NFL Crapshoot, Week 6: New York Giants Take on Sloppy Philladelphia Eagles

It’s Week 6 in the NFL and nobody’s undefeated. Nobody. The MLB postseason has more undefeated teams than the NFL. The fall of the unbeaten happened so quickly, the 1972 Miami Dolphins had to have their champagne rush delivered. And it wasn’t even cold.

Some will make the mistake of assuming there are no great teams in the NFL, and the absence of an unbeaten team is evidence of the league’s parity.

While that may be partly true, you can’t convince me that the San Diego Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals—with the bright lights turned down—can just be lumped in with everybody else.

After an 0-2 start, The Indianapolis Colts may have some real estate in that discussion, but their wins remain suspect. Which reminds me:

Thursday Night Stat of the Week: Thursday’s game marked the fifth consecutive Thursday Night Game (in five games) where a team held at least a 20-point lead. It was the fourth straight game where four or more turnovers were committed.

Here’s What I Know Will Happen

I know the New York Giants (+2.5) will cover against the Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are the worst 4-1 team in football if ever there were such a thing. Nick Foles’ sloppy play and Philadelphia’s compiling of turnovers have been offset, for now, by Chip Kelly’s high-volume offensive juggernaut.

Last Sunday saw another ugly win as the Eagles held off a furious St. Louis comeback—again, if there ever were such a thing in 2014—despite committing three turnovers.

Of course, the Eagles once again failed to cover at Lincoln Financial Field, where they will stay put for a divisional showdown with the resurgent New York Giants.

Philadelphia’s problems include inefficiency on offense (currently ranked 22nd in offensive efficiency per Football Outsiders) and giving the ball to the other team. Philadelphia’s current turnover ratio is -4, which makes them a dicey favorite. The Giants are even in that department.

With a talented secondary featuring Prince Amukamara and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Foles’ struggles will be much more pronounced on a box score. This thing could get ugly.

Here’s What I Think will Happen

I Think the Cleveland Browns Will Beat the Pittsburgh Steelers Outright

The Cleveland Browns have been one of the most fun teams to watch in the NFL. All of their games have been filled with drama, late comebacks, thrilling finishes or all the above. They’re pretty much the anti-Thursday Night Football.

It’s not every day that the Browns are favored. In fact, the Browns are favorites for just the second time all season against a Steelers team playing its fourth road game in five weeks. Pittsburgh has had its way with Cleveland under Ben Roethlisberger, going 8-1, but the talent gap between these two teams is finally starting to close.

Their last tilt in Pittsburgh saw a late Cleveland rally fall short as the Steelers escaped with a 30-27 victory.

Now at home, against an offense prone to disappearing in stretches during games, the Browns should close that talent gap and officially put the AFC North on darkhorse watch.

Here’s what I’m Probably Wrong About

I’m Probably Wrong, but the New York Jets (+9.5) will cover against the Denver Broncos

Here’s a fun trick for those of you too busy (or lazy) to research intensive betting statistics. Add up the margins of victory from the week before between a heavy favorite and an underdog. If that total is over 50 points, bet the underdog. Just don’t get carried away because, again, that’s just a fun little trick with limited research.

Luckily, this is one of those games. The Jets’ 31-0 blowout loss combined with Denver’s 41-20 win adds up to a 51-point swing. With a New York media firestorm at a fever pitch, Rex Ryan’s seat couldn’t get any hotter if it were on retail at Brookstone.

Coaches dubbed “player’s coaches,” as has been the case with Ryan, usually get overachieving performances from their teams in these spots. The embarrassing loss, and subsequent controversy, should give way to an inspired performance against the AFC’s best team.

Week 5 NFL Crapshoot Record: 2-1

Overall 2014 NFL Crapshoot Record: 7-5

Betting information courtesy of Odds Shark unless otherwise noted.