Toronto Raptors 2014-15 Season Preview: Roster Breakdown, Win-Loss Prediction
What began as a rebuilding year with hopes of landing a top prospect in the next draft wound up being one of the most successful and inspiring seasons the Toronto Raptors have ever had.
A 6-12 start turned into a 42-22 finish after the team traded away their highest-paid player and leading scorer, Rudy Gay, to the Sacramento Kings. Patrick Patterson and Greivis Vasquez came aboard and shored up depth off the bench, while DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry each saw their roles within the offense grow larger and larger.
The Raptors went on to win their second Atlantic Division title in franchise history and came within one layup of knocking off the Brooklyn Nets in the opening round of the NBA playoffs. It was proof in the pudding that their magical run was by no means a fluke. They hung in there with a veteran Nets squad and pushed them to the limit in a competitive seven-game series.
Their 2013-14 season opened up a lot of eyes and made the rest of the league aware that basketball north of the border is stronger than it's ever been. The "We The North" movement proved that fans in the city and around the country were willing to come out and show their support to a group of guys who deserved their loyalty and respect.
The big question now is whether or not the Raptors can carry over their momentum and continue their rise up the standings in the Eastern Conference. They won't be able to sneak up on teams like they did a season ago; the target on their backs is getting wider and wider with each passing day.
In "Jurassic Park," the hunters have become the hunted.
Is Jonas Valanciunas Ready to Take On More Responsibility?
It's fitting that Valanciunas bulked up over the offseason, because he's going to need to use that extra muscle to shoulder more of the load in the Raptors' game plan once the regular season begins.
What the coaching staff wants more than anything from their 22-year-old center is consistency on defense and the assertiveness to be be in the right spot at the right time, per Eric Koreen of the National Post.
“One of the big focuses for us to advance in the playoffs is that he’s got to be the best rim protector—block shots, [legal] vertical [jumps] and being able to get over to that weak side early on any [dribble] penetration,” said Bill Bayno, the Raptors assistant coach who has worked extensively with Valanciunas. “At times he was great at it last year. ... But we want it every night, 82 games.”
Bayno even went as far as to say that Valanciunas should be working toward elite status as a post defender, using Pacers center Roy Hibbert as an example.
"We want him to be No. 1 in the NBA. We want that as a goal. Right now, [Pacers centre Roy] Hibbert is the best. We want him chasing Hibbert. If he comes up a little short, hopefully he’s going to be elite, one of the top five in the league.”
What was really troubling last season was how much better opposing teams were when Valanciunas was on the bench. Opponents had an offensive rating of 106.9 when he played, which dropped to 103.3 when he sat.
His teammates would also like to see Valanciunas get the ball more in the post and try to create shot opportunities around the basket. As John Schuhmann of NBA.com notes, "the Raptors attempted only 27.6 percent of their shots from the restricted area, the lowest rate in the league."
As the man bringing the ball up the floor, Lowry will look to get Valanciunas into a groove early in games so that the offense doesn't become so one-dimensional, per Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun.
“We have to start games off (feeding Valanciunas in the post), we need him, we’re going to put some pressure on him to score the ball for us,” Lowry said. “We can’t just do all guard-oriented types of things. We have to make sure he’s more involved and have to put a little pressure on him to score the ball.”
Spending his summer working with a running and a conditioning coach, participating in the FIBA World Cup with Lithuania and being taught by NBA Hall of Famer Hakeem Olajuwon all earn gold stars for Valanciunas. Now it's just a matter of reaping the benefits of his hard work and evolving into a more formidable force for the Raptors.
Best Five
PG: Kyle Lowry, SG DeMar DeRozan, SF Terrence Ross, PF Amir Johnson, C Jonas Valanciunas
The Raptors' starting lineup is back intact with an All-Star shooting guard, a paid-and-made floor general running the point, two third-year up-and-comers in the frontcourt and a 10-year veteran at power forward who is only 27 years old.
| Name | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Steals | PER |
| Kyle Lowry | 36.2 | 17.9 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 1.5 | 20.1 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 38.2 | 22.7 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 18.4 |
| Terrence Ross | 26.7 | 10.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 12.0 |
| Amir Johnson | 28.8 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 15.4 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | 28.2 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 16.1 |
Head coach Dwane Casey played this lineup a total of 717.2 minutes, per 82games.com. Although two-guard lineups involving Lowry and Vasquez were sometimes used late in games to help with ball distribution and to improve handling, Casey relied on these five core guys the most.
It was their collective contributions that helped the Raptors be the only team in the Eastern Conference to rank in the top 10 in both offensive (105.8) and defensive (102.4) efficiency, per ESPN.com.
They also had good fortune in the health department, missing just 11 games due to injury combined. It's hard to buy into that number staying the same, but should any starter need to miss some time, there is a strong second unit behind him to pick up the slack.
Youth Movement: Bruno Caboclo
You can't get any younger than a 19-year-old international prospect whom ESPN's Fran Fraschilla proclaimed to be "two years away from two years away" on draft night (h/t HoopsHype).
A luxury the Raptors have going for them as it pertains to Bruno Caboclo is the lack of urgency to play him. There is a slew of more proven options ahead of him on the depth chart, thus giving the coaching staff more time to ease him into the NBA game.
So far, so good. In limited preseason minutes, Caboclo has shown that his development might not take as long as some had originally predicted, as he's averaging 4.3 points on 37.5 percent shooting from the field.
He's rejected shots, hit three-pointers and used his gargantuan wingspan to steal the basketball. The diversity in his game is promising, although he still lacks the on-court confidence necessary to integrate himself into the rotation.
Caboclo has had moments where he looked utterly lost on offense, standing around the perimeter with little grasp of what was going on around him. That will come in time, though.
The best-case scenario for his 2014-15 season would be a long stint in the NBA D-League with the Fort Wayne Mad Ants, the Raptors' affiliate. If the team can bring him up and give him spot minutes in garbage time here and there, that would be perfect too.
Caboclo is aware of the journey that lies ahead of him, but as Doug Smith of The Toronto Star points out, he's proud of how far he's already come since arriving in Toronto.
“I’m more comfortable, yes. Shooting, I am more fast, more strong, just better everywhere,” he said. “I am learning the game, the language — it’s coming a little bit, that’s all.”
Team Award Predictions
Most Valuable Player: Kyle Lowry
What Lowry pulled off last season by doing a complete 180-degree turn with his attitude and salvaging his reputation with All-Star numbers and a hard-nosed style of play was simply remarkable.
He put up career highs in points, rebounds and assists and earned every last dollar of his new four-year, $48 million contract.
A motivated Lowry is a scary Lowry. Sure, he had the extra incentive being in a contract year and wanting to be compensated fairly, but that's not enough to quench his thirst.
It's respect that he desires now, as well as doing his part in repairing the Raptors' reputation like he did his own.
Biggest Surprise: Lou Williams
The firepower that Williams will bring to the second unit as an offensive-minded guard will drag the Raptors out of the basement in terms of bench scoring.
That group could only muster 26.7 points per game, finishing 27th in the NBA according to HoopsStats.com.
His 10.4 points per game last season with the Atlanta Hawks were his lowest since 2006-07 as a Philadelphia 76er. To be fair, his recovery from an ACL injury had a lot to do with it.
In a new system with more opportunities to play, Williams will be rejuvenated and find his Midas touch scoring the basketball.
Just don't ask him to defend.
Most Likely to Be Traded: Landry Fields
It's probably best to let Landry himself explain to you the situation he finds himself in with his asinine (through no fault of his own) contract, his slew of injuries and lack of minutes, per Sportsnet's Eric Smith:
"There have definitely been times that I’ve thought about the contract and you look at the production and it doesn’t quite add up,” he said. “But at the end of the day, I didn’t give myself this contract. The Raptors came and took a beautiful, wonderful chance that I’m forever going to be grateful for. ... Whatever I can do for this team is what I’m going to do. Some people will never understand that but I have to be okay with that, otherwise I’ll send myself into a mental frenzy.
"
Even as an expiring deal of $8.5 million, it's going to be difficult to convince another team to gamble on a wing player who can't shoot and can't stay healthy.
You could also throw Amir into the conversation, although I'd prefer to not have a horde of angry Raptors supporters at my doorstep with flaming torches and pitchforks.
The "Matt Bonner Award" for Uber-Popularity off the Bench: Bruno Caboclo
His name will echo through the rafters on a nightly basis as if he had won the city back-to-back NBA titles in a previous life.
Most Overplayed Drake Song at Air Canada Centre: "Trophies"
With Drake as the global ambassador for the franchise, every other song on game night has to feature him in some capacity.
When the Dust Settles.....
Anything less than a postseason series victory will be looked at as a disappointment for the Raptors.
They now have a taste of the trials and tribulations that come with playoff basketball and what it's going to take to get over the proverbial hump. They should be primed and ready for what's to come at the end of April and into May.
What won't play in their favor is how improved the Eastern Conference has become in just a few short months. LeBron James and Kevin Love are with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Pau Gasol has signed on with the Chicago Bulls and former Pacer guard Lance Stephenson is ready to prove his doubters wrong with the Charlotte Hornets.
That doesn't even take into account several key players who will be making their return from injury like former NBA Most Valuable Player Derrick Rose and two-time All-Star Al Horford.
It will be important for the team to clinch home-court advantage once again and have the opposition work their way through the Air Canada Centre to advance. The noise level in that building in the Brooklyn series was deafening.
Fifty wins is a conservative estimate considering where the Raptors finished last year. Had the trade with Sacramento been made prior to the season, perhaps the team would have topped that mark earlier.
Odds Shark is roughly in the same ballpark, pegging Toronto's win total at 49.5. Even if they fall short of that mark and win somewhere between 45-49 games, that should easily suffice.
What matters most is the playoffs, namely the Raptors getting out of the first round for the first time since 2000-01.
Final Record: 50-32, No. 3 seed in Eastern Conference
Christopher Walder is considered by many to be the "songbird of his generation" and the greatest center to have never played professional, collegiate, high school, house league or pickup basketball. His work has been published on Bleacher Report, SB Nation, Sports Illustrated, FanSided and several other online outlets. You may follow him on Twitter at @WalderSports.
Unless noted otherwise, all statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or ESPN.com.
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