Why Serge Ibaka Will Make His First All-Star Appearance This Season
Oklahoma City Thunder power forward Serge Ibaka will finally be an NBA All-Star this season.
An All-Star appearance has eluded Ibaka during his five years in the league. The Western Conference has been particularly deep up front, making it even more difficult for a still-developing 25-year-old to make the team. Last season, Ibaka showed signs of being a future star by posting the best all-around effort of his career.
He averaged 15.1 points, 8.8 rebounds (both career-highs) and 2.7 blocks per game. When you extrapolate those numbers per 100 possessions, it translates to a nightly clip of 23.1 points, 13.4 boards and 4.1 blocks.
The breakout season helped the Congo native gain media attention. ESPN.com placed him No. 25 (up 14 spots from the year before) on the site's rankings of every player in the NBA. He was also No. 19 on SI.com's "Top 100 NBA Players of 2015".
"Quite simply, Ibaka is a game changer," SI's Rob Mahoney wrote. "He's one of the best defenders in the game and, at just 24, projects to only grow more intuitive and disciplined. That value alone would earn Ibaka a favorable ranking, but what positions him in the top 20 is the intersection of defense, stout rebounding and burgeoning offensive utility.
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This year, the door is open for Ibaka to improve on 2013-14's big performance. Injuries have decimated what once looked like a championship roster in Oklahoma City, leaving Ibaka as one of its few proven commodities.
That, among other reasons, is why Ibaka will make his first NBA All-Star appearance this season.
Opportunity
Opportunity has knocked twice for Ibaka already this season. Kevin Love, a three-time All-Star with the Minnesota Timberwolves, is now playing in the Eastern Conference with the Cleveland Cavaliers. That's one less familiar face standing in Ibaka's way this year.
Last season, the West had seven frontcourt members on their All-Star team: Love, Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis, LaMarcus Aldridge, Dwight Howard, Dirk Nowitzki and Ibaka's Thunder teammate, Kevin Durant.
With Love gone, there are three potential candidates to fill that spot. Sacramento Kings center DeMarcus Cousins has established himself as one of the best young big men in the game. He averaged 22.7 points, 11.7 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game last season.
San Antonio Spurs legend Tim Duncan is always a threat to sneak on to an All-Star roster. Even at 38 years old, he's still a formidable presence up front.
Then, there's Ibaka. The Thunder forward has improved every year since entering the league in 2008. He has the potential to put up gaudy all-around numbers, but he's never had his chance to shine in Oklahoma City.
Until now.
With Durant out until December (maybe longer), the Thunder will need to rely on Ibaka more than they have in past seasons. Beyond Westbrook, Ibaka is the only other option in the team's projected starting lineup that can be perceived as a scoring threat.
Center Steven Adams and guard/forward Andre Roberson are still raw offensively. Small forward Perry Jones hasn't shown much in his first two years in the league. That means more touches for Ibaka, as the team tries to lighten the scoring load on Westbrook's shoulders.
For the first time in his career, Ibaka gets to be the No. 2 option in Oklahoma City for an extended period of time. According to Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman, Durant isn't going to rush himself back from foot surgery.
Here's another factor that may work in Ibaka's favor. Let's say Durant comes back on time and plays well enough to earn an All-Star nod. Why would he waste a chance to rest his surgically-repaired foot by playing in an exhibition game of zero consequence? Why wouldn't he opt to sit out, so that another spot can open up for his teammate that helped carry the water while Durant was out? Isn't being healthy for a playoff run more important than catching lob passes in a glorified pickup game?
Regardless, the stage is set for Ibaka to have a strong first half. Even if Duncan or Cousins fills Love's spot, there's still a good chance that Ibaka beats out an aging player like Nowitzki or fills in for the injured Durant.
Offensive Progress
Now that Durant and Anthony Morrow (out four-to-six weeks with an MCL sprain, per Mayberry) are sidelined, who do you think is the Oklahoma City Thunder's best three-point threat?
That's right. It's Serge Ibaka.
Ibaka shot 38.3 percent from behind the arc last season. He went 3-for-6 from deep in the three games he played in the preseason. His impressive range has caught the eye of head coach Scott Brooks, per USA Today's Jacob Unruh:
"He's one of the best midrange shooters, and I thought last year he even showed that he's going to make corner threes," Brooks said. "Even at the end of the year he hit a couple straight-ahead threes. I think as his game continues to evolve, he's going to be able to do that more.
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Here's a look at Ibaka's shot chart from last season, courtesy of Vorped.com. While he didn't take a ton of shots outside of the paint, he still converted a decent amount of his jumpers.
For further proof of the big man's prowess on the perimeter, this is a video of every trifecta Ibaka knocked down during the 2013-14 regular season (all 23 of them). His form is decent for a guy still coming along offensively, and he's found a real comfort zone shooting from the corner.
The three-ball should become an even bigger part of Ibaka's arsenal this season. With his confidence growing and the team lacking proven shooters, it would make sense for the team to give him the green light from downtown more often.
Ibaka will also be a weapon in pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop situations, as evidenced by this highlight reel. In the beginning of the clip, Ibaka delivers the screen, then sets up around the free-throw line to shoot.
As the roll man, Ibaka is so quick getting to the basket. When he gets the ball in the paint, the defense doesn't have enough time to hinder the shot. As a result, Ibaka either finishes with a nasty dunk or gets an easy lay-up.
With the Thunder's offense so short-handed, Ibaka's usage rate should go up from the 19.8 percent he posted last season. That, combined with his ability to score in so many different ways, should lead to another career year in scoring.
For the bulk of his career, defense has been Ibaka's calling card. He's led the league in total blocks in each of the past four seasons. According to 82games.com, opponents converted 48.4 percent of their attempts against Ibaka.
There are few big men in the Western Conference that can match Ibaka's defensive efforts. Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan are a few of the names that can compete in that category, but the list pretty much stops there.
When you add Ibaka's defensive prowess to the potential increase in his offensive numbers, you get one of the most complete big men in basketball. According to BasketballReference.com, Ibaka has a projected 2014-15 stat line of 16 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.2 blocks. The site also expects him to shoot 54.8 percent from the field, including 37.7 percent from three.
Those numbers might be a bit modest. From a scoring standpoint, those projections have Ibaka improving by less than a point from last season. With the increased touches stemming from Durant's absence and his continued development, he could easily flirt with 18-20 points per game.
Ibaka's work on the glass should continue to trend upward, as it has in each of the last three seasons. When you add those factors along with his standing as arguably the best shot-blocker in basketball, he has a strong case for being an All-Star this season.
He's not a sexy enough name to start over the likes of Howard or Griffin, but his all-around excellence will get to the point where the need for his presence on the roster can't be denied.
All statistics courtesy of BasketballReference.com, unless otherwise noted.
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