Philadelphia Eagles: Which Players Deserve to Make 2015 Pro Bowl?

Three-quarters of the way into their 2014 season, the Philadelphia Eagles have to be pleased with their 9-3 record. Chip Kelly has his club on pace to shatter last year’s franchise record for points scored, and with the Eagles having defeated the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day, Philly controls its own destiny for the NFC East title.

In some regards, it’s been a peculiar ride for the team. The quarterback position has been unstable, with Nick Foles struggling, getting injured and giving way to former New York Jets castoff Mark Sanchez. The duo has combined for 16 interceptions, tied for the most of any team in the league.

LeSean McCoy began the year looking like he’d lost a step, and the offensive line has been decimated with injuries. Still, there have been several standout performances from the players, and here’s an opportunity to recognize that.

The Pro Bowl no longer splits its votes up among conferences, so players will be compared head-to-head with others around the league at their position. When doing votes for the NFL’s All-Star Game, it’s important to look at a player’s statistics, his impact on the game but also his reputation around the league. Is he a well-known player who will earn the fan vote with ease?

I looked at the top players and broke down their odds to make the Pro Bowl, comparing them against head-to-head competition and assigning a percentage to their chances of being voted in. 

Offense

Running Back: LeSean McCoy

Midway through the season, it didn’t seem likely that LeSean McCoy would warrant legitimate Pro Bowl consideration. A closer look at the best running backs shows that McCoy fits right in though: 

Courtesy of Pro Football Reference

Six running backs will get the nod. By virtue of leading the National Football League in rushing yards, DeMarco Murray should get the start. Le’Veon Bell is second in both rushing yards and total yards from scrimmage.

Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles are both having fine seasons, and they are household names. Lynch leads the league in missed tackles (61), per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Charles is averaging 5.0 yards per carry (again) and is tied with Lynch for the NFL lead in total touchdowns (12).

Those four have pretty safe odds to make it, which puts McCoy up against Justin Forsett, Arian Foster and Matt Forte for one of the final two spots. Forsett is the only one of the three without a popular name, but he’s been a huge success story this year, and his 5.6 yards-per-carry average leads all regular NFL running backs.

Foster and Forte have each made multiple Pro Bowls previously. Foster has missed three games this year, but he’s still averaging over 100 rushing yards when he does play and his 11 total touchdowns are behind just Lynch and Charles.

Forte has been the focal point of the Chicago offense, even with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery in tow. At one point, he was on pace to set the single-season record for receptions; he’s still probably going to break LaDainian Tomlinson’s halfback record of 100. Forte is also third among all running backs in yards from scrimmage, which speaks to his testament as an all-around back.

But McCoy has the name. He’s coming off a season in which he led the NFL in rushing, and no one has more rushing yards over the last two seasons. McCoy is only going to play better as the season goes on, and he’s already third in rushing. A lot of voters only look at the rushing yards, and that helps McCoy’s case.

Pro Bowl Odds: 75 Percent

Wide Receiver: Jeremy Maclin

Jeremy Maclin has had a truly fantastic season. He’s shown no ill effects from the torn ACL he suffered a year ago, and he’s replaced DeSean Jackson with ease.  Here's a look at Maclin’s numbers compared to the NFL’s best wideouts to see if he’s one of the top eight receivers deserving of the Pro Bowl:

Courtesy of Pro Football Reference

Antonio Brown has been the league’s top receiver the last two seasons, and he’s got the numbers to be a lock. Demaryius Thomas, Jordy Nelson and Julio Jones play with top-tier quarterbacks, and their statistics will keep them ranked up there with the game’s elite receivers.

Dez Bryant is “only” 10th in receiving yards, but he’s tied for second in touchdown receptions and is a tremendous talent. He makes five Pro Bowl receivers.

T.Y. Hilton is as scary of a downfield threat as there is in this league, and his quarterback will give him a shot to reach the 1,600-yard mark. That’s six receivers.

Emmanuel Sanders and Golden Tate are curious situations; neither is his team’s No. 1 receiver, and each benefits greatly from his quarterback. Sanders has the numbers to stack up against any receiver in the game, but will voters take too much away because he has Peyton Manning?

Tate benefited greatly from Calvin Johnson’s injury, as he saw more than his share of targets. Tate also played well enough to keep getting the ball. He’s sixth in yards, and a year after leading the NFL in missed tackles (21), per PFF, he’s tied for second (15).

Maclin is ninth in catches, eighth in yards and seventh in touchdowns. He’s proved his value to the team as a security blanket even when Riley Cooper has struggled, and Advanced NFL Statistics rated Maclin first at his position in win probability added (2.24), tied with Tate.

Maclin will be competing with Sanders, Tate, DeAndre Hopkins, DeSean Jackson, Randall Cobb, Steve Smith and Alshon Jeffery for one of the final spots. It’s still anyone’s race, and these next few weeks will say a lot.

Don’t rule out one of the rookies sneaking into the hunt, too. Mike Evans currently leads the pack with 890 yards and eight touchdowns, but he will face competition from Kelvin Benjamin, Odell Beckham, Sammy Watkins and even a player like Jordan Matthews.

Pro Bowl Odds: 65 Percent

Offensive Line: Jason Peters

It’s not even worth doing a rundown of the offensive tackles in the NFL. Regardless of how many of them make it, you can pretty much write Cleveland's Joe Thomas and Jason Peters in with permanent ink.

Rob Carr/Getty Images

For what it’s worth, any Philadelphia Eagles fan can see the true value of Peters. His importance was only enhanced with Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce missing extensive time.

Pro Football Focus rates Peters as the second-best overall offensive tackle in the NFL, behind just Thomas. Soon he’ll have seven Pro Bowl nods on his resume and a solid chance at the Hall of Fame.

Pro Bowl Odds: 90 Percent

Defense

Defensive Line: Fletcher Cox

Playing 3-4 defensive end is a thankless job.

The sacks go to the outside linebackers, and in a world that requires you to play two-gap football, it can mean fewer tackles and little recognition outside of those sabermetric websites like Pro Football Focus or Advanced NFL Stats.

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Unless you’re J.J. Watt, you’re going to have a difficult job making the Pro Bowl. Last year, Watt and Cameron Jordan (12.5 sacks) were the only ones to make it. Not even Muhammad Wilkerson, Calais Campbell or Sheldon Richardson made it.

So Cox won’t make it with his current line—31 tackles, three sacks, one forced fumble, two fumble recoveries, one touchdown. He does rate by PFF as the fifth-best 3-4 end, behind just the aforementioned four players. Cox’s value is demonstrated in the Eagles’ team stats, as Philadelphia is second in sacks (42) and first in completion percentage allowed (57.5 percent).

Cox is in line for a big contract extension and the Eagles have to be thrilled with the way he’s played.

Pro Bowl Odds: 25 Percent

Linebacker: Connor Barwin

Connor Barwin’s impact this season has been Pro Bowl-worthy. In fact, he’s played well enough that he should be in the Defensive Player of the Year race.

Barwin has 12.5 sacks, forced two fumbles and defensed five passes.

Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

He’s hit the quarterback an additional seven times and recorded 25 hurries, per PFF. Surprisingly, he only rates as the 21st-best at his position out of 47 qualifiers, putting him in the middle of the pack.

That’s largely because he’s struggled in pass coverage; Barwin has surrendered three touchdowns in coverage—tops at his position. He’s been hit for a 134.6 passer rating, third-worst among 3-4 outside linebackers.

Fortunately, Pro Bowl voters won’t look at the pass-coverage numbers. They’ll look at the sacks. Justin Houston has 14, and he should be a lock to make it. Last year, six outside linebackers made the Pro Bowl; Houston should start easily.

Von Miller (11.5 sacks) is probably the best defensive player in the NFL other than J.J. Watt. Mario Williams (12.0 sacks) and DeMarcus Ware (10.0 sacks) are perennial Pro Bowlers enjoying great seasons, and they’re worthy of consideration.

Outside of that, there are no guarantees. Elvis Dumervil (12.5 sacks) is playing the Aldon Smith role, in that he’s racking up sacks without even starting. Khalil Mack has been PFF’s top-rated 3-4 outside linebacker for much of the season. Ryan Kerrigan (9.5 sacks) is one of the top young pass-rushers, and some 4-3 outside linebackers like Lavonte David and DeAndre Levy have to get mention.

But it’s looking like Barwin will make it, and deservedly so.

Pro Bowl Odds: 75 Percent

Safety: Malcolm Jenkins

Malcolm Jenkins began the season with a boom, registering three interceptions and a pick-six in the first four games. Since then, he hasn’t made the same plays, but he’s still been one of the NFL’s best safeties.

Pro Football Focus rates Jenkins as the 15th-best player at his position out of 86 qualifiers. Jenkins may benefit from the fact that there are no standout safeties right now.

Earl Thomas and Eric Weddle will likely make it, as well as Devin McCourty and Troy Polamalu, the latter more by name recognition. Consider Kam Chancellor, Antoine Bethea, Harrison Smith and Tashaun Gipson (six interceptions) in the mix, as well as one of the game’s more underrated safeties in George Iloka.

It’s not likely Jenkins makes it unless he gets a few more interceptions down the stretch, but he’s had a fine season.

Pro Bowl Odds: 20 Percent

Special Teams

Cody Parkey

Remember back in training camp when it looked like Alex Henery would enter the season as the starting kicker? Cody Parkey was an afterthought acquired in a trade, and he’s been near-flawless.

Parkey has missed just two kicks out of 29 attempts. He’s converted on 93.1 percent of his kicks, including all four over 50 yards. He’s also averaged an impressive 69.7 yards per kickoff.

Adam Vinatieri has been the NFL’s best kicker this season, nailing all 25 field goals, and he certainly has the name recognition. But Parkey is right in the mix, competing with Stephen Gostkowski, Justin Tucker, Dan Carpenter, Dan Bailey and Matt Bryant for the second Pro Bowl spot.

Pro Bowl Odds: 40 Percent

Darren Sproles

Here’s the list of NFL players with multiple return touchdowns this season: Darren Sproles.

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Sproles rated far and above every other returner on Pro Football Focus's list, and he’s averaging a ridiculous 14.5 yards per punt return. Barring injury, Sproles will get in.

Pro Bowl Odds: 85 Percent