Are the Manning-Led Denver Broncos the AFC Favorites in 2012?

It's late March during the never-ending NFL calendar year, and most of the big free-agent signings have been completed.

Peyton Manning has signed with the Broncos; Brandon Lloyd has reunited with Josh McDaniels for a third tour with his favorite coach in New England; Mario Williams left Houston for Buffalo, and Tim Tebow was traded to the Jets.

From now until late April, all you'll really hear about is the NFL Draft. So although NFL rosters aren't even close to taking full shape, it is safe to say that most of the major pieces that will make an impact in the 2012 season have already been established.

Which means that it's never too early to ponder certain questions: Are the Denver Broncos the AFC favorites heading into the 2012 season? Or will the Broncos disappoint like the 2011 "Dream Team" Philadelphia Eagles?

Sure. It's the NFL, and anything can happen. Who would have expected the San Francisco 49ers to march one game away from a Super Bowl berth all because of the inclusion of Jim Harbaugh as head coach of the team?

But there is no denying that the Broncos have emerged as the team with the best pre-draft offseason by signing the top free-agent of all time, Peyton Manning. They also added two solid tight ends in Joel Dreesen and Jacob Tamme. They re-signed key linebackers Wesley Woodyard and Joe Mays and nabbed a quality starting corner, Tracy Porter

It's hard not to put the Broncos on the short list of AFC contenders heading into 2012.

The competition for AFC favorites heading into 2012 includes the usual suspects: the Patriots, the Ravens and the Texans.

The Pats still have glaring holes on defense and have failed to address those holes with major additions through free agency thus far.

However, they did make a big splash with the signing of Lloyd, which addressed their lack of a deep threat to stretch the field.

The Ravens haven't done anything of note through free agency. In fact, they lost starting G Ben Grubbs, DE Cory Redding and OLB Jarrett Johnson.

The Texans lost the second-best free agent on the market, DE Mario Williams.

However, Williams was out for the majority of the 2011 season, and they still had the fourth-best defense in the league.

As much of an impact player as Williams is, knowing Wade Phillips' ability to bring the best out of his players in the 3-4 defense, it shouldn't be too hard for the Texans to remain a top-tier defense without "Super Mario."

The Texans were able to retain the services of starting C Chris Myers but lost OT Eric Winston to the Chiefs.

Of the four teams, it's obvious that the Broncos had the best free agency period, but does that mean they enter 2012 as the favorites?

If you look at the teams purely on paper, the Broncos have an argument to be placed over all three of these teams.

Let's look at the things that we do know about the Broncos after the conclusion of the 2011 season.

The Broncos—despite the subtraction of Tim Tebow—are a great team running the football. They might not be the best team in all of the NFL at pounding the rock without Tebow, but they should still remain an above-average team at rushing.

With the old age of Willis McGahee—he'll be 31 in October—it's only fair to conclude that the Broncos will be looking for a young running back in the early-to-mid rounds of the draft in April.

John Fox has never had a problem establishing the running game, especially during his coaching years in Carolina.

The running game should not be an issue.

The defense—as hot and cold as it was in 2011—is a bit of a mystery.

The Broncos lost of one of the top free agents on the market, when they failed to re-sign starting DT Brodrick Bunkley. Bunkley brought stability to a rush defense that was terrible in 2010. His presence will be missed.

Denver will likely address this hole through the draft with a rookie in the first round.

However, the main issue that is brought up, and will be brought up until September, is the health of Peyton Manning's neck.

Can Manning's neck absorb the wear and tear of an NFL season?

The Broncos signed Caleb Hanie to be Manning's backup for 2012.  Therefore:

1. It means like Elway previously stated, there is no Plan B for Manning.

2. Hanie probably didn't have a large market out there after he went 0-4 as starting quarterback of the Bears and effectively killed their playoff hopes after the season-ending injury that Jay Cutler suffered. Did I mention that he got benched in favor of Josh McCown before the season came to an official close?

3. Not many quarterbacks wanted to sign in Denver, assuming that if Manning is to be healthy for an entire season, they wouldn't get many reps in practice. Why the hell else would Denver sign Hanie? The same reason why the Colts kept guys like Jim Sorgi and Curtis Painter around for so long, despite the fact that they never had futures in the NFL as starting quarterbacks.

4. The Broncos are screwed if Manning goes down.

Which brings me to my conclusion.

The Broncos have an above average running game; they have a solid defense that is developing and continuing to take shape, and they have a quarterback who is the league's only four-time MVP.

The only problem is he hasn't taken a snap in nearly two years.

Which means this. With the league the way it is currently constructed, you need to have a top-tier quarterback in order to win the Super Bowl.

Look at all of the quarterbacks who have led Super Bowl-winning teams since 2003: Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.

There isn't a single guy on that list who isn't an elite quarterback today.

This league is quarterback-driven more than ever before.

The Broncos may have questions when it pertains to their running game because of the loss of Tebow and due to the old age of McGahee.

They may have questions on defense, due to the unit's 24th-ranked finish in points allowed in 2011.

But the real question that needs to be answered is: Can Peyton Manning return to even three-fourths of the quarterback that he was in Indianapolis?

If it's a yes to that question, then the Broncos will be the team to beat in the AFC in 2012.

If it's a no to that question...

Prepare for the Caleb Hanie show.

Bears fans will tell you all about that one.