NBA Finals 2012: Breaking Down Each Team's Odds of Winning It All
The Boston Celtics. The San Antonio Spurs. The Miami Heat. The Oklahoma City Thunder.
Storied franchises and exciting young talent certainly abound in this 2012 edition of the NBA playoffs.
With both Conference Finals kicking off over memorial day weekend, it is time to assess each team's odds at hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy in a couple of weeks.
1. Boston Celtics
1 of 4How They Got Here
The Boston Celtics began their playoff run with a hard-fought six game series victory against the Atlanta Hawks. In Round 2, they were pushed to the brink by the upstart Philadelphia 76ers before Rajon Rondo's late game heroics helped them escape with the Game 7 victory. Coming off a short rest to begin Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, they were beaten soundly by the Miami Heat on Monday night.
Why They Can Win It All
Kevin Garnett has been playing like a man possessed so far during these playoffs. He has been deadly from the 18-20 foot range and has brought an inspiring tenacity to each playoff game for the Celtics.
Rajon Rondo can do just about everything on the court, and if he starts knocking down more outside jump shots, the Celtics' offense becomes virtually unstoppable.
Paul Pierce is still The Truth and has been providing timely scoring throughout the playoffs when the Celtics need it the most.
Despite the struggles of Ray Allen, there is still hope that one of the greatest shooters in the history of the game will turn his struggles around. Brandon Bass has stepped up nicely in the absence of Allen's normal scoring touch.
And finally, Doc Rivers have proven to still be one of the NBA's best coaches and has experience in guiding this team to an NBA Championship in the past.
What Could Go Wrong
Kevin Garnett's fire could wear off. Rajon Rondo's outside shot won't be developing anytime soon. Paul Pierce's elite scoring touch could turn into an aging shooting guard taking too many shots. Ray Allen could be at the end of his brilliant career. Brandon Bass cannot overcome the Miami Heat by himself.
Bottom Line
The pieces that the Celtics have, though aging, still might be capable of putting together one last championship run. However, the odds are stacked against them. Getting by a more talented Miami Heat team will be challenging enough, but even if they make it to the Finals, they will have either the San Antonio Spurs or Oklahoma City Thunder there waiting.
ODDS: 30 to 1
2. Miami Heat
2 of 4How They Got Here
The Miami Heat dispatched off an embattled New York Knicks team in five games in the opening round of their playoff run. In their second round matchup, the Indiana Pacers put them in a 2-1 hole before the Heat reeled off three consecutive victories to seal the deal in six. Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals resulted in a convincing Heat victory.
Why They Can Win It All
It's no secret that LeBron James is the best player in the league. Pairing him with the other-worldly Dwyane Wade can be unfair at times. When these two are simultaneously playing at their peak, the Heat are virtually impossible to beat.
If that wasn't enough, the pending return of All-Star forward Chris Bosh and timely contributions from the likes of Mario Chalmers, Shane Battier, Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem seem to signal that the Heat are ready to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy.
What Could Go Wrong
LeBron James could defer yet again when it comes to crunch time scenarios. Erik Spoelstra could be out-coached by Gregg Popovich or Doc Rivers. Chris Bosh could not return from his injury or simply not be the same player when he does indeed return. Dwyane Wade is not infallible (see Pacers series, Game 3).
Just as fast as we can term Mario Chalmers, Shane Battier, Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem "useful role players," is as fast as their performance can cause us to term them "worthless bums."
Bottom Line
If the Miami Heat do not win the NBA Championship, LeBron James will have to spend another offseason dealing with his harshest critics. Yet again, with a team named the San Antonio Spurs looming in the distance, are they really the favorites?
ODDS: 3 to 1
3. Oklahoma City Thunder
3 of 4How They Got Here
The Oklahoma City Thunder swept the defending NBA Champion Dallas Mavericks in Round 1 and only needed five games to dismiss the Los Angeles Lakers in Round 2. They currently find themselves in a 0-2 hole in the Western Conference Finals after the San Antonio Spurs held serve on their home court in the opening two games.
Why They Can Win It All
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are simply electric. Adding James Harden into the mix gives the Thunder arguably the best offensive trio of players in the NBA.
Speaking of trios, the defensive trio of Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha and Serge Ibaka can give the Thunder a fighting chance to lock down defensively on each position of the floor.
Derek Fisher is a heady player with experience who has been through his share of championship runs.
What Could Go Wrong
Being matched up against the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs can equal or better the Thunder in virtually every aspect of the game. The series so far has reminded me of the old song "Anything You Can Do" popularized by this commercial. This is the conversation I envision happening:
Spurs (to the Thunder): Anything you can do, we can do better.
Thunder: No you can't!
Spurs: Yes, we can.
Unfortunately for Thunder fans, the Spurs win this debate.
Bottom Line
The ultra-talented Thunder have a bright future. The problem is, the Spurs are the team of the present. If by some chance the Thunder were to get by the Spurs, they have a reasonably good chance to knock off the Heat/Celtics winner.
ODDS: 10 to 1
4. San Antonio Spurs
4 of 4How They Got Here
The San Antonio Spurs have won every game of the playoffs. Every. Single. Game. Thanks for playing, Utah. Better luck next year, Clippers. And, your time shall come Oklahoma City. Just not this year.
Why They Can Win It All
The better question might be: Why can't they win it all?
Tim Duncan is the best PF/C of this generation. Tony Parker is annually the most underrated PG in the NBA. Manu Ginobili has been spending most of the playoffs showing the NBA who the sixth man of the year should have been.
Kawhi Leonard, Gary Neal, Stephen Jackson and Danny Green are classic Gregg Popovich players who know their roles and preform them exceptionally.
Speaking of Gregg Popovich, out of the four remaining coaches in the NBA playoffs, who would you want leading your team?
And if you need any other reasons, just watch this highlight from last night's Western Conference Finals.
What Could Go Wrong
Despite being the current hottest team in the NBA, one should remember that the Spurs are not entirely infallible (see 2011 NBA playoffs). The electric Oklahoma City Thunder are not dead yet, and the Miami Heat would certainly be no pushover if the Spurs did make the NBA Finals.
Tony Parker could miss shots at some point. Tim Duncan is 36 years old. Manu Ginobili is 34. The role players—Kawhi Leonard, Gary Neal, Stephen Jackson and Danny Green could remind us all why they are exactly that—role players.
Bottom Line
The San Antonio Spurs are the odds-on favorites to raise the Larry O'Brien trophy at the end of these playoffs, but the Miami Heat could present them with a duel for the ages. My money is on Popovich, Duncan and Parker to come through with championship No. 5 (and the fourth for Ginobili).
ODDS: 3 to 2
