NBA Trade Rumors: Latest Odds on Players Being Dealt Before Deadline

The trade deadline draweth near. We are now three days and a few hours from the Thursday at 3:00 EST deadline, and as of yet, there has not been a trade deadline deal. 

There are still several names being bandied about, though. As is normally the case, this is the time when teams get serious and choose their dance partners. Up until now, it's all about feeling each other out, finding out who is serious about what and the like. 

Teams needing to make a move start backing off from their demands. The haggling gets a little more earnest. Tumblers start to fall in place and deals start getting done. 

So with all that said, who gets dealt this week? Which GMs are on the phone getting serious right now? 

Here are the biggest stars whose names are being mentioned and the likelihood they get dealt before Thursday.

Chances are listed as odds, not fractions. The first number represents what amount you would win on an outcome, the second what you would bet were you to place that bet. That means a "1/2" odds is not a 50 percent chance, but it means that you would have to bet two dollars in order to win one, whereas "2/1" means you would have to only bet one dollar to win two. 

Stephen Jackson

Trade Odds: 25/1

The relationship between Stephen Jackson and the Milwaukee Bucks hasn't been working out since the preseason. His feud with Scott Skiles has gotten to the point where the future between Jackson and the Bucks is assured of not happening. 

According to ESPN, "Sources say that the Bucks, at least for the moment, are insisting that any team that trades for Bogut take on the disgruntled Stephen Jackson as part of the trade."

However CBSSports.com says, "The market for Stephen Jackson has been understandably tepid. Interest in the Bucks' veteran has not necessarily been chilled by his ongoing feud with Scott Skiles, but rather a belief that Jackson could be a buyout candidate."

"Nobody's touching him unless it's a buyout," a rival executive said.

It's pretty evident that the Bucks aren't going to be able to include Jackson with or without Bogut, and they are going to be stuck with him. Look for a buyout very soon after the deadline. Don't be surprised to see him in a Bulls uniform before the season is over. 

Michael Beasley

Trade Odds: 1/2

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been committed to giving Derrick Williams more playing time, which is making Michael Beasley expendable. There is plenty of interest in Beasley. 

According to CBSSports.com, the  Lakers, Celtics, Magic and Nets are all interested in him.

What is heating up here is the talks with the New Jersey Nets, according to the New York Post:

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Minnesota’s Michael Beasley has been mentioned and the Nets have spoken with the Timberwolves. Beasley is a young talent, has a $6.2 million expiring contract and is represented by Jeff Schwartz, who is also Deron Williams’ agent. So an initial courtesy call may have turned into interest. 

"

Beasley would give the Nets a wing player and would give Williams another reason to stay in New Jersey. 

Jamal Crawford

Trade Odds: 5/2

It's pretty clear that the once promising Trail Blazers are now fumbling, and Jamal Crawford appears to be one of the players that will soon be packing his bags. 

They are looking to make a move, and Crawford is the most likely one to move, according to CBSSports.com, 

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The Trail Blazers have been among the most active teams, seeking to move Jamal Crawford and acquire a big man -- either in the same or separate deals.

The asking price for Crawford, however, includes a first-round pick in addition to Luke Ridnour (Timberwolves) or Eric Bledsoe (Clippers). Depending on what point guard the Blazers can bring back in a deal, they'd also be in a position to put Raymond Felton out of his misery. Felton's up-tempo style and Nate McMillan's deliberate offense clearly are not fitting together. "They've got to make major changes," one executive said. 

"

The problem with Crawford is that he has an option on the second year of his contract, and teams are concerned that he won't exercise it if they pick him up. 

Chris Kaman

Trade Chances: 6/1

According to SI.com, there is considerable interest in Chris Kaman. 

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Sources close to the situation said the Hornets continue to talk to teams about a possible Kaman trade, with the Rockets, Warriors, Heat, Pacers and Celtics among those still interested.

The NBA-owned Hornets, sources say, are looking for pieces in return that would help build their new foundation (i.e. draft picks or young players), and the odds appear slim that any of the teams will satisfy the league's demands. The Rockets and Warriors, specifically, continue to pursue Howard and would be hesitant to give up pieces in a Kaman deal first. 

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While there has been talk about the Heat, I just don't see that being a remote possibility. The size of his contract makes him unobtainable through trade. If it comes to a buyout, then the Pacers, who have shown considerable interest through trade, would have a huge advantage in terms of money. 

They are $14 million below the cap and could simply price Miami out of the picture. His chances of getting traded are all relative to what the Hornets (i.e. David Stern) are willing to take for him. 

Ray Allen

Trade Odds: 30/1

The most likely of the Celitcs big three to be traded is Ray Allen, though that seems largely unlikely, according to HoopsWorld:

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The Boston Celtics aren’t actively shopping Ray Allen, but they are accepting calls from teams. However, the general consensus around the league is that Boston is overvaluing Allen. Danny Ainge, the president of basketball operations for the Celtics, has been asking teams for a talented young player and a first-round pick in exchange for the 36-year-old.

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The 36-year-old Allen has a $10 million contract, and it's hard to envision what fair trade there is for him. Certainly, he brings a lot to the table, but for how long and at what cost? Acquiring him means shipping off $10 million in talent. If Ainge is asking for that alone, it's hard to swallow, but when you couple that with a first-round pick, it's just unrealistic. 

Josh Smith

Trade Odds: 10/1

There are conflicting reports on Josh Smith. First, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports:

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And the reasons for Smith’s dissatisfaction with the team now have to make the Hawks wonder if they will be able to sign him to a contract extension next season. By the end of last season Smith wanted out of Atlanta because he believed he was singled out for unfair criticism by coaches and media. Those concerns have died down for the most part this season but now Smith believes he needs a fresh start with a franchise where he can better reach his potential on and off the court, according to one of the people with knowledge of Smith’s thinking. 

"

But HoopsWorld is also reporting:

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Hawks’ sources denied that Smith was being actively shopped, but said that yesterday’s story has prompted more calls with Josh’s name attached, but that Josh’s name comes up a lot as teams try and poach real talent for the chips they do not want. 

"

If you put the two together, then you get the feeling that the Hawks are feeling better about Smith than Smith is about the Hawks. Whether they are actively shopping him or not, if the right deal comes along, there is a chance they would trade him. 

Andrew Bogut

Trade Odds: 12/1

The Milwaukee Bucks are shopping the former All-NBA third team center, Andrew Bogut, and there is considerable interest around the league, according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel:

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Bogut's agent, David Bauman, said Friday there was interest around the league regarding the 7-foot center. "There's a lot of teams interested in calling John," Bauman said of Bucks general manager John Hammond. "I don't know what they (the Bucks) will end up doing." 

"

There's a certain amount of frustration here. Bogut has shown that he can be one of the top centers in the league when he's healthy, but therein lies the problem. He can't seem to stay healthy. 

There's also this report that Bogut asked to be moved, according to the Washington Post:

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According to a league source, Bogut has requested to be moved, but the Wizards don’t have the resources to match up with his $12 million salary. McGee earns $2.5 million in his fourth season.

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So Bogut isn't happy and the Bucks aren't happy? That's a combination that points to a trade. 

Steve Nash

Trade Odds: 35/1

For awhile, it looked like there might be a small chance that Nash would get traded, but that is looking less and less likely now, according to reports from CBSSports.com:

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Steve Nash is said to be "pretty content" with staying with the Suns, but that's more due to his personality and "not wanting to be the bad guy" than his belief that he can finish his career on a winning note there, a person connected to the point guard said. 

"He'd like to go and win," the person said, "but he's not prepared to play the Carmelo [Anthony] card." It is believed that the Suns would respectfully try to honor a trade request if Nash made one, but it's not his style to ask out and he feels tremendous loyalty toward the organization. 

"

In other words, Nash is just too nice a guy to ask out, and the Suns aren't going to do it unless he asks. 

Monta Ellis

Trade Odds: 15/1

Monta Ellis could be on the move, although right now, the Warriors' stance is that it would only be in exchange for Dwight Howard, according to CBSSports.com:

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League sources say the Warriors have informed teams that they're only interested in moving Monta Ellis in a trade with Orlando that lands them Dwight Howard. Rival executives are skeptical that Golden State would give up significant assets (such as Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Ekpe Udoh) without a long-term commitment from Howard, who has indicated that the Bay Area is not on his list of preferred destinations. 

"

However, Chad Ford of ESPN.com says:

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The Warriors really need a big man, which makes a deal tough because most GMs aren't willing to trade big for small. But if the Warriors would be willing to take back Amare Stoudemire from the Knicks or if the Hawks were willing to swap Smith for Ellis, I think there's a deal to be had.

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I think if you put the two together, there's a reasonable position that the Warriors would be willing to expand the scope of big men they would trade for. A player like Andrew Bogut would fit the bill.  

Rajon Rondo

Trade Odds: 10/1

The Rajon Rondo talk just won't die. Right now, it seems that the most likely trade situation isn't that likely, with Rondo going to the Lakers for Pau Gasol. But the Lakers are reluctant to make the move, according to the Los Angeles Times:

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The Lakers are unwilling to trade Pau Gasol for Rondo, making a deal with Boston unlikely before the trade deadline Thursday. "Unless they give up Gasol, they're not going to get a top-level point guard," said a person familiar with the situation but not authorized to discuss it publicly.

"

I'll predict that if Rondo goes anywhere, it will be to the Lakers for Gasol, so I suppose it all depends on your feeling about how likely that is to happen. 

Pau Gasol

Trade Odds: 10/1

The same that is said of Rondo can now be said of Gasol. If you missed it on the previous slide, here it is again. According to the Los Angeles Times:

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The Lakers are unwilling to trade Pau Gasol for Rondo, making a deal with Boston unlikely before the trade deadline Thursday. "Unless they give up Gasol, they're not going to get a top-level point guard," said a person familiar with the situation but not authorized to discuss it publicly. 

"

The only way I see either of these two being dealt is for each other, and that depends on L.A.'s willingness to pull the trigger, which they should. Rondo would be a great point guard to run the Lake Show.  

Dwight Howard

Trade Odds: 5/1

At the moment, the Magic seem to be moving more in the direction of not trading Howard. Apparently, the only team that could offer a package they want doesn't want to offer them the package since the superstar center doesn't want to add Chicago to the list. 

According to Ken Berger of CBSSports.com,

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The Orlando Magic would like to seriously engage the Bulls in trade talks for Dwight Howard, but the All-Star center's apparent reluctance to make a long-term commitment to Chicago has all but killed the discussions, league sources told CBSSports.com.

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Then there is the other side of the story, according to Berger:

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The feeling among rival executives remains that the Magic seem intent on rolling the dice and keeping Howard for the rest of the season, hoping a long playoff run, emotional ties to Orlando and an extra year and $29 million they could offer would persuade him to stay beyond this season. But the move would be highly risky, given that Howard has refused to publicly commit to the Magic -- a stance that sources view as a strong sign that he'd leave as a free agent if he isn't traded. "He's telling everyone he's leaving," one league source said Sunday.

"

There are two possibilities here. First, Howard could publicly state that he'd be willing to commit to Chicago, which would be a real game-changer. The other is that GM Otis Smith hits the last-minute panic button and either send Howard off to a "renter" or one of the teams on the list. 

So there's still a good chance Howard gets traded, but if he does, it wouldn't be until Wednesday or Thursday.