Sacramento Kings' Schedule Breakdown and Record Predictions for January
As the calendar turns from 2014 to 2015, the Sacramento Kings are struggling. Losers of nine of its last 11 games, the team needs to right the ship in January.
Yet the schedule in January doesn't look particularly easy for the Kings. Sacramento plays 15 games in the month, seven of which are against teams that currently have a winning record. It also finishes the month on a five-game road trip.
There are certainly some games that look winnable though, most notably tilts at the Minnesota Timberwolves, Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers, as well as a home contest against the Brooklyn Nets. Of course, with the way the Kings have been playing lately, nothing can be taken for granted.
Jan. 1 Through Jan. 7
1 of 5
Key Matchup: Jan. 1 at Minnesota (W)
Rest of Schedule: Jan. 4 at Detroit Pistons (L), Jan. 7 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (L)
The game at Minnesota on New Year's Day figures to be the key matchup of the week, mainly because it's the one in which Sacramento has its best chance of winning.
The Kings already won at Minnesota back on Nov. 22. Granted, Sacramento was a different team at the time, boasting a 7-5 record and playing better with head coach Michael Malone at the helm. Since Tyrone Corbin replaced Malone, the franchise is 2-6.
Still, at 5-25, Minnesota is one of the league's worst teams. Even coming off a back-to-back, it's a game the Kings can win. DeMarcus Cousins scored 31 points and grabbed 18 rebounds on Nov. 22, and there's no reason to think he can't post similar production. Ben McLemore also chipped in 22 points and nine rebounds in the contest.
Despite having a better record than the Pistons, a game against Detroit could be difficult. They already beat the Kings in Sacramento on Dec. 13 in what would prove to be Malone's last game as coach. Cousins didn't play in that game, and having him back should help. But the Pistons have won three in a row, and with their next game being against the Knicks, that's likely to extend the winning streak.
Beating Oklahoma City figures to be a tall task. The Thunder have already beat the Kings twice, on Nov. 9 and Dec. 16, and Kevin Durant has returned from an ankle injury.
Record: 1-2
Jan. 8 Through Jan. 14
2 of 5
Key Matchup: Jan. 11 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (W)
Rest of Schedule: Jan. 9 vs. Denver Nuggets (L), Jan. 13 vs. Dallas Mavericks (L)
The tilt hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers on Jan. 11 should be a fun one. It's the only time Cleveland is coming to Sacramento this season. Unfortunately it looks like LeBron James won't be playing in it.
It's also a game the Kings can win. They won't be favored, but there are a couple factors in their favor. Having DeMarcus Cousins will be a huge boost. He's a force against any team, but Cleveland makes for an even better matchup. With Anderson Varejao out for the season and the Cavaliers lacking a viable center to replace him, Cousins could have his way in the post.
Not to mention, the Kings beat the Miami Heat last season on Dec. 27. Obviously the Heat and Cavs are different teams, but Sacramento will be fired up for this game as it was for Miami a year ago. Plus, the Cavs are still finding their footing, which makes the chance of an upset more likely.
Sacramento has beat the Denver Nuggets twice already (on Nov. 3 and Nov. 5). That makes a win possible, especially since the Nuggets are posting a similar record (13-19). Yet the Kings aren't as good as they were in early November.
As for the Mavs, they're one of the league's better teams. Plus their No. 1 offensive rating will cause fits for a Kings defense that is 29th since Corbin took over as head coach.
Record: 1-2
Jan. 15 Through Jan. 21
3 of 5
Key Matchup: Jan. 16 vs. Miami Heat (W)
Rest of Schedule: Jan. 17 vs. Los Angeles Clippers (W), Jan. 19 at Portland Trail Blazers (L), Jan. 21 vs. Brooklyn Nets (W)
The Heat are currently the worst team on the schedule that week, plus the game is being played in Sacramento. But most importantly, the Kings match up well against Miami.
The Heat's three best players are Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng. Of the three, only Wade is markedly better than his Sacramento counterpart. Rudy Gay is slightly better than Deng in win shares and win shares per 48 minutes, respectively—Gay is at 3.1 and .138, while Deng is at 2.5 and .121. Meanwhile, Cousins leads Bosh in nearly every statistical category.
The key for the Kings will be protecting the ball. It's been a season-long issue for Sacramento, but especially in recent contests. The Heat can be had, but the Kings aren't good enough to win if they're giving the opposition extra chances.
The game against the Clippers is also one the Kings can win. Sacramento already beat them in Los Angeles on Nov. 2.
Plus, Cousins always finds extra motivation against the Clippers. He averaged 26 points, 12.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists against them in 2013-14. During the contest in November, the center took it a step further, scoring 34 points, grabbing 17 rebounds, dishing out five assists and blocking three shots.
Getting wins against Portland and Brooklyn could be difficult. The game against Portland is on the road, and the Blazers are 15-2 at home so far. Sacramento lost in Brooklyn on Dec. 29, but it should be different this time around. The Kings were careless and lackadaisical in that one, turning the ball over 21 times. If it takes better care of the ball, Sacramento will win.
Record: 3-1
Jan. 22 Through Jan. 31
4 of 5
Key Matchup: Jan. 26 at New York Knicks (W)
Rest of Schedule: Jan. 23 at Golden State (L), Jan. 28 at Toronto Raptors (L), Jan. 30 at Cleveland Cavaliers (L), Jan. 31 at Indiana Pacers (L)
Save the best for last.
In this case, it's more like "save the best teams for last." The game at the Knicks is the only one in which the Kings may be favored. That's why it's the key matchup. If the Kings don't win it, there's a good chance they go winless on the week.
But the Kings already have a victory against New York, albeit the game was in Sacramento. Yet it's a good starting point because it was a post-Malone win. Those have been difficult to come by, and comparing the team's wins with and without the coach is kind of like comparing apples to oranges.
But the Knicks had no answer for Cousins. He scored 39 points in 32 minutes against New York on Dec. 27. The big man was able to establish position in the post, and he made the Knicks pay when they brought help, as Sacramento was able to hit eight three-pointers.
It's a good thing the Knicks are bad—really bad. They're currently 5-28. If that weren't enough, they're also 3-13 at home. That'll help the Kings, and right now they can use all the help they can get.
A game at Indiana could be had too. The Kings beat them at home in overtime on Dec. 3. It was also a contest in which Cousins didn't play. But the tilt is a back-to-back one for the Kings, and it's the last one of a five-game road trip.
Not much analysis is needed in explaining the Kings will lose at Golden State, Toronto and Cleveland. All of those teams are considerably better than Sacramento, and they'll have the home-court advantage.
Record: 1-4
January Recap
5 of 5
The feel surrounding the Kings at the end of December is starkly different than it was at the conclusion of November. In one month's time, they've gone from a surprise contender to "the same old Kings."
While it's true any team can win on any given night, there's no longer optimism there. We now have to cherry-pick the schedule to find games the Kings can win, and Sacramento needs to take advantage of each of those.
It's true the season will still only be halfway done at the end of January. But it's important to remember it can get late early in the Western Conference. The Kings are already 3.5 games out of the playoff picture, and that's with a resurgent Thunder team on the outside looking in.
In other words, if the Kings still have their sights on the playoffs, they can't afford to lose any more ground this month. If they do, their focus should turn from qualifying for postseason to keeping their top-five protected draft pick.
Record: 6-9
All stats current as of games played on Dec. 31.
What do you think of the Kings' chances in January? Let me know on Twitter @SimRisso.
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