5 Bold Predictions for the Portland Trail Blazers During 2014-15 Season
As the 2014-15 NBA season draws closer, it's that time again to commence predictions for the Portland Trail Blazers.
The team took a major step forward last season, making a 21-game improvement in the Western Conference standings. The Blazers launched themselves into the upper echelon of powerhouse teams, led by All-Stars LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard.
Portland's trio of role players in Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez provided timely support en route to Portland advancing past the opening round of the playoffs for the first time in 14 years.
The bench has been improved with the addition of Chris Kaman and Steve Blake, as well as the development of younger guys like C.J. McCollum and Thomas Robinson.
As such, it leaves the door open as to what we can expect from the Blazers this year. The starting unit remains intact and looks to be supported by a more competent bench, although the Western Conference did improve as a whole during the offseason.
Yet regardless of the competition, the Blazers will be a destructive force in the NBA this season on a number of levels. Let's take a look at some predictions.
Nicolas Batum Will Be the Blazers' Main Distributor
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Few players are as versatile as Nicolas Batum, and his skills will be on display this coming season.
The 6’8” small forward has been a core piece to Portland’s efforts since the 2008-9 season, improving each year. Last season, Batum posted a terrific all-around statistical campaign of 13.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 36.1 percent shooting from three-point range.
He’s also a strong defender on the wing as well, with a wide wingspan and quick feet to contain perimeter scorers. But of all that Batum does for the Blazers, nothing may be more instrumental than his distributing.
Portland’s starting lineup boasts two All-Stars in Lillard and Aldridge, but only the former can be relied on as a playmaker. Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez both contribute in their own ways, but neither is able to distribute and run the team’s offense.
Batum can run the pick-and-roll with either Aldridge or Lopez, passing to one of them in the low or high post as well as shooting off screens. Head coach Terry Stotts has made the most of his ability to do so, as the forward’s assist-per-game average jumped from 4.9 in the 2012-13 season to 5.1 for last season.
Batum’s career-high average prior to Stotts’ arrival was 1.5 during the 2010-11 season.
As such, it’s feasible he could lead the team in assists.
As Lillard evolves as an elite shooter and scorer, he will receive more defensive attention on any given night. With that, Batum will need to step in and become the central playmaker.
He’s shown the ability to run an offense, as well as score and defend, very much in the mold of a player like Scottie Pippen. Batum has had little trouble finding his teammates on the court for open shots, ranking third in assist-per-game average among small forwards last season (he trailed just LeBron James and Kevin Durant).
In addition, he checked in at No. 2 among qualified players in assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.02.
Whether he’s dishing to a cutting Lopez, Aldridge stepping back into the mid-range area for an open jumper or Lillard/Matthews waving their arms with an open three-point shot in mind, Batum will be there to answer the call.
He might just do so all season long.
LaMarcus Aldridge's Scoring Will Drop...but His Efficiency Will Rise
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LaMarcus Aldridge had the best statistical season of his career last year but only to a certain extent. While some of his numbers jumped, others fell to make his strides bittersweet.
The power forward checked in at No. 8 in terms of individual scoring at 23.2 points per game, a career high. He also snagged a career-best 11.1 rebounds per contest, as well as matching a career-best assist mark of 2.6 per game.
With that being said, Aldridge also shot a career-low 45.8 percent from the field.
Field-goal percentage can being misleading, but it is indicative of a player’s efficiency shooting the ball. The big man is one of the top mid-range shooters in the league, converting 42.2 percent of attempts last season, per NBA.com.
In short, Aldridge’s lower percentage might be due to his usage rate for the year. Courtesy of John Hollinger’s advanced stats on ESPN.com, a usage rate can be defined as “the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes.”
Aldridge was seventh among all players with a 27.9 rate, similar to that of the Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry and the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Kyrie Irving.
What is most striking is that neither of those guards played with an All-Star-caliber player last season. Arguments can be made for certain players on either team, but both were the unquestioned lead performers for their squads.
The Blazers have the luxury of pairing Aldridge with a talented guard like Lillard, who showed distinct improvement over the course of the season and during the playoffs. Going into next season, it is likely more responsibility will be shifted off Aldridge and onto Lillard.
In the process, the power forward’s scoring will dip slightly. Though he ranked as a top-10 scorer last season, Aldridge won’t reach the same level this year. He’ll still be a force offensively, but just not in the same way.
Instead, Aldridge will have a lesser burden on his shoulders to perform and can concentrate on his efficiency. He was still effective as a turnaround shooter in the post, at 42.6 percent per NBA.com, but converted 37.4 percent of jump shots.
With Lillard taking some of the defensive attention, the big man will be free to snap the net with a little more ease than last season.
Damian Lillard Will Be a Top-10 Scorer for the Season
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Get ready, Rip City. This kid is big-time.
On the back of Aldridge enjoying a less pressured role, Lillard will step in to take some of the attention away from his All-Star teammate.
This season may just be the point guard’s third, but he looks more than ready to be an offensive force. He upped his scoring average of 19.0 from his rookie year to 20.7 points last season but could believably go beyond that this season.
Lillard is a shooter first and foremost, but he’s more than capable of scoring in other areas. In fact, 60.2 percent of all his made shots from last season were unassisted, per NBA.com. Just 39.8 percent came off passes from his teammates whether he was on the perimeter or cutting to the rim.
He shot 42.4 percent from the field and 39.4 percent from long range for the year, as well as 87.1 percent from the free-throw line. Lillard does have strides to make in terms of efficiency, but his current percentages aren’t terrible.
In any case, he has the skills to evolve into one of the NBA’s top scorers. One of the top 10, to be exact.
Lillard ranked No. 16 in scoring last season, falling short of the 10th spot by exactly two points. It doesn’t appear as a major difference on paper, but it’s a sizable difference on the court.
Yet it’s still a feat that’s in reach for the young guard as he looks to improve heading into next season.
He made the third-most three-point shots of any player last season and will likely reach a similar plateau this year. Head coach Stotts turned to his point guard a few times last season, as Aldridge missed time with injury.
When the big man was on the sidelines, Lillard’s scoring jumped to 24 points per game. He’s more than capable of holding his own against opposing backcourts and should do so for the entirety of next season, vaulting into the upper echelon of the NBA’s scorers in the process.
Portland's Bench Will Rank in the Top Half of the League
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While Portland’s bench was poor last season, it will rank much higher this coming season. With the signings of Kaman and Blake, combined with the development of McCollum, Robinson and Will Barton, the Blazers now have a strong reserve unit.
Of all 30 NBA teams, Portland’s backups ranked No. 30 in scoring, No. 25 in rebounding, No. 26 in field-goal percentage and No. 22 in three-point percentage, per Hoops Stats.
McCollum had a shaky start to his rookie year and provided a little less than a No. 10 overall pick normally does, averaging just 5.3 points on 41.6 percent. Robinson wasn’t consistent enough to maintain a stable role, and Meyers Leonard was thrust into a role he wasn’t developed enough to handle.
All three are talented players but weren’t in the right situation last year. But with a slight roster shake-up and another offseason to develop, things look optimistic for the coming season.
Veteran guard Mo Williams departed for the Minnesota Timberwolves in free agency, which led the Blazers to replace his services with those of Blake and Kaman. Williams might have been the more talented player overall, but Portland added two serviceable veterans rather than one.
Blake chipped in 9.5 points and 7.6 assists in his time with the Los Angeles Lakers last season, shooting 39.7 percent from three-point range. Kaman put up 10.4 points and 5.9 rebounds in a reserve role, though both may have inflated stats courtesy of former Lakers head coach Mike D’Antoni’s uptempo offensive style.
At any rate, both are still able to contribute effectively. Neither is a defensive stoppers, but Blake and Kaman fit right in with what Portland does as a team. The duo can pass and shoot, as well as do the little things like rebound, set screens and provide leadership.
McCollum has shown promise thus far by averaging 11.2 points in the preseason, including a 19-point performance to lift the Blazers over the Los Angeles Clippers. Robinson hasn’t quite come through in the four preseason games, though he did average 13.7 points on 50 percent shooting in the NBA’s Las Vegas Summer League before succumbing to injury.
Barton also has the chance to play a big role, alongside other reserves like veteran shooter Dorell Wright and strong big men like Leonard and Joel Freeland.
A lot of the names are the same, but the Blazers bench suddenly has potential to succeed. It isn’t as deep as some, but it has the experience, talent and fortitude to be a strong unit.
The Blazers Will Win More Than 55 Games
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Sure, it might not seem like a bold prediction on paper. But in the stacked Western Conference? Well, that’s a different story.
Portland surprised the league last year by starting the season with a 25-7 record at the end of December. Lillard and Aldridge, combined with Batum, Matthews and Lopez, played with such synergy and poise that the Blazers took the NBA by storm and looked like legitimate championship contenders.
A deadly offense and a feisty defense to match helped Portland improve its record by 21 games. As such, the coming season will see similar improvement, but not quite on the same scale (obviously, as another 21-game improvement would see the team with a 75-7 record).
To be exact, it’s feasible the team wins two more games than it did last season and rise higher in the conference. The Blazers went 54-28 for the 2013-14 season, tying for the No. 4 seed in the West with the Houston Rockets. They then trailed just the San Antonio Spurs, the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Los Angeles Clippers.
With an improved bench, a more cohesive unit and a stronger offensive threat in Lillard, Portland has the tools to be an even mightier team.
Let’s be clear that other Western Conference powers, like the Clippers, the Dallas Mavericks and the Golden State Warriors, made moves to remain competitive as well. Hence, winning more games is much easier said than done.
Yet the Blazers tied for the fifth-best overall record in the NBA with one of the league’s worst benches and a lack of help outside of their core players.
With a stronger reserve unit led by veterans Kaman and Blake, the drive of youngsters in McCollum, Robinson and Barton, and the quietly dominant performances of the starting unit, Portland can be one of the strongest teams the West has to offer.
Winning another two games is more than attainable given all that, even considering the improvement of the competition.
The opponents may have become stronger, but so did Portland.
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