Breaking Down the Houston Texans' Blueprint for Winning the Super Bowl

After their breakthrough in 2011 as AFC South champions, along with their first playoff win, what can the Houston Texans do for an encore? 

The obvious answer is go all the way. That short trip down Interstate 10 to the Crescent City for Super Bowl XLVII is actually a long and winding road through the 2012 NFL season. A lot of things will have to go as planned to earn that berth. 

The Texans’ fans have had a taste of success and are thirsting for more. The following will attempt to offer some insight into just what might turn this hope into reality. 

The Plan

If there were any doubts the NFL has become a passing league, the three 5,000-yard quarterbacks of 2011 should have dismissed any doubts. Each of these teams made the playoffs and Tom Brady directed the Patriots to Super Bowl XLVI. 

If there were any doubts the Texans are not about to follow this trend, consider where they ranked during their first division-winning campaign: 

Second in rushing attempts: 33.8

Second in rushing yardage per game: 153.7

Second in time of possession: 32:17 

Now throw in their unparalleled defensive improvement to second in yardage allowed and fourth in points allowed, and the plan is a simple as the instructions on a shampoo bottle: Run, Defend, Repeat. 

When your team fields the best all-around running back in Arian Foster and a talented backup in Ben Tate, that aspect of the plan is covered. The quarterback leading them, Matt Schaub, might get his first shot at the playoffs if he just plays a full schedule. Andre Johnson, the best route-runner in pro football, must also stay off the injured list and on the field.  

Your good fortune on defense is even more evident, with abilities both established and emerging throughout the lineup. Johnathan Joseph, Antonio Smith and Brian Cushing are well known, while J.J Watt, Connor Barwin and Glover Quin are all making names for themselves. 

A simple plan, yes, but every single upcoming opponent is acutely aware of its design. They are also aware that the competence of the right side of the offensive line is uncertain, of the reliance on rookies in both the receiving and return corps and that the three top offensive weapons on this team each missed time last year. 

In addition to these issues, the other side of the ball may have to overcome a tendency of defenses coached by Wade Phillips to regress in their second season.

Our own Nate Dunlevy, who covers the AFC South for Bleacher Report, gave a clear analysis of this tendency in which he noted: “Phillips has a hard time building on first-year success. On multiple occasions his defenses have actually plummeted in year two.” Before you start shouting “Haters!” at your device of choice, read the article. 

So the stage is set, the actors know their lines and the time has come to raise the curtain. But before this tale unfolds, we shall take an inside look at this production. 

The Coaches

It has taken six years for Gary Kubiak to be this enviable position. He has a well-balanced roster, a clear-headed and consistent approach to his offense and a defensive coordinator who has seen it all. 

But this same offense can, at times, seem like a “one-trick pony.” When the running game stalls, it lacks the contingencies in personnel and philosophy to play from behind. In a recent post that praised Kubiak for being an underappreciated innovator, Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com noted a glaring drawback in his approach. As told to Kuharsky by his colleague Matt Williamson: “I also think it is telling that Kubiak really only features one wide receiver -- and everyone knows it.” 

Williamson was referring to the over-reliance on Andre Johnson to get the tough yards through the air. This turns Houston’s best receiver into a magnet for double coverage. Schaub’s second read in most situations is a tight end.

As good as Owen Daniels is, and Garret Graham and James Casey might be, none of them can be confused for Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski. In other words, they are not game-changers, zone busters or difference makers. 

When it works, the synergy of zone blocking, superb ball-carriers, and play-action passing can look unstoppable. But succeeding in the red zone, where the sideline becomes an extra defender, is difficult when there is only a single wideout that demands attention. 

In goal-to-go situations during their drive to the AFC South title, the wide receivers only recorded three touchdowns. This could be explained by having Andre Johnson out of the lineup for nine games. But over his career, Johnson has been on the sideline when the Texans are that close to a score. 

Kubiak prefers running backs and tight ends when the field is shortened. James Casey and Garrett Graham need to make up for the loss of Joel Dreesen. Foster and Tate must be able to get to the end zone and not have their kicker, Shayne Graham, booting 20-yard field goals on fourth down.

Wade Phillips has been coaching NFL defenses in one capacity or another since Gerald Ford was the POTUS. He has seen the game evolve from the “gotta run” grind of the Seventies to the “gotta pass” onslaught of the present. 

His response is to confuse the offense with multiple looks, then launch pass-rushers from every direction. Everyone in his front seven has an array of stunts designed for him. Which explains why Bradie James bagged eight sacks in 2008 as a Dallas Cowboys ILB, Brian Cushing brought so much pressure from the middle last year and the defense had a record 44 sacks in 2011. 

There is a drawback to this concentration on backfield penetration. The intermediate zones become the sole responsibility of the defensive backs and the lone linebacker left to patrol the area. The preseason game against New Orleans exposed this weakness and Drew Brees fully exploited it. 

Even before that, the expanse of open space in the middle of the field on many passing downs was hard to dismiss. Phillips tries to counteract this with a reliance on some nickel but mostly dime packages. To keep up the pressure, a safety may decide to join the rush and abandon his zone. The better quarterbacks can turn this situation to their advantage. 

In the end, the key for Wade is to keep the offense guessing. If he can sustain that perplexity into his second year with the Texans, they will maintain the defensive excellence that surprised everyone with their amazing turnaround.

The Players

Those who follow the Texans with any regularity are well aware of their most essential players. In addition to the offensive trio of Foster, Schaub and Johnson, the importance of Duane Brown, Owen Daniels,and Chris Myers cannot be overlooked. 

Assuming their contributions, going all the way in 2012 will depend on developments at other positions. The two areas of greatest concern are the right side of the offensive line and the untested wide receivers. 

It was assumed going into training camp Antoine Caldwell and Rashad Butler would at least perform adequately at RG and RT, respectively. It was hoped third-round selection Brandon Brooks would push Caldwell right out of the starting lineup. Brooks needed the balance of camp to get into shape and pick up the blocking scheme, so the starting job defaulted to the oft-injured Caldwell. 

Rashad Butler filled in rather well when Duane Brown was suspended for four games in 2010. Butler then tore a tricep in Week 3 of 2011 and went on injured reserve for the rest of the year. His lackluster showing during this preseason was followed by the very same injury.

Derek Newton replaced Butler to mixed results, but ended up being the only logical choice to start. Former Bronco Ryan Harris was added to back up Newton, but his career has been injury plagued in recent years. 

Who among Lestar Jean, Keshawn Martin and DeVier Posey will reinforce the conviction that the release of Jacoby Jones was the right decision? Jean has the best physique (6’3”, 210), Martin had the best preseason despite some fumbles, and Posey looked like he had the longest path to become a pro. 

Even more speculative is the Trindon Holliday paradox.

Are his three runbacks for touchdowns in the preseason worth the muffed returns he suffered? If the former compensates for the latter, the smallest player in the league could have the kind of impact Devin Hester had in his early years. 

The defense faces fewer individual questions outside of the quality and depth in pass coverage. If the elbow of J.J. Watt and the back of Shaun Cody are healed, the defensive line looks sound. Other than Bradie James looking like he could be on the wrong side of thirty, the linebackers inside and outside are as packed with talent as any group this side of the 49ers. 

CB Kareem Jackson continues to be the favorite whipping boy for both the fans and opposing signal callers. There are too many times when he plays only the man and not the ball. If he remains too tempting a target, Brice McCain should be promoted from nickel back to starter. 

His mates at defensive back Johnathan Joseph, Danieal Manning and Glover Quin range from excellent to getting better all the time. The backups, from Brandon Harris, Roc Carmichael, Alan Ball, Shiloh Keo to Quintin Demps, are a mixed bag and the only area of serious concern. 

Brandon Harris needs to step forward and justify his second-round selection from a year ago. And Quintin Demps has to make sure the release of former backup safety Troy Nolan in the final cutdown brings no regrets. 

The Division

One look at the state of the AFC South, and someone from The Land Down Under would say “No worries for you Texans!” 

At first glance, the quarterbacks alone are reason enough to feel at ease. The Colts are being led by a rookie in Andrew Luck, albeit the most highly touted QB in recent memory. Jake Locker of the Titans and Blaine Gabbert of the Jaguars are second-year survivors of difficult debuts. 

Tennessee has a 9-7 record from 2011 to build on, and is led by an exceptional runner looking to make a comeback in Chris Johnson. He accompanied by an above-average defense and an even better coach in Mike Munchak. 

Jacksonville has a new owner in Shahid Khan and new coach in Mike Mularkey, but up until this week no Maurice Jones-Drew. Blaine Gabbert may have had the roughest start of any rookie QB last year, but has started to show signs of progress. The foundation for any improvement in their 5-11 record is a defense ranked in the upper third in points and yardage allowed. 

If the departure of Peyton Manning is one door closing for Indianapolis, the arrival of first overall pick Andrew Luck is the other door opening.

Coach Chuck Pagano managed to parlay his only season as an NFL defensive coordinator at Baltimore into a head coaching job. His first job is going to a 3-4 defense, which involves converting Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney into standup linebackers.  

If top seed in the AFC playoffs is the surest path to the Super Bowl for the Texans, going at least 13-3 is a requirement. This means sweeping the division, because the rest of the schedule does not offer up the same kind of cupcakes. One loss would not sink their hopes, but could mean having to make up that loss against their NFC North opponents.

The Rest of the Schedule

As noted in the previous slide, Houston has been assigned the NFC North as their inter-conference foe. They face Minnesota and Green Bay at home. 

The Vikings are the only organization without a legitimate shot at the playoffs. Tackling the Packers at Reliant Stadium translates to a clear advantage, but the best passing attack in the game will stretch the capabilities of the defense to its limits. 

Chicago’s followers wonder if their beloved Bears will be the same team with Jay Cutler as they were when he went down in Week 11 last year. They were 7-3 at that point, but collapsed down the stretch to an 8-8 mark. 

The first Thanksgiving game in franchise history means playing in Detroit on November 22nd. Will a Lions’ defense ranked 23rd in 2011 get carved up like a Butterball, or will it be the Texans who get served? 

It is hard to imagine these four games all ending up as wins. A 3-1 record added to a 6-0 sweep of the division allows for two losses through the rest of the schedule: NY Jets, Buffalo, Denver, Baltimore and New England. 

The NY Jets are caught up in the greatest turmoil of Rex Ryan’s tenure over whether Sanchez or Tebow should command the offense. The Texans have never beaten the Jets, but time has come to change that fact. 

Buffalo has become a trendy pick with Mario Williams on board and Dave Wannstedt stepping up as defensive coordinator. Anyone who is comfortable with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB favors Ivy League brains over football know-how. 

If Peyton Manning is as solid as Denver’s defense, this could be one of those two losses. Houston has lost both games previously played in the mile-high confines of Invesco Field. 

They are also 0-for-Baltimore in their six games versus the Ravens. But they get them at home for this contest, and would love to avenge their 20-17 playoff loss from January 2012—a game Houston could have won with its veteran quarterback in charge. 

As long as New England has Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, they will be rightfully feared. Perhaps less so if they do not improve their running game and middling defense this time around. Somehow this one feels like it could go either way. 

Even the best teams will win a game they should lose, and vice-versa. If a loss to Buffalo is offset by a win over New England, then the Texans would still be on track for the best record in the AFC and the all-important home-field advantage.

The confidence that comes with beating the best bestows more benefits than losing to the mediocre takes away.

The Playoffs

This is where the seedings and matchups amount to little more than a guessing game. The pattern of the post-free agency NFL is for each conference to have some surprise underachievers and overachievers.

For the NFC in 2011, Detroit and San Francisco exceeded expectations while all Philadelphia’s star power could not transform them into the Miami Heat of pro football.

In the AFC, Houston and Cincinnati came out of nowhere to make the playoffs. The New York Jets missed the postseason completely after making it into back-to-back AFC Championship games. 

Who will follow suit in the AFC this year?

A recovered and motivated Peyton Manning must be sick his little brother has more rings than he does, but can his magic be recaptured with the Broncos? Few give Cincinnati any chance to make the postseason again, this writer included. 

Pittsburgh has the most tried and true blueprint around, but without a rebuilt offensive line Ben Roethlisberger will continue to get hammered. Baltimore has the defense and running game to match the Texans, but will the loss of Terrell Suggs show their defense for the aged unit it has become? 

New England is always a safe choice, but their deficiencies are just the opposite of the Ravens’ strengths. Underestimating Bill Belichick can have serious consequences, particularly come playoff time. 

This blueprint has been designed around getting home field throughout. But that ignores just how the Lombardi Trophy has been won in the last decade.

Truth is, the team with the best record in their conference has garnered that crystal football just twice in the last 10 years (New England 2003, New Orleans 2009). Not only that, four wild-card teams have done it over the same period (Pittsburgh 2005, Green Bay 2010, NY Giants 2007 & 2011). 

The next slide will explain why the best record in the AFC offers the surest course for Houston to the ultimate game in New Orleans on February 3, 2013.

The Intangibles

Living here in Houston, tuned into sports radio and other forms of media, the great majority of Texans’ fans are convinced their team is primed for a playoff run even more gratifying than the only one they have experienced to date. 

The inevitable “ifs” will get thrown into the conversation: IF Matt Schaub stays healthy; IF Andre Johnson plays in enough games; IF the offensive line gels; IF Kubiak finally learns how to manage the clock; IF Kareem Jackson learns to follow the ball when it is airborne; etc.

But after the Luv Ya’ Blue era failed to deliver, after the Oilers coughed up a 32-point lead to Buffalo in the 1992 playoffs, after Bud Adams snatched that team away from them, after a decade of frustration with their expansion franchise, everyone in the Bayou City wants to believe their time has come. 

The question the next 17 weeks will answer is this: Do the players believe? None were but a twinkle in their fathers' eyes during Luv Ya’ Blue. To them, the Oilers’ history is as distant as the Lombardi era of the 1960s. 

Only a few on this roster have suffered through more than a season or two of disappointment as a member of this organization. That could be beneficial in the end, not having experienced the weight of the preceding decade of failure. 

But to the masses that have stuck with the Texans through thick and thin, doubt could creep in if injuries or losses start to mount. A sustained season of excellence would be the best preparation for a postseason of unparalleled success. 

The New Orleans Saints forged the same path when they won it all in 2009. This road may be the exception, but Houston is yearning for something exceptional to happen in the only sport that really matters in Texas.

Putting It All Together

As far as the AFC South goes, no one in the Texans family cannot afford to get too comfortable. This business of being the front-runner is unfamiliar territory, and losing more than two games to their division mates could prove fatal. 

Every franchise hopes for the blessings of good health, because in today’s NFL true depth throughout the lineup is rare. Houston will have to develop some of it in the receiver corps, offensive line and pass defense while the regular season is underway. 

Kubiak and Phillips must devise some new wrinkles here and there or risk becoming predictable. Execution is at the heart of every winning team, but creating uncertainty in the minds of your opponents goes a long way towards keeping them off-balance. 

A little luck would help matters tremendously. When the breaks start to go your way, a feeling of destiny can take hold. A tipped pass or fumble that falls into the right hands can work wonders. When setbacks come, as they always do, their effect can be limited to the moment. 

Whether it all comes to pass as outlined here is unlikely. If there is a blueprint that can lead Houston to triumph in Super Bowl XLVII, one thing is certain: The victory parade will be epic.