How Many Less Wins the Nets Can Expect with Brook Lopez Instead of Dwight Howard

If Brook Lopez signs a max contract with the Brooklyn Nets, it would knock the team out of the running for Dwight Howard, seeing as the Stanford product wouldn't be able to be traded until December. 

According to Yahoo! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, the Nets and Lopez are nearing a deal: 

"

Y! Sources: As time's running out on a Howard deal for Brooklyn, Brook Lopez nears agreement on max contract with Nets. tinyurl.com/86tgnwf

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojYahooNBA) July 11, 2012"

It's so obvious that I barely need to say it, but there's a massive difference between Lopez and Howard. Massive may be an understatement. 

Lopez is one of the most offensively skilled big men in the game and his offensive production is just about on the same level as Howard's.

However, Lopez doesn't understand the concept of rebounding and his defense is lackluster at best. Howard is one of the league's elite rebounders and he's got three Defensive Player of the Year trophies on his mantle. 

So, assuming that Wojnarowski is correct and the Nets are going to be lining up with Lopez at center, how many less wins can they expect? 

With "Superman" lining up in the paint, Brooklyn would immediately become the second-best team in the Eastern Conference (remember, Derrick Rose won't be with the Chicago Bulls for at least a large part of the regular season). With Lopez, they're around the third- or fourth-best team in the East.

Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace are a formidable trio no matter who is holding down the fort at center, and the addition of Mirza Teletovic could help immediately as well. Plus, there's MarShon Brooks off the bench. 

If Lopez is the starting center, the Nets are in the same tier as the Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks next season. But if you add Howard to the mix, they're clearly better than those three squads, despite the lack of immediate chemistry. 

Just for the sake of the argument, let's say that a Lopez-led squad finishes fourth in the conference, trailing the Heat, Celtics and Pacers. 

Here's the difference between the No. 2 and No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference over the last 10 seasons: 

	No. 2 Team	Wins	No. 4 Team	Wins	Difference
2011-2012	Miami Heat	46	Boston Celtics	39	7
2010-2011	Miami Heat	58	Orlando Magic	52	6
2009-2010	Orlando Magic	59	Boston Celtics	50	9
2008-2009	Boston Celtics	62	Atlanta Hawks	47	15
2007-2008	Detroit Pistons	59	Cleveland Cavaliers	45	14
2006-2007	Cleveland Cavaliers	50	Miami Heat	44	6
2005-2006	Miami Heat	52	Cleveland Cavaliers	50	2
2004-2005	Detroit Pistons	54	Chicago Bulls	47	7
2003-2004	New Jersey Nets	47	Miami Heat	42	5
2002-2003	New Jersey Nets	49	Philadelphia 76ers	48	1

With the number of teams in the same tier (the one right below the Miami Heat), it seems likely that the 2012-2013 season will be one of the more parity-filled campaigns in recent memory. 

I'd lean more towards a single-digit difference than one like 2007-2008 or 2008-2009. 

The safest bet is that the addition of Howard instead of Lopez would give the Nets about six or seven more victories during the 82-game regular season. 

However, there's a four-game difference that's even more important. 

With Lopez at center, Brooklyn isn't advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals. That's a different story with Howard. 

This team isn't going to be bad either way, but there is a significant difference between the two situations.