
Doug Baldwin Is a Fantasy Stud for Seahawks After Percy Harvin Trade
Sometimes, the best thing that can happen to a player's fantasy value is an injury or trade toof another player. For anyone who already owns Doug Baldwin, you should be grinning from ear to ear after the Seattle Seahawks' shocking move to dump Percy Harvin.
In case you haven't heard, Jay Glazer of Fox Sports reported on Friday that Harvin was traded to the New York Jets for a conditional draft pick:
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While the obvious reaction was how this move affected the Jets and the futures of head coach Rex Ryan and general manager John Idzik, the other side of the equation is how this changes the dynamic of Seattle's offense and what it does for quarterback Russell Wilson.
Baldwin was vocal with his criticisms about Seattle's offense after last week's loss against the Dallas Cowboys. He had a confrontation with Wilson on the sidelines during the game then said this to reporters in the locker room, via Larry Stone of The Seattle Times:
"The offense can’t (bleeping) move the ball. We’ve got too much (bleeping) talent over here not to be moving the ball.
It’s not on Russ. I’m just saying, in general, our offense, we’re just too (bleeping) good not to be moving the ball down the field. It’s a collaborative thing. We’ve all got to pitch in and do our part. We’ve all got to do better.
"
Now, with Harvin out of the picture, the Seahawks are taking the necessary steps toward fixing their offense. The first thing they need to do is get Marshawn Lynch back to his old self. Pete Carroll's offense works best with Beast Mode carrying the load, but he's only carried the ball 27 times in the last two games.
In the passing game, Harvin's presence was a detriment to Baldwin's fantasy value because of how the Seahawks were using the two. Both players are most effective out of the slot. Harvin has the more electrifying speed, so it made sense for Carroll to go with him there most of the time.
Unfortunately, that negated Baldwin's strength. According to Pro Football Focus, the former Stanford star was one of the league's best slot receivers in 2013 when Harvin was out of the lineup:
"In Harvin's absence in 2013 Doug Baldwin was among the league's better slot receivers. 33/50, 568 yds, 0TD on slot targets.
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) October 17, 2014"
ESPN fantasy guru Christopher Harris noticed that Baldwin wasn't getting to run out of the slot but is optimistic about his fantasy upside now:
"Ideally Baldwin is a slot player," Harris wrote. "Though with Harvin around, he has rarely actually run out of the slot this year. Expect him to bounce inside far more often and potentially look a bit more attractive in PPR leagues."
Harris did write that it's dangerous to bet on Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse if Harvin wasn't able to put up numbers in this offense, calling them "tease-worthy" producers.
While the trepidation is real, don't get hung up on it. Wilson has targeted Baldwin 25 times this season. The only other player who had been targeted more was Harvin (26 times).
No one is going to confuse Baldwin for Jordy Nelson or Demaryius Thomas because that's not who he is, nor do the Seahawks run the same offense as the Green Bay Packers or Denver Broncos. He was tied for the team lead with five touchdowns last year, so expect his number to get called more often in the red zone.
Don't forget the Seahawks lost Wilson's favorite target from 2013, Golden Tate, who signed with the Detroit Lions as a free agent. Harvin's departure means Baldwin is guaranteed to move into the No. 1 receiver spot, whether it's on the outside or in the slot.
Considering Seattle has games with the St. Louis Rams, Carolina Panthers, Oakland Raiders and New York Giants, its offense should be able to put up a lot of points over the next four weeks. Baldwin should find the end zone at least once and see his targets go from four to six per game up to around seven or eight.
This is an excellent buy-low spot for fantasy owners who don't already have Baldwin or an opportunity to cash in for patient owners who didn't sell him while Harvin was playing in his spot.
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