NFL Crapshoot, Week 7: San Diego Chargers Ripe for an Upset

Next Thursday Night’s football game should be a dandy between the San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos, who look to continue a recent string of surprisingly competent TNF games.

This week’s game against the New York Jets and New England Patriots was another solid outing on what used to be known as Turnover Night Football.

No whining from me this week. Let’s just get to the picks.

Here’s What I Know Will Happen

I know the Kansas City Chiefs (+4) will cover against the San Diego Chargers

The Chargers defense will be coming off an underwhelming performance in Oakland, while Andy Reid’s Chiefs will be coming off a bye week, where Reid is 14-2 in his career.

San Diego could be looking ahead to a big national television spot against chief division rival Denver Broncos on Thursday. The Chiefs will be seeking revenge for a Week 17 overtime loss to the Chargers last season that miraculously vaulted San Diego into the playoffs.

Kansas City is already 0-1 within its division, and falling into an 0-2 hole while potentially looking up at two one-loss teams would be a serious obstacle to winning the AFC West. A desperate, well-rested Kansas City Chiefs team should steal one in San Diego.

Here’s What I Think Will Happen

I think the New Orleans Saints will beat the Detroit Lions outright

It’s no secret that the New Orleans Saints are not particularly good on the road, especially under Sean Payton. Coming off a bye week and playing in a fast, indoor stadium, however, should help.

The Saints sit at a disappointing 2-3, but the NFC South remains wide open as it is currently being led by the injury-and-suspension-depleted Carolina Panthers.  

Jason Miller/Getty Images

New Orleans’ top-five offense will meet Detroit’s top-ranked defense, however, Detroit will be without game-changing star Calvin Johnson while the Saints will get Mark Ingram back from injury, who was averaging 6.0 YPC prior to going down.

At just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games following a win, the undermanned Lions should be ripe for a letdown against an uptempo offense that will force a shootout.

Here’s What I’m Probably Wrong About

I’m probably wrong but the New York Giants (+7) will cover against the Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off their biggest win of the season, while the New York Giants are fresh off an embarrassing loss, which came in the form of a 27-0 shutout on national television.

This has the makings of an inflated favorite destined to come down, especially in AT&T Stadium where Eli Manning is 4-1.

The Dallas Cowboys' success, particularly on defense, is due in part to smoke and mirrors. Dallas ranks 29th in opponent yards per play, yet has been able to mask its defensive holes by maintaining possession through a dominant running game and offensive line.

Despite losing Victor Cruz, the Giants still have potent weapons in Larry Donnell, Ruben Randle and explosive rookie Odell Beckham Jr. This one should be an ambush.

Week 6 NFL Crapshoot Record: 1-2

Overall 2014 NFL Crapshoot Record: 8-6

Betting information courtesy of Odds Shark unless otherwise noted.