How Can Marc Gasol Add NBA MVP to His Trophy Collection?
During an era in which the most valued NBA stars are typically those with eye-extracting stats and acrobatic athleticism, Marc Gasol is not your average MVP candidate.
And yet he is an early 2014-15 MVP candidate, up there or above the likes of Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, Stephen Curry and James Harden.
Recent results don't favor Gasol. Each of the last seven MVP honors—James (four times), Derrick Rose, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant—went to explosive specimens. We must journey back to 2006-07 to find an MVP (Dirk Nowitzki) who relied (way) more on guile than athleticism. We have to look even further back, to 1999-00, to find the last MVP who also played most of his minutes at center (Shaquille O'Neal).
Still, Gasol has a firm hold on legitimate candidacy despite being more crafty than agile and more strapping than wiry.
How might he turn that strong hold into a chokehold and ensure he adds an MVP trophy to a case already containing Defensive Player of the Year honors? It's a good thing you asked, because the answer is nigh.
Stay the Course
This is not a sheepish, page-filling cop out; it's an active acknowledgement that Gasol must keep doing what has put him in this conversation.
Gasol is averaging a career-high in points (19.8) and player efficiency rating (23.1) to go along with 7.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.7 blocks. If his numbers hold, he'll become the first player since Tim Duncan in 2008-09 to average at least 19 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.5 blocks for an entire season.
Impressive still is the fact that Gasol ranks ninth in win shares with 3.7, putting him on pace for 12.1, which would easily be the highest total of his career.
There isn't anything particularly different about Gasol's game, mind you. He's a bit slimmer and attempting more shots, but his rebound, assist and block rates are virtually identical to 2013-14.
Really, his is a transformation that began last season. He missed 23 games while tending to an MCL sprain, and upon coming back, he turned the Memphis Grizzlies into a juggernaut.
From the time of his return, Memphis maintained the league's third-highest winning percentage (71.7), behind only the Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs, according to NBA.com (subscription required). And he's having a similar impact this season—only more people are taking notice.
Like USA Today's Sam Amick writes:
"Because Gasol's statistical output wasn't always what it is now, it used to be that NBA scouts, executives and coaching types were the only ones who truly appreciated his contributions.
Sunday afternoon in Sacramento was no different in that regard, as the scouts on hand marveled at everything from his Dirk Nowitzki-esque fadeaway jumpers to his high-post passing to the little things he does on the defensive end that haven't been a secret since he was the Defensive Player of the Year for the 2012-13 season.
Even with the Grizzlies somehow getting one nationally-televised game this season (excluding NBATV), Gasol's game is less of a secret now than ever. Yet no one appreciates it more than the teammates and coaches who hope this isn't their last hurrah together.
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The Grizzlies are demanding more attention in general. Though they have long been criticized for their relative inability to generate offense, they currently rank sixth in points scored per 100 possessions.
When Gasol is on the floor, their offense is even more efficient, flirting with top-five territory. And while the defense is statistically better without him, he is still very much the anchor of Memphis' seventh-place point-preventing unit.
Opponents are shooting just 48.3 percent at the rim when he's policing the interior even though he's facing the sixth-most point-blank attempts per game (9.2). Esteemed iron protectors like Andre Drummond (48.5 percent) and Davis (49.4) are allowing higher success rates despite facing fewer looks.
Basically, this is the most potent, well-rounded version of Gasol we've seen. He has a fixed grasp on Best Center honors—he leads all centers in PER and points, and he's second in assist percentage—and he's posting the loud stat lines that garner attention.
If Gasol sustains his current level of performance, he'll easily stay a part of the MVP discussion.
Gasol the Aggressor
To further boost his MVP standing, Gasol will need to take even more control than he is now. His usage rate is way up from last season—21.7 to 25.6—but it still pales in comparison to past MVPs. Same goes for his shot attempts.
Below you'll see the relationship between Gasol's usage rate and field-goal attempts and those of the past 20 MVPs:
If Gasol wins MVP this season, he would have the third-lowest usage rate and shot-attempts average of the last 20 recipients. The lower two are both owned by Steve Nash, who is a point guard and defers by craft.
Not much changes when we pit Gasol against top MVP candidates for this season:
Once again, he's an outlier. Chris Paul is the only one with lower totals, and he's the NBA's Nash-iest point guard.
"Marc's always been so unselfish," Zach Randolph told ESPN.com's Chris Herrington. "Forget that, man. We need you to go to work, not just make a play for someone else. I tell him every game, 'Go out there and dominate.'"
Memphis has lost just twice this season when Gasol attempts at least 15 shots and only once when he heaves 17 or more. The Grizzlies are also 8-1 when he exceeds 20 points.
The upshot here, of course, is that it's difficult for centers to demand possessions. Offenses run through point guards, and the three-point shot is crazy popular these days. Gasol is neither a point guard nor a long-range gunner, and he is featured more often than some bigs on other teams.
But he does lead the NBA in elbow touches per game, and he's first among all centers in total touches for 2014-15. There are more shots for him to take and points for him to score.
"This year I changed my mindset," he explained to Herrington. "Instead of taking eight or nine shots, I might need to take 14 or 15 or 16 because that's what the team needs. It's not easy, because when you have a good shot and you feel like someone else has a great shot; it's just in [my] DNA to swing the ball."
Pass-first instincts are indeed what make Gasol so unique. Changing that entirely messes with something that isn't broken. But if the evidence suggests an aggressive Gasol amounts to a more formidable Grizzlies squad, then it wouldn't hurt for him to be a little more selfish—you know, for the good of his team.
Wins and Losses
In the end, despite everything Gasol has done and continues to do, the only MVP fuel that will truly allow him to stand above the rest is victories.
Others will score more points. Grab more rebounds. Drop more dimes. Block more shots. Bury more buzzer-beating threes off the glass. Post higher PERs.
Many will even own a better net rating—the difference between their offensive and defensive ratings—when all's told.
Few of them, though, have the opportunity to spearhead something so unexpectedly spectacular.
These Grizzlies weren't atop Western Conference projections before the season. They weren't near the top of league forecasts either.
Rather, they were behind the Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Clippers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Chicago Bulls and more
Every year the Grizzlies are underestimated. Even now, Gasol is the most prominent 2015 free agent linked to a potential departure, per Cathal Kelly of The Globe and Mail, like Memphis is a team nearly incapable of keeping its prized player happy. But the Grizzlies have arrived in a big way, dethroning giants (Warriors), contending for the West's top spot and chasing the league's best record.
At the forefront of it all is Gasol, Memphis' own MVP, steering an oft-omitted powerhouse toward unmistakable superiority—the significance of which can vault him to the top of MVP ladders everywhere.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and are accurate as of games played Dec. 18, 2014.
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