St. Louis Rams: Official Win-Loss Predictions for Every Game of the 2014 Season
The St. Louis Rams kick off the 2014 season on Sunday, Sept. 7, at home against the Minnesota Vikings, making this the perfect time to make predictions for all 16 games.
Of course, the Rams will be without starting quarterback Sam Bradford, who suffered a season-ending knee injury during the preseason. His absence makes the start of the season a bittersweet experience, but it shouldn't be. In fact, the last time the Rams lost a starting passer in the preseason, the team went on to win the Super Bowl (Trent Green, 1999).
The 1999 Rams proved that no one player is more important than the team as a whole, and that any team can take advantage of a clean slate, regardless of how grim the outlook is in the beginning. Fans should be just as excited for this season opener as any other.
I will go through St. Louis' entire 2014 schedule, game by game, and predict a win or loss for each contest. Furthermore, I will not shoot for a specific final record—I will make the predictions one game at a time without keeping track, and I'll stand by the final record at the end.
I've been making season predictions since 2010 with mixed results. Here's a brief glance at my past attempts:
2010 Season: Prediction (7-9), Outcome (7-9)
2011 Season: Prediction (10-6), Outcome (2-14)
2012 Season : Prediction (7-9), Outcome (7-8-1)
2013 Season: Prediction (9-7), Outcome (7-9)
In 2011, I made the mistake of thinking St. Louis would build on its promising 2010 campaign and take the next step, but the team managed to do the polar opposite.
The best season was 2012, where I not only accurately predicted the win total, but also maintained 100 percent accuracy of the game-by-game predictions for 10 weeks.
So once again, I will take off the fan blinders, throw out any personal bias and try to make the most accurate predictions possible.
Here's a look at the schedule before we begin:
Week 1: Sept. 7, noon CT vs. Minnesota Vikings
Week 2: Sept. 14, 3:05 pm CT at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 3: Sept. 21, noon CT vs. Dallas Cowboys
Week 4: Bye
Week 5: Oct. 5, noon CT at Philadelphia Eagles
Week 6: Oct. 13, 7:30 pm CT vs. San Francisco 49ers
Week 7: Oct. 19, noon CT vs. Seattle Seahawks
Week 8: Oct. 26, noon CT at Kansas City Chiefs
Week 9: Nov. 2, 3:05 pm CT at San Francisco 49ers
Week 10: Nov. 9, 3:25 CT at Arizona Cardinals
Week 11: Nov. 16, noon CT vs. Denver Broncos
Week 12: Nov. 23, 3:05 pm CT at San Diego Chargers
Week 13: Nov. 30, noon CT vs. Oakland Raiders
Week 14: Dec. 7, noon CT at Washington Redskins
Week 16: Dec. 21, 3:05 pm CT vs. New York Giants
Week 17: Dec. 28, 3:25 p.m. CT at Seattle Seahawks
Week 1 vs. Minnesota Vikings: Win
1 of 17
Record: 1-0
Season openers are traditionally difficult games to predict, as both teams are confident, healthy and fully energized. Even so, logic favors the Rams in this one.
Facing a healthy and well-rested Adrian Peterson in Week 1 is a considerable challenge, but it's also the only factor from this game that's truly frightening for St. Louis. And while Peterson is still an elite NFL back, it's doubtful he'll ever return to his 2012 MVP form. This isn't the same guy who racked up 212 yards against the Rams two years ago.
Also, according to ESPN's Ben Goessling, the Vikings will start veteran Matt Cassel at quarterback over rookie Teddy Bridgewater. Cassel appeared in nine games for Minnesota last season and ended the year with just 11 touchdown passes and an 81.6 passer rating. He also averaged one interception per game.
Putting a mediocre Cassel behind an offensive line that allowed 44 sacks last year, and asking him to face a St. Louis pass rush that is arguably the best in the NFL, is a disaster in the making.
When we combine Cassel's inevitable punishment with St. Louis' home-field advantage, it's not hard to favor the Rams in this game.
Week 2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Win
2 of 17
Record: 2-0
This is the third-consecutive season St. Louis will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In the last two matchups, the Rams were able to escape with convincing victories, and it's hard to believe much has changed this time around.
Tampa Bay has a healthy Doug Martin returning to the lineup, but the Buccaneers' run game never really experienced a sharp decline following Martin's injury last year, so it's not really a game-changer.
The Bucs will also field a new starting quarterback in Josh McCown. He passed for over 350 yards against the Rams secondary with the Chicago Bears last year, but that had more to do with St. Louis going up 21-7 in the opening quarter and going into prevent-defense mode, as opposed to McCown's razor-sharp quarterbacking skills.
Tampa Bay hired Lovie Smith as the new head coach this offseason. Bringing in a seasoned head coach to run the team was certainly one of Tampa's wisest decisions in recent years, and it will pay off eventually. However, the Buccaneers are still very much a team in transition.
The Bucs have some great defensive pieces at Smith's disposal (Lavonte David, Gerald McCoy), as well as two towering receivers in Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans. Those players should be a handful, but St. Louis has the advantage on defense and will likely come out on top.
Week 3 vs. Dallas Cowboys: Loss
3 of 17
Record: 2-1
The Dallas Cowboys have a formidable aerial attack, which does not bode well against a young St. Louis secondary. And regardless of what you think of Tony Romo, it can be argued that he's a legitimate franchise quarterback and a top-10 passer in this league, which means this is the first game the Rams will face a clear disadvantage at the quarterback position.
Not to mention, Dallas running back DeMarco Murray has been a pain for the Rams since entering the league in 2011. In just two career games against St. Louis, Murray has amassed 456 yards and two touchdowns—including 175 rushing yards in Week 3 in 2013 and 253 rushing yards in 2011.
After back-to-back wins to open the season, this game will be the team's early wake-up call.
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Week 4: Bye
4 of 17
Record: 2-1
The Rams will enter the bye week with an impressive 2-1 record, which will surely fill the players with confidence and convince them that they can win games without Bradford at the helm.
Unfortunately, confidence can only accomplish so much. The Rams have a tough road ahead following the bye.
Week 5 at Philadelphia Eagles: Loss
5 of 17
Record: 2-2
Chip Kelly's Philadelphia Eagles boast a lightning-quick offense stacked with playmakers, and the team's up-tempo methods will surely compensate for St. Louis' dominate pass rush.
Nick Foles is a Pro Bowl passer. He'll be without his favorite target, DeSean Jackson, who left the team this past offseason, but Foles still has the ability to devastate a vulnerable secondary.
Not to mention, the ground game will feature, perhaps, the most dangerous back in the NFL in LeSean McCoy. McCoy is too quick and explosive to be contained by larger defensive ends, so he'll present a major challenge for the St. Louis linebackers.
Adding to my skepticism is the fact that this is a road game in a hostile environment. When we combine these factors, it's hard to like St. Louis' chances in this game.
Week 6 vs. San Francisco 49ers: Win
6 of 17
Record: 3-2
This is a tough, resilient Rams team that benefits from great leadership. This will allow them to overcome the two consecutive losses and put on an inspiring prime-time show for Monday Night Football at the Edward Jones Dome.
The Rams were humiliated during their Week 4 prime-time game against the San Francisco 49ers last season—a game the Rams lost 35-11 in front of their home crowd—and you can count on the Rams doing everything possible to avoid a similar fate this time around.
San Francisco's Pro Bowl linebacker NaVorro Bowman will miss the game with a knee injury and the 49ers' top pass-rush threat, defensive end Aldon Smith, will also be out of action because of a nine-game suspension. These two omissions will play a key factor in this game and allow the St. Louis offense some breathing room.
Every year, I attempt to predict one surprise win and one surprise loss for the Rams. We'll go ahead and chalk this up as the team's surprise win of the season.
Week 7 vs. Seattle Seahawks: Loss
7 of 17
Record: 3-3
The Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks narrowly escaped with a victory the last time they played in St. Louis against a Rams backup quarterback. In was Week 8 of 2013, and the game came down to the very last play, but ended in a 14-9 victory for Seattle after a goal-line pass to Rams receiver Brian Quick fell incomplete.
The St. Louis coaching staff took heavy criticism for calling a passing play rather than punching it in, but in reality, the Rams were lucky to be in that position to begin with. Don't expect a similar outcome this time around—the juggernaut Seahawks are too good to just assume that the Rams will be competitive for four quarters.
If the Rams can somehow pull it off, it would certainly be an inspiring victory that could fuel St. Louis to a playoff-worthy season. However, that's not a safe or wise prediction, so I'll stick with common sense and predict a loss for the Rams.
Week 8 at Kansas City Chiefs: Win
8 of 17
Record: 4-3
The Kansas City Chiefs were, by far, one of the most overrated teams in the playoffs last season.
The Chiefs defeated just one playoff team during the 2013 regular season—a 10-point victory over the Eagles early in the year, before Nick Foles even took over at quarterback—and the team lost four out of its five matchups against playoff teams, including postseason play.
The only other 2013 playoff team arguably more overrated than the Chiefs was the Indianapolis Colts, who benefited by playing in the most pathetic division in football. The Chiefs had the luxury of facing the Colts in the first round of the playoffs, and even that was too much for them to handle.
The Chiefs managed to weasel their way to a wild-card birth, despite losing both games against the division foe San Diego Chargers, who finished third in the AFC West. Overall, Kansas City finished 2-4 against their own division, and both wins came against the lowly last-place Oakland Raiders.
Even the 7-9 Rams had wins over the playoff-bound Colts and Saints, and managed to win both games with a backup quarterback. The Rams also had a Week 1 victory over the 10-win Arizona Cardinals, as well as a 42-21 thumping over the eight-win Chicago Bears.
All six of St. Louis' divisional contests were against double-digit win teams. Unlike the Chiefs, the Rams didn't have an Oakland-like bottom feeder in the division to beat up on.
The Chiefs and Colts were graced with playoff berths thanks to circumstance, but neither team can say they're better than any NFC West team, at least not with a straight face.
Remember that juggernaut Colts team that the Chiefs couldn't handle in the playoffs? The Cardinals and Rams both slaughtered those Colts by a combined score of 78-19 (both teams exceeded 35 points against the Indianapolis defense).
As for the prediction? Lets just say the Rams pull this one off with ease.
Week 9 at San Francisco 49ers: Loss
9 of 17
Record: 4-4
The Rams have a real shot at upsetting the 49ers during the Week 6 game in St. Louis, but taking down San Francisco on the road with a healthy Bowman back in the lineup is a tall order.
The Rams haven't pulled off a victory in San Francisco since 2007. And while that's a streak that must end, it also makes it extremely difficult to bet in St. Louis' favor for this game.
A victory is rather unlikely, but since this will be the first game between the two rivals in San Francisco's new stadium, perhaps the Rams can pull off the upset and devastate the 49ers' fans.
Week 10 at Arizona Cardinals: Win
10 of 17
Record: 5-4
After playing four consecutive games against 2013 playoff teams, it won't get any easier for the Rams when they arrive to Arizona for their third straight road trip.
Perhaps, after taking recent poundings by Seattle and San Francisco, and with a dominate Denver opponent up next, the Rams will realize that this is their best opportunity for a win over the next two weeks. Maybe that realization will snap St. Louis into high gear and summon an admirable performance.
The Cardinals are no joke and should not be taken lightly. Arizona deserved a spot in the 2013 playoffs just as much as any other team, and only missed out as a result of playing in the best division around.
Having said that, the Rams have handled their business against Arizona in three of their last four meetings with the Cardinals.
Also, this game is fairly late into the season. It's not outrageous to assume that Carson Palmer, Arizona's 34-year-old quarterback who has struggled with injuries throughout his career, only has about a 50 percent chance of still being in the lineup at this point in the year. He hasn't missed a start since 2011, so he's well overdue.
Not to mention, the Cardinals have lost key pieces on defense, including starting safety Yeremiah Bell, linebacker Karlos Dansby and Pro Bowl linebacker Daryl Washington, who has been suspended for the entire 2014 season.
At the very least, this is a winnable game for the Rams, and it's one the team can pull off.
Week 11 vs. Denver Broncos: Loss
11 of 17
Record: 5-5
This game is actually more winnable than you might think at first glance. We saw what happened to the Denver Broncos when they underwent the NFC West treatment in the Super Bowl, and it was far from pretty. Also, the Rams defense was more than capable of standing up to Denver's first-team offense during the 2013 preseason (Alec Ogletree had a pick-six against Peyton Manning).
So even though Denver is a Super Bowl contender, this certainly isn't a game the Rams or their fans should write off mentally.
Having said that, the Rams lack Seattle's dominate secondary. That'll make it difficult for St. Louis to inflict intense punishment on the Denver receivers, as the Seahawks did during the Super Bowl.
This game isn't out of reach for the Rams, but Denver has to be the safe choice.
Week 12 at San Diego Chargers: Loss
12 of 17
Record: 5-6
It's always tough to make an accurate prediction against the San Diego Chargers, as you never know which Chargers team you're going to get.
San Diego had a bottom-five pass defense and finished third in the AFC West, but this is also a group that boasted a top-five overall offense and a borderline top-10 run defense.
San Diego is a team on the decline. The Chargers will not return to the dominate form we witnessed several years ago, at least not anytime soon. Things will get worse for San Diego before getting better.
And while the Rams are the opposite—an ascending team rather than a team on the decline—it's still fair to say that the Chargers are slightly better than their 2013 performance would indicate. Throw in the fact that this is a road game for the Rams, and this game is far from an easy win.
This is probably a game the Rams should win, but I'll make this the surprise loss of the 2014 season.
Week 13 vs. Oakland Raiders: Win
13 of 17
Record: 6-6
The last time quarterback Matt Schaub faced the ferocious St. Louis pass rush, the Rams forced him onto the injury report for five weeks.
Now, take away Andre Johnson and Arian Foster, and put Schaub in a lowly Raiders uniform, and it's clear this game is a disaster in the making for Schaub and his new Oakland teammates.
If there was something nice to say regarding Oakland and its chances in this game, I'd say it. But there's not. In reality, this is the closest thing to a guaranteed win on St. Louis' schedule, and the Rams will surely capitalize.
Week 14 at Washington Redskins: Win
14 of 17
Record: 7-6
This has the potential to be a very intimidating road game, especially if RG III can rekindle his rookie-year magic. However, until Robert Griffin can prove he's up to the task, and until Jay Gruden can show he deserves to be a head coach in this league, it's difficult to see this game as a major threat.
This Rams defense faced Griffin at the top of his game during his rookie year. The Rams could handle him then, and they can handle him this time around.
Unfortunately for Griffin, the Rams face Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson twice a year. As a result, defending against a scrambling quarterback is nothing new for St. Louis. It's just another day at the office.
Expect the Rams to come out on top, unless Griffin comes back in a big way this season.
Week 15 vs. Arizona Cardinals: Loss
15 of 17
Record: 7-7
The Rams have the ability to take down the Cardinals at least once this season, but a total sweep against the underrated Redbirds is probably unlikely.
Every team is a competitor in the NFC West (it's not all about the Seahawks and 49ers), so this late-season matchup could very well be a vital battle for a wild-card spot, or possibly even a division title. At the very least, both teams should still mathematically be in the hunt at this point in the season, which will add to the intensity.
This game could go either way, but I'll allow the Cardinals to come out on top this time around.
Week 16 vs. New York Giants: Win
16 of 17
Record: 8-7
The Giants had pretty light competition in the watered-down NFC East last season, yet they could only muster a modest seven-win campaign. The Rams matched that win total while playing in the toughest division in football with a backup quarterback.
The Giants are the most underwhelming team to win a Super Bowl this century (let alone two Super Bowls), and the franchise has not had a double-digit win season since 2010. That's not to say the Rams have been any better in recent years, but it simply means that these teams are trending in opposite directions—the Rams are rising and the Giants are on the decline.
Eli Manning took an embarrassing step backward last season with 27 interceptions, and the Rams will rattle him in the pocket all afternoon.
St. Louis will also have home-field advantage, making this a matchup that is hardly intimidating.
Week 17 at Seattle Seahawks: Loss
17 of 17
Record: 8-8
If the Rams can pick just one game to win out of the entire 2014 season, any St. Louis fan can tell you that this would be the most satisfying victory by a long shot.
The Rams have not won a game on Seattle's turf since the 2004 season. St. Louis had a golden chance to break the curse during the 2010 season finale, with a playoff berth and division title on the line, but the team choked horribly in front of a prime-time audience.
The losing streak has become an embarrassment for all of Rams Nation, and this madness has to come to an end before this St. Louis team can be taken seriously.
It would certainly be a moment of elation if the Rams can pull off the win here, but since the goal of this is to accurately predict the outcome of games, I have no choice but forecast a loss. Predicting the Rams to win in a venue that has been a slaughterhouse for the past decade does not make for an unbiased article.
Go ahead and hope for the best, just don't count on it coming to fruition.
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