Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Orlando Magic in the Month of December
The Orlando Magic weathered a six-game West Coast road trip to start the month, where they finished a surprising 3-3. They took down the Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz and a DeMarcus Cousins-less Sacramento Kings team and were one Stephen Curry buzzer-beater away from defeating the NBA's hottest team, the Golden State Warriors.
In what was supposed to be an early-round knockout blow to a struggling team on the first long road trip of the season, the Magic return from the West Coast a better team than when they left. After three days of much-needed rest, they face off against the Washington Wizards Wednesday night at the Amway Center.
What's most impressive—and there are a few things—about this most recent road trip is that the Magic were able to tread water without center Nikola Vucevic. In the midst of his best season as a pro, Vucevic has been sidelined since November 30 with a lower-back strain.
Out of the 12 games remaining in December, all but one are against Eastern Conference opponents—a five-win Jazz team being the lone Western Conference squad. This bodes well for a 9-14 team looking to keep the energy high and this positive momentum rolling into 2015.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Magic over the next few weeks.
Best-Case Scenario
With the hard part of Orlando's schedule in the rearview, it's time for this team to really make some noise. The next few weeks are tailor-made for a season-defining run.
Let's prognosticate.
Of those 12 remaining games on the schedule for this month, only five are against teams with winning records, and three of those matchups are at home. The only two games on the road against winning teams are with the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks.
With games against the aforementioned Jazz, as well as Eastern Conference bottom feeders like the Philadelphia 76ers, Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets, Orlando essentially has four wins gift-wrapped to them.
In addition, let's factor in a split of home-and-homes against the Hawks and Boston Celtics, and give them two wins out of four games against Washington, Toronto, the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers, which is a conservative estimate. All of a sudden, Orlando is closing out the month 8-4, pushing its record to 17-18 and climbing up into the playoff picture in the East.
Of course, for all that to happen, things need to keep clicking.
In this scenario, Vucevic returns early from injury and continues on his pace of 18.9 points and 11.7 rebounds a night. Kyle O'Quinn has been impressive since returning from a sprained left ankle that sidelined him for a month. The big man has scored double digits in three of the past four games, doing what he can to help fill that void.
"He's gotten a lot better," Vucevic said regarding O'Quinn, via Ken Hornack of Fox Sports. "He's a great worker. This summer, he dedicated himself to working. And it's paying off for him, and I'm happy for him."
Victor Oladipo has been a huge boost since his return from a facial fracture in mid-November. During the recent six-game road trip, Oladipo averaged 16.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.5 steals a night on a red-hot 56.7 percent shooting from the field. In addition, the career 33 percent three-point shooter knocked down 54.5 percent of his long-range attempts in that same span.
His presence alone is an automatic boost to this team no matter what, but in this particular scenario his shooting remains an asset, and he stays hot.
You can't talk about hot streaks without mentioning Tobias Harris. Since missing two games against Miami and Cleveland on November 22 and 24, Harris is averaging 19.0 points on 49 percent shooting from the field and 47 percent from three-point range (eight games), all of which are better than the career highs he's already set for himself this season.
It's been a coming-out party of sorts for Harris this year, per Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel:
"Harris has developed and delivered on his end so far. He has averaged 18.9 points on 48 percent shooting, and 7.9 rebounds, career bests. He's upgraded his 3-point shooting (41 percent). He hit a game-winner in Philly. Known as a scorer, he accepted Vaughn's challenge and played better defense, not giving lackadaisical a chance. Tobias Harris' nickname is "All Business." And business right now is good, very good.
"
If Vucevic can return sooner rather than later, with Oladipo and Harris still streaking, that 8-4 finish down the stretch is a very realistic goal.
Worst-Case Scenario
First and foremost, the worst-case scenario would be that Vucevic's injury lingers and bites Orlando as the month progresses.
Without its best player, Orlando can't muster up enough offense consistently and loses games it should win. Nine of the 12 remaining games are against offenses that outscore Orlando's 24th-ranked unit, including six that are in the top 10.
To that point, players who have been performing over their heads all year offensively don't amass the same kind of production going forward.
For example, Evan Fournier, someone who seemingly started the season on fire, has crashed back down to earth.
In his last six games, while playing his normal allotment of minutes, Fournier averaged just 10.3 points a game on 36.9 percent shooting and 28.6 percent from three-point range, all well below his season averages. In this scenario, Fournier's crash continues, and a team starving for offense relegates its now-struggling new guard to a bench role.
Forget about Oladipo and Harris for a second. Even if they don't keep up their current paces, the scoring needs to come from somewhere, and these two are the most likely candidates. Instead, take a look at the rest of the supporting cast.
Yes, O'Quinn filled in admirably the last six games, averaging 11.2 points on 65.9 percent shooting and pulling down 4.3 rebounds a night. But for his career, he's scoring 5.5 points a night on 51.4 percent shooting. He's started the last four games and played the majority of the minutes vacated by Vucevic in the frontcourt, along with Dewayne Dedmon and Andrew Nicholson.
If the frontcourt cavalry can't continue to provide the necessary toughness and timely scoring, it could present a real problem against the likes of Washington, Atlanta (twice) and Toronto over the next two weeks.
This perfect storm of terrible possibilities—none of which are far-fetched—could cripple Orlando in the coming weeks and turn that best-case 8-4 to a 4-8. That's not even taking into account continued growing pains for rookie point guard Elfrid Payton (very possible) and an injury to Harris or Oladipo, which would push this from a worst-case to a nightmare scenario. That's just something we simply cannot account for.
Likely Scenario
It may not be set in stone just yet, but eventually Vucevic will return. Despite the team's recent success in his absence, he is a necessary piece for this team going forward, and it's imperative that he be on the floor soon.
"Better. I started doing some work and getting back out there," Vucevic said Tuesday, via Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel. "So we'll see. It's just day-by-day, still. It depends on how I feel, how it reacts to different workouts and conditioning I do."
He's listed as questionable for Wednesday night's tilt against the Wizards, per Schmitz.
While Harris has been hot of late, he's really enjoying a terrific season. He's evolved into one of the most versatile young frontcourt players in basketball, and his development doesn't seem to be ending anytime soon. Oladipo, last year's Rookie of the Year runner-up, is going to continue playing solid defense and being a do-it-all contributor offensively.
On the flip side, there is a very real likelihood that Fournier continues his current slump. His first 15 games were the best stretch of his career, and it was unlikely that he would be able to keep up that pace all season. But if his shot isn't falling from outside, he'll continue to struggle.
It's understandable to have reservations banking on players who haven't produced over long stretches, which is why there is hesitation to put faith in Orlando's backup bigs should Vucevic continue to miss time.
Fortunately for Orlando, the biggest factor working in its favor this month is the schedule. Even if the Magic struggle over the next week or so, playing Philly, Charlotte and Detroit later in the month is one heck of a cure-all. That alone will prevent this team from spiraling out of control should the worst-case scenario come to fruition.
There are going to be stretches of good and bad, just like with any young, inconsistent team. Saying they are realistically going to finish the month 6-6 wouldn't be a cop-out, because it will probably be the reality.
All statistics current as of December 9 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com. Follow Stephen on Twitter: @S_Albertini
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