offense does.
But that's a subject for another time and place.
What's important here is that the Mavericks have added more talent and become a worse team, simply because not all of the pieces fit together right now. According to my factor adjusted team similarities (FATS) projections (based on historical comparisons and explained in great detail here), Dallas was playing like a 50-win squad before the trade and has since declined to performing like a 44-win team.
Now, if you're wondering whether this absence is actually a good thing because the team has been worse since he arrived, that's not really how it works. The Mavericks sacrificed their depth to acquire an upgrade at point guard, and now they have to rest in the bed they made.
There are no saviors coming to town, and the team has to rely on Rondo since Devin Harris, J.J. Barea and Raymond Felton are the primary backups.
"We've just got to make it work with the guys that we have available in these situations, and we will," head coach Rick Carlisle told MacMahon. "This is part of the challenge of an NBA season."
In the meantime, Harris will be the horse Dallas chooses to saddle up, according to Haberstroh:
"But Harris is the guy. He subbed in for Rondo against Orlando and started the second half alongside Ellis in the backcourt as the Mavericks ran the Magic off their own court. The interesting wrinkle here is that the Mavericks have been better with Harris than Rondo in the starting lineup this season. Saturday's romp in Orlando wasn't the exception; it's more or less the rule.
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Ultimately, it doesn't matter if the team has been better with Harris in the starting five, simply because Rondo has more upside. Dallas is going to ride this experiment out after committing to it so strongly, and that's why the absence hurts so much.
Missing one game here and there is fine. But losing out on—at least—three consecutive opportunities to build on-court chemistry with teammates is problematic. Especially since this team is struggling and desperately needs every possible to chance to figure out the best way to use the many talents at Carlisle's disposal. The postseason remains a virtual guarantee, and the Mavs have to be as sharp as possible when preparing for the postseason gauntlet.
So are we making a big deal out of a three-game absence? Absolutely.
In the Western Conference, you have to when you're fighting to stay near the top of the standings.
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