Dallas Mavericks Getting Exposed Against Western Conference Elite
Despite this summer's infusion of new talent and a championship mandate accompanying the sunset of Dirk Nowitzki's career, the Dallas Mavericks still have some work to do.
Though they're leading the league in offensive efficiency—with 113.9 points per 100 possessions, according to Hollinger Team Stats—and currently boast a respectable 16-7 record, the Mavericks haven't been successful against the teams they'll likely meet in the postseason.
After Tuesday night's 114-105 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, Dallas is just 6-5 against conference opponents and 0-5 against those holding a top-eight seed at the moment.
It's also come up short against the San Antonio Spurs, Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets and Phoenix Suns.
You could blame the team's 101-100 opening-night loss to San Antonio on Chandler Parsons' early slump, but the 26-year-old scored a season-high 30 points against the Grizzlies. This time, the culprit may be more of a long-term problem.
"We were battling, but we just gave up too many points," star forward Dirk Nowitzki told reporters after Tuesday's game. "We gave up 114 to a team that's a slower team, a team that plays a grind-out kind of style. It's too many points."
For the record, Nowitzki only made four of his 17 field-goal attempts, so that probably had something to do with the loss as well.
But we won't see many performances like that from the future Hall of Famer. Questions about this team's defensive pedigree may be more persistent, however. And those are the questions that threaten to derail a deep playoff run when faced with the West's other high-powered offenses.
Head coach Rick Carlisle is no slouch on the defensive end, but his club is giving up 105.2 points per 100 possessions through its first 23 games—the ninth-worst mark in the league, according to Hollinger Team Stats. Dallas hasn't held an opponent below 100 points since its Nov. 22 loss to the Rockets.
To be sure, Tyson Chandler's return at the center position has helped. Despite their broader defensive liabilities, the Mavericks allow the third-fewest points in the paint—38.5 per contest, according to TeamRankings.com.
Unfortunately, they also rank dead-last in opponents' fast-break points, giving up 16.3 transition points per game. That's a mark that trails the Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers, and it's especially odd given that Dallas only turns the ball over in 12 percent of their possessions—tied for the league's second-lowest rate.
There are a couple of reasons this team is struggling to get back in transition, though—to say nothing of the fact that Nowitzki is running the floor with 36-year-old legs.
First, the Mavericks only collect 48.6 percent of missed shots, ranking them just 23rd in rebound rate. That means additional possessions for the opposition, including a few extra opportunities to push tempo in the open court.
Second, the small backcourt—comprised of Monta Ellis and Jameer Nelson—is ill-suited to contesting shots on the break. Though they're typically the first defenders back to the basket, there's not a whole lot they can do upon getting there.
More intangible things like effort and focus almost certainly play a role as well, both in terms of transition defense and getting stops in general.
It's a recipe for disaster against a handful of elite, two-way teams that look for every opportunity to score before opposing defenses have a chance to set up. The Mavericks face one such team later this week when the top-seeded Golden State Warriors come to town on Saturday.
Playing at the league's third-highest pace (with 101.2 possessions per game), Golden State is precisely the kind of operation that will seriously test Dallas' not-so-big D. The Warriors pass, shoot and run—all weapons that should expose the Mavericks' lack of defensive activity.
Still riding a 13-game winning streak, the Warriors are also an opportunity for Carlisle and Co.
"We would like to play well against these teams and prove to ourselves and show everybody that we're one of the top-tier teams," Parsons told reporters this week. "To do that, we're going to have to come out here and beat these teams."
A victory against a team like Golden State would be the best evidence yet that this franchise has truly improved its title odds.
So far, that evidence consists of three road wins against Eastern Conference heavyweights: the Toronto Raptors (16-6), Washington Wizards (14-6) and Chicago Bulls (12-8).
Impressive enough but less telling than you might think. Even the Mavs' quality wins have their caveats.
Five teams in the West have a better winning percentage than the East's top-seeded Raptors, and the reigning-champion Spurs are one win away from matching Toronto in the standings. Dallas needed two overtimes to top Chicago and beat the Wizards and Raptors by a combined margin of just seven points.
At their very best, the Mavericks still haven't been dominant—which is particularly alarming when you're talking about a club with the league's most efficient offense.
The good news is that there's time to change all that. Defensive screws will probably be tightened, and compelling statements will probably be made.
Moreover, regular-season results aren't always indicative of postseason fates.
ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon recently cited Dallas' 2011 championship team, noting that, "Many pundits picked the Mavs to lose in the first round of those playoffs."
"There was sound logic in those predictions," MacMahon added. "The Mavs were 2-15 against the other West playoff teams after New Year's Day that season."
That changed when the playoffs rolled around, and it's certainly possible this iteration of the Mavericks experiences a similar turnaround just in time—if not a couple months sooner.
This roster's improvement on paper is beyond dispute, but the fact remains that three of its starters were on different teams a season ago. An adjustment period is to be expected, even if all the instant firepower ostensibly suggests otherwise.
Unless and until some awakening occurs, however, there's legitimate reason for concern. The Mavericks are losing to the West's best teams and defending like one of its worst in the process.
This season's final script remains unwritten, but the Dallas Mavericks aren't a championship team just yet.
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