30 Overreactions to the 2026 NBA Offseason
Every NBA offseason has a different theme to it.
This year's was a fun one: There was never a dull moment.
Just when you thought you might have all the splashes accounted for, something else would make a splash and send the basketball world into another reshuffling.
With action like this, imaginations are running wild about what all of this activity (or, in certain cases, inactivity) might mean for the short- and long-term future.
We can only guesstimate how things will go, which leads to a lot of overreactions. Like, say, one for all 30 teams.
Atlanta Hawks
1 of 30
Overreaction: The NBA has a new best defense.
The Hawks had last season's 10th-best defense (fifth-best after Trae Young played his final game in Atlanta). This summer, they added 2024-25 All-Defensive first-teamer Lu Dort and fellow former shape-shifting member of the Oklahoma City Thunder Aaron Wiggins.
Couple them with what was already a wealth of defensive talent, and you're now looking at the league's stingiest defense, right?
Maybe, but let's see it in action before making such a definitive declaration. The Hawks should be all kinds of disruptive on defense. Sure, the Thunder still have a pretty terrific collection of stoppers, the San Antonio Spurs have that 7-foot-something alien everyone keeps talking about, and the Detroit Pistons employ a host of long-limbed, physical defenders.
The Hawks look poised to rank among the league's best defenses, but crowning them No. 1 already is an unnecessary rush to judgment.
Boston Celtics
2 of 30
Overreaction: The window has closed.
The Celtics shattered expectations with a 56-win effort last season, and then promptly traded away the MVP candidate spawned during the campaign (Jaylen Brown, who landed sixth in MVP voting and second team All-NBA) for pennies on the dollar. Jayson Tatum is suddenly without a co-star, and that probably means Boston is out of the title race—for now.
The Celtics lack the high-end star power to contend for the crown right now, but they might only be an upgrade or two to rejoining the heavyweight contender ranks.
And since they have some wiggle room—a handful of first-round picks to throw around, some monster contracts coming off the books over the next few summers—they just might make those additions before the 28-year-old Tatum ages out of his prime.
Brooklyn Nets
3 of 30
Overreaction: They'll have the NBA's best backcourt in five years or less.
Those who kept an eye on Brooklyn's summer league squads surely had a chance to overindulge on optimism surrounding this year's No. 6 pick Mikel Brown Jr. and last year's No. 8 pick Egor Dëmin.
Between the former's flashy play style and the latter's ability to utilize his added muscle, they raised expectations by the minute and even gained a shared nickname along the way.
Excitement is fine (and fully warranted), but it still needs to stay within reason. This guard group has an undeniable chance to be awesome, but it remains only a possibility. Dëmin averaged 10.3 points on 39.9 percent shooting as a rookie, and Brown shot 41 percent during his lone season of college ball.
Their individual paths to stardom are steep.
Charlotte Hornets
4 of 30
Overreaction: They will regret dismantling their core.
The Hornets had a wholly ridiculous January to April stretch in which they went 33-16 with the league's best net rating (plus-10.5). But they just snatched the wind from their own sails by jettisoning two key contributors (LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges) in offseason trades.
And guess what? It was the right call. Ball, a walking injury risk with less than stellar play-style reviews, brought back Naz Reid, an unprotected first-round pick, three first-round swaps and three second-round picks.
Bridges, a volume scorer with a lot of hollow stats, somehow delivered an unprotected future first. The value was impossible to pass up, and they can now grow a more accommodating and sustainable core around cornerstones Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller.
Chicago Bulls
5 of 30
Overreaction: They blew their cap space on nothing.
This was supposed to be a transformational summer for the Bulls, and in certain ways, it was. Their front office got an overdue overhaul, and the draft lottery delivered a pair of possible building blocks (No. 4 pick Caleb Wilson and No. 15 pick Dailyn Swain). But the gobs of cap space they possessed wound up delivering only Nic Claxton, Norman Powell and Zach Collins (and hopes of a late Bennedict Mathurin addition). Yikes, right?
Well, sort of, but they had to find someone to man the middle and landed a perfectly suitable solution with the 27-year-old Claxton. And they needed someone to help pick up the scoring slack, and Powell, a 21-plus-point scorer the past two seasons, should be up to that challenge. Neither may stick around Chicago long, but that's probably the point—lean on the vets now as their prospects find their footing and then flip those players for more long-term assets when the youth is ready to take over.
Cleveland Cavaliers
6 of 30
Overreaction: They finally cracked the code at small forward.
Ever since Cleveland brought Donovan Mitchell to town, this organization has chased one possible solution at small forward after the next. Could that carousel finally stop spinning? That's surely the hope after this front office burned its remaining draft assets to be crowned surprise winners of the Peyton Watson sweepstakes.
This had to be encouraging, if only to see Cleveland do something in response to the many splashes made by fellow East elites. That said, it's not like Watson's arrival guarantees the Cavs finally have their missing piece at the 3. He is a stingy, disruptive defender, but his offense is very much a work in progress.
If he can't crank up the three-point volume while sustaining his newfound efficiency, it could be hard for this offense to breathe when he's slotting alongside Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
Dallas Mavericks
7 of 30
Overreaction: This roster makes no sense.
The Mavericks' roster reads like it's stuck between two eras—probably because it is.
Kyrie Irving leads a veteran core that was initially brought together to give Luka Dončić a championship chance. Meanwhile, a young nucleus is starting to take shape around 2025 top pick Cooper Flagg. This group is also light on ball-handlers and heavier than it needs to be with forwards.
And yet, this might somehow be the right spot for the Mavericks at the moment. They're still figuring things out with Flagg, like how he'll fare alongside an established star like Irving (who missed all of last season while rehabbing a torn ACL).
They're also in no rush to move veterans (other than perhaps Klay Thompson), since they could try to compete with them first, knowing they'll always maintain trade value.
Denver Nuggets
8 of 30
Overreaction: They're giving Nikola Jokić reasons to consider leaving.
Setting aside any sentimental attachments or the desire to complete a career with one franchise, what is the great argument for Jokić recommitting to Denver? The Nuggets are still a really good team, but is greatness a legitimate possibility? They've won two total playoff series in the three seasons since their 2023 title run, and their already compromised defense now must find a way to proceed without Peyton Watson.
All of this feels ominous, yet none of it really matters unless Jokić decides it does. And so far, nothing has changed the notion that he plans to continue his career in Denver. (Well, nothing other than the dreams of hopeful poachers.) The Nuggets should be careful about taking his presence for granted, but it hardly sounds like he is scanning for the exits.
Detroit Pistons
9 of 30
Overreaction: Cade Cunningham's co-star isn't coming.
The rumor mill connected the Pistons to some fascinating scenarios this summer, but nothing major materialized. Labeling their offseason dud is a bit harsh—John Collins can pile up points, and Isaiah Joe's shooting scratches a big itch—but it's certainly disappointing when weighed against some of those initial expectations, especially when nothing has been figured out with Jalen Duren yet.
This all leaves Cunningham without the co-star he seemingly needs to make a real championship push. Detroit will have more chances, though. If the Pistons can't develop that player (maybe Duren or Ausar Thompson), they'll still have the assets needed to go pursue a needle-mover in a trade.
Golden State Warriors
10 of 30
Overreaction: They failed Stephen Curry.
As shepherds of Curry's once-in-a-lifetime career, the Warriors have some responsibility for ensuring he has a chance to play for something of significance. So, when they're effectively running back a 45-loss roster for what will be his age-38 season, it sure feels like a franchise-wide failure.
Maybe history will remember it as such, but Golden State still has a chance to field a more formidable supporting cast around him. It'll just take some time to make that happen. The Warriors have draft capital to throw around and navigable paths toward big-time financial flexibility, plus a potential difference-maker on the mend in Jimmy Butler, so things aren't nearly as dire as they may initially appear.
Houston Rockets
11 of 30
Overreaction: Nothing has changed.
After following consecutive 52-win campaigns with first-round exits, the Rockets appeared open for anything this summer. They gave potential trade partners the impression that Amen Thompson was their "only near untouchable," per Yahoo Sports' Kelly Iko, suggesting their roster might look dramatically different for the 2026-27 season.
When considering the potential activity, this feels a lot closer to status quo. This is not, however, a stationary squad. Fred VanVleet is back, Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanović have joined the party and the young core has had another offseason of development. Splash-less summer or not, it's still a collective stock up for Space City.
Indiana Pacers
12 of 30
Overreaction: A sleepy summer has them set up for disappointment.
Tyrese Haliburton has wondered aloud why the league isn't treating his return from a torn Achilles as a bigger deal. Clearly, expectations in the Circle City are enormous with the franchise floor general back and Ivica Zubac manning the middle.
You wonder whether expectations will be too high, though, given all that has changed in the East since Indiana booked that surprise trip to the 2025 NBA Finals.
When players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James and (presumably) Kawhi Leonard are moving around, that activity tends to overshadow the return of a small-market's star. But Haliburton might be onto something.
This offense hums when he's at the helm, and Zubac can be a stabilizer at center. The Pacers didn't need a busy summer to drum up excitement (at least internally) around their chances for the upcoming campaign.
Los Angeles Clippers
13 of 30
Overreaction: Keaton Wagler was exposed in Summer League.
With the Clippers in the process of closing out the Kawhi Leonard chapter, Wagler, their No. 5 pick, is prominently positioned for whatever comes next. So, he had plenty of eyeballs on him at summer league, and he didn't exactly thrive under the spotlight. He was an inefficient scorer and an ineffective contributor in virtually every other category.
It was disappointing to see. It was also potentially meaningless. Las Vegas has a history of fooling the hoops world with mirages. And Wagler, who impacts the game more with feel than freakish physical tools, never figured to thrive in that environment. You'd still prefer to see him star at summer league, but overreacting to the fact he didn't is pointless.
Los Angeles Lakers
14 of 30
Overreaction: They just pumped all of their assets into a Play-In roster.
The Lakers prioritized a new contract for Austin Reaves and finding an impact center this offseason. They managed to check both boxes, but they paid an exorbitant cost to do it: $184.8 million for Reaves, and then two first-round picks and two first-round pick swaps for the right to give Walker Kessler $129.5 million.
Luka Dončić at least seems on board with the moves, but there isn't an obvious way for L.A. to wiggle out of this should things run awry.
And maybe that's OK. Dončić plus a second scorer and shot-creator has proved an awful potent combo in the past. Dončić plus an impact center has typically delivered results, too. If L.A. works some developmental magic on the likes of Cameron Carr, Adou Thiero and Quentin Grimes, this roster could surprise sooner than later.
Memphis Grizzlies
15 of 30
Overreaction: Cameron Boozer should've been the No. 1 pick.
Did anyone catch Boozer's run with the summer-league Grizzlies? You might still be cleaning up drool puddles if you did. He was any and everything he was billed to be: versatile, productive, efficient and absolutely impactful on winning.
So, should he be cemented on way-too-early re-draft boards now? Nope. The skills he showed in summer league were never questioned; any knocks were always tied to the fact he lagged behind both AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson in terms of physical tools, which is clearly still the case. Boozer might already have the highest floor of the three, but teams holding the No. 1 pick are seeking more than safety.
Miami Heat
16 of 30
Overreaction: Landing a whale unlocks immediate championship possibilities.
For years, the Heat waited for this very opportunity—not simply landing a superstar, but getting Giannis freakin' Antetokounmpo. And given how successful they'd managed to be in some of those superstar-less seasons, his addition has to make them an immediate factor in the championship chase, right?
Well, you never want to rule out anything involving a player this talented, but this roster has question marks all around the Antetokounmpo-Bam Adebayo combo (which has its own logistical concerns with spacing). Throw in the rising tides of a fully loaded East, and Miami isn't guaranteed a top-six seed, much less a legitimate shot at winning it all.
Milwaukee Bucks
17 of 30
Overreaction: They botched the Giannis Antetokounmpo blockbuster.
By the time the Bucks got around to trading away Antetokounmpo, he was entrenched as the best player in franchise history. And through that lens, Milwaukee's return package—Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakučionis, three firsts, a swap and a second—might seem so underwhelming to make you think the Bucks really botched this.
They didn't. Or they didn't botch it this offseason, at least. Teams weren't beating that offer (especially if Milwaukee thinks the homegrown Herro is a keeper) for a 31-year-old with shooting limitations, contract uncertainty and some recent injury trouble. The Bucks just needed to rip this Band-Aid off sooner. Everyone outside of Milwaukee could see this coming and delaying the inevitable denied this club what could have been a truly ridiculous collection of incoming assets.
Minnesota Timberwolves
18 of 30
Overreaction: Anthony Edwards has a championship chance now.
The Wolves needed more consistent offensive support for Edwards and just found it in LaMelo Ball, a nightly 20-point, 10-assist threat with deep shooting range, two-steps-ahead passing vision and gobs of creativity. This was someone whom Minnesota's decision-makers "had long believed was the ideal backcourt running mate for Anthony Edwards," per The Athletic's Jon Krawczynski.
The Wolves' working theory is a fun one. It's also risky as heck. Minnesota effectively drained its asset pool and changed identities for an offense-leaning (or offense-only) player who owns a career 41.8 field-goal percentage and has reached the playoffs exactly zero times. Oh, and he has played fewer than 52 games in four of his six seasons. It would be objectively awesome if this works, but the list of reasons to believe it won't is not a short one.
New Orleans Pelicans
19 of 30
Overreaction: They missed their window to reset.
Sellers were in top demand this offseason as there weren't enough impact players to satiate the many buyers. Shouldn't the Pelicans have used that to their advantage? Trey Murphy III and Herbert Jones should've had rich markets, and Zion Williamson might've even been movable after making 60-plus appearances for the second time in the last three seasons.
For whatever reason, though, the stars never aligned on a swap. Maybe that was a major misfire by New Orleans, but executive vice president of basketball operations Joe Dumars told NOLA.com's Rod Walker the inactivity was "not from a lack of effort or us deciding we didn't want to do anything." The Pelicans seemingly just didn't back down from the prices they set, and there's a chance their patience will be rewarded the next time trade season gets rolling.
New York Knicks
20 of 30
Overreaction: Their roster won't be the same without Mitchell Robinson.
It could be ages before the Knicks wind up with a player as big and bouncy as Robinson. The 7-foot rim-runner may not have been the most durable player around, but he always made his presence felt in small doses. Despite often operating opposite New York's stacked starting lineup, Robinson managed to post a plus-2.6 net differential.
New York will miss Robinson's paint presence and anti-gravity ups, but not in a this-club-can't-repeat kind of way. The Knicks gave him fewer than 20 minutes in the regular season and trimmed that to less than 14 in the playoffs, so they're only filling a niche role. And Andre Drummond should be a serviceable replacement, especially on a minimum contract.
Oklahoma City Thunder
21 of 30
Overreaction: Dynasties are impossible in the NBA's economic environment.
The Thunder won 132 regular-season games and six playoff series over the past two seasons. They traded away three rotation regulars over the offseason, and not to accommodate newcomers but rather to make the budget more manageable. Such is life under this collective bargaining agreement.
Or is it? Because these maneuvers weren't apron-related. As The Athletic's Fred Katz relayed, "In the league's third-smallest market, owner Clay Bennett is sticking to a budget."
Other organizations won't give themselves the same restrictions, meaning their budgets could certainly stretch farther than this, especially if doing so meant keeping a potential dynasty together.
Orlando Magic
22 of 30
Overreaction: They're denying the reality of their wing tandem.
The Magic just played their fourth season with both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner on the wing. They even propped up that pairing with a bold (and budget-busting) trade for Desmond Bane. Yet, they're still awaiting the first playoff series win of the Banchero-Wagner era. Perhaps because this twosome just doesn't work.
But the Magic are right for thinking it's too soon to make that call. A coaching change could help better align the puzzle pieces. And there are still ways to tweak this core without demolishing the foundation. Teams rarely improve by trading their best players away.
Philadelphia 76ers
23 of 30
Overreaction: This offense has too many mouths to feed.
Every time a superteam is spawned, the same concern rises shortly thereafter: There's only one basketball to go around. As if that reality doesn't exist for every other team in the Association.
Will it be simple to satisfy all four of LeBron James, Jaylen Brown, Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid? Nope—but that's a problem that just about every other franchise would love to try tackling.
"Talking to (head coach Nick Nurse), he's excited. It's just like a kid in a candy store," Sixers president of basketball operations Mike Gansey told reporters. "He's like, 'How are we going to put this thing together and see if it works?'"
When that one basketball goes around, it will often find its way to either a former MVP or a current All-NBA honoree. If Philly can strike the right balance, this offense should be silly.
Phoenix Suns
24 of 30
Overreaction: Devin Booker still has no help.
The Suns stripped themselves of a Booker co-star when they traded Kevin Durant last offseason. At this rate, it doesn't feel like they're even searching for one. When they're adding talent, it's of the role-playing variety: Miles Bridges as a scoring forward, Luke Kennard as a net-shredder, Koa Peat as a forceful dot-connector.
Maybe this all means the whole outpaces the sum of the parts again. Phoenix overpaid for Bridges, but it did have a void to fill at power forward. It signed a lot of sensible contracts, which should remain movable if a direction change is needed. And things aren't even helpless on the co-star front, as big developmental leaps could still be in front of Jalen Green and Khaman Maluach, and the regression that was supposed to hit Dillon Brooks in the playoffs never came close to materializing.
Portland Trail Blazers
25 of 30
Overreaction: Talent trumps team needs.
The Blazers saw an offer they couldn't refuse. That's the only rationale that makes sense behind their summer swap of Jerami Grant and Kris Murray for Ja Morant. And honestly, that reasoning is sound. It's sort of a no-risk, all-reward wager on a two-time All-Star who just turned 27. In a vacuum, there's a lot to love.
Basketball teams don't play in a vacuum, though, and this is one situation where the old there's only one ball thing feels legitimately worrisome. How does a roster simultaneously squeeze the most out of Morant, Damian Lillard, Scoot Henderson and Jrue Holiday? And how does that guard group not totally torpedo the on-ball opportunities for All-Star swingman Deni Avdija? Even in a positionless league, there are too many cooks in this kitchen.
Sacramento Kings
26 of 30
Overreaction: Darius Acuff Jr. is doomed.
Summer league was rough for Acuff. His scoring volume reached an acceptable level, but that was it for positives. His efficiency underwhelmed, his playmaking unraveled amid a sea of turnovers and his defense lived up to its unfavorable billing.
None of that necessarily matters, though. Acuff handled a heavy responsibility list as a teenager in a chaotic environment. Things going well may have been more surprising than these struggles.
As far as there are worries with Acuff, who won't turn 20 until November, they hinge more around his chances of germinating in what has been, shall we say, less than fruitful soil in Sacramento.
San Antonio Spurs
27 of 30
Overreaction: De'Aaron Fox has got to go.
The NBA Finals put the worst kind of spotlight onto Fox. He not only struggled in major moments, he also saw the player right behind him on the depth chart, last summer's No. 2 pick Dylan Harper, succeed in such a way that everyone wondered why he wasn't getting more minutes. The worst read on the situation painted Fox as a $221.7 million obstacle in San Antonio's path.
That's not at all how the Spurs see it, though. General manager Brian Wright expressed "the ultimate faith in De'Aaron," and The Athletic's Jared Weiss relayed that "multiple team and league sources said the Spurs still see Fox as a critical piece of the team's future." This is how San Antonio needs to handle this, since it has enough floor time and touches to get the best out of its three-headed monster in the backcourt, and it needs the on-court organization Fox offers.
Toronto Raptors
28 of 30
Overreaction: Summer League proved Allen Graves was a steal.
Graves was a curiosity in college, a reserve on a mid-major with some of the best analytics around. Toronto snatched him up with this summer's 19th pick, and he immediately showcased his versatility on the summer circuit: 16.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.3 steals across four contests.
It was a proof-of-concept performance for everyone who saw him as a potential Swiss Army knife.
It was also maybe indicative of nothing for his future. His lack of athleticism could be a real challenge against actual NBA defenders, and his outside shooting still has to prove sustainable with a significant increase in volume.
This isn't to say Toronto fans should abandon hope. It's just a reminder that those hopes are nothing more than that at this stage.
Utah Jazz
29 of 30
Overreaction: Darryn Peterson isn't a playmaker.
Peterson's improvement as a playmaker in high school played a big part in his standing as a top 2026 draft prospect. Then, he went to Kansas and totaled exactly as many turnovers as assists (38 each) in 24 games. Next, he technically fared slightly better at Sacramento—26 assists against 24 turnovers in five outings.
This could be a cause for major concern, but it's too early to really raise that alarm. For one, he could star without a ton of passing production as an all-purpose shotmaker in a multi-distributor offense. Second, he showed advanced passing reads as a prep star, and he might just need better health and superior scoring help around him to get back into that bag.
Washington Wizards
30 of 30
Overreaction: The rebuild is complete.
After three straight seasons with 64-plus losses, the Wizards are putting their losing ways behind them. Washington has organically grown a compelling young core and then supplemented it with established stars (Trae Young, Anthony Davis) and the No. 1 pick in a highly celebrated draft (AJ Dybantsa).
The Wizards even brought back Khris Middleton and turned their attention toward DeMar DeRozan after a failed courtship of Russell Westbrook.
Clearly, Washington thinks it is ready to turn the corner. A bit of brake-pumping feels warranted. Young is a one-way contributor, Davis can't stay on the court (and isn't a lock to stick around) and this young nucleus has won nothing at this level.
The future is bright—there's no denying that—but Washington may not be out of the woods just yet.
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